Unknown's avatar

The Derby First Round Heats – Wednesday Thoughts

So here we go!  Over 250 of my colleagues will descend on Wimbledon over the next 4 nights as the Derby First Round looks to be the hardest to actually qualify out of this year!  With only two hounds through from each heat, this is all about dodging a bullet over the coming evenings and progressing to the more manageable and achievable 3 from each heat from herein.  An unprecedented Wednesday start for England’s Premier competition because of the sheer volume of entrants has a watching brief feel to it with many unknown quantites from Ireland (for us British hounds at least) and some races that could be run differently numerous times!  That barked, there is some value still out there for the Lolly Faithful and whilst we’ll be keeping our beloved doggie treats firmly in the cupboard for bigger plays later in the week, I have still found some bets for this evening for us:

19:39 – Heat 1

A cracking race to kick off the 2015 Derby sees Puppy Derby winner Lenson Sanchez looking to build on his unfortunate Scottish Derby Final defeat where he very nearly made the bend.  He has a huge affinity with this Plough Lane circuit and he can lead his kennelmate, Paradise Maverik, and hold the challenge of his compatriot.  Ballymac Mossjoe showed so much promise as a young tyke but is regressive.

19:54 – Heat 2

Some huge early in this heat but with question marks over 2014 finalist Crokers Champ’s true fitness following a long lay-off, preference is given to Rio Quattro who is as quick as any hound in training when he fancies it.  Droopys Norris has also had his setbacks and is perhaps getting old so Quattro can lead him and Arc finalist Loughteen Eoin (who was not originally an intended runner in this competition) and if Champ is feeling any rustiness, the son of Droopys Geneva can account for these.  Thatchers Champ was a Quarter-Finalist last year and could be a threat out wide if bringing that sort of form but he’s not been setting the world alight with his trials of late.

20:10 – Heat 3

This looks a penalty kick with his paw for Irish entrant Slippery Fred who has some eye-catching form to his name and was just denied a Category One success behind Quietly over on those shores.  It’s hard to see who can get competitive with that level and only a slightly paw trial from him (bumped around) can see him as big as 1/2.  Impossible to oppose.

20:26 – Heat 4

The much barked about Juvenile rematch between Newinn Yolo and Ballymac Brogan has a different make-up this time and they could actually both struggle to get their favoured positions.  Yolo will need to be sharp at the boxes as Teejays Panther next to him can come out and hugs the rails tightly; there is no doubt that Yolo is flying and rightful favourite tonight, though.  The dog that I think is overpriced is Conna Trigger who hopefully can cope with the journey down from Sunderland to bring his trapping boots and lead the quick-away Brogan.  I’m not convinced Brogan likes dogs in front of him and if any dog is capable of pinging round Wimbledon, it’s Trigger, who surely has his favourite box this evening.

20:42 – Heat 5

Antepost second-favourite Farloe Blitz here has a tough race on his paws considering he’d probably have liked to have progressed serenely before the real challenge of Quarter-Final week.  Domino Storm is absolutely flying on his inside and the well-bred bitch is capable of flying out and hampering him.  Roxholme Ted is not short of early as he demonstrated to devastating effect last year in this competition (where he went favourite) but a question mark is whether his niggles and his dislike of 5 might hinder him too much.  The dog that is value if this gets messy is Jaytee Dutch who has been flying in Ireland, is as strong as an ox, and has a real chance of going deep in the tournament if he can negotiate this awkward and perilous heat.

20:58 – Heat 6

Farloe Nutter and King Dec like to dictate from the front and they are arguably boxed the wrong way round tonight so it might be worth looking to one of the unexposed bigger priced colleagues of mine to cause a minor upset.  That pressure falls on the shoulders of Ivy Hill Bart who has patchy form but can clearly run, has a lovely draw to work from, and can swoop round the feuding railers if they hinder each other.

21:15 – Heat 7

The best bet of the night is in this heat where Jaytee Jet was absolutely flying after a tardy start to really get after Ballymac Brogan in a trial stakes.  It was visually the most impressive performance of that night and he has been on pretty much every human and dog’s radar alike to see where he turned up in the first round; he’s turned up in a winnable heat.  Swift Kidman is well-bred (sister to Domino Storm etc.) but she’s not absolutely rapid (like Brogan) so Jet can mow these down and make it a double for his litter in just over half an hour.

21:32 – Heat 8

In a race full of early-paced railers there has to be a chance of some trouble.  Gooch, Premier, Castle and Manix all have about the same pace to my well-trained sprinter’s eyes and with that in mind, the value in this race is for the progressive Sing Song Man to lead the aging Up To It and account for any jostling that occurs on the inside.  He might not be able to but he stays the 515m strong enough at Hove and it is hard to say who will lead that inside 4 in my dog’s honest opinion.

21:48 – Heat 9

Bellmore Neymar came to my attention when I was having a lap of milk out of a bowl near the kenneling area and I looked up to see him lead Scottish Derby winner Swift Hoffman for 3 bends in his first trial round Wimbledon.  He followed that with a commanding performance against Charlie Lister’s very useful Boyneside Fun and with those performances he can win this and maintain his unbeaten record in races.  On Alert flew round a very quick track and is hence favourite but Neymar looks a rare type of special dog to me.  Ballymac Vickson does not like dogs near him at the first bend and it’s hard to see him getting an uncontested lead from so far out because he likes to chop the bend.

22:03 – Heat 10

Diego Flight has been powering round Wimbledon and looks a really progressive type but he might have bumped into one here with the unexposed Irish raider Ring Ben.  Ben has laid down a serious time in his trial and with a complete solo on the rails, it will take Diego to literally fly to catch him tonight: this should be a great race.

Here are the recommendations:

21:15 – Jaytee Jet – 1 doggie treat @ 6/4

21:48 – Bellmore Neymar – 1 piece of bread @ 9/4

22:03 – Ring Ben – 1 dog bone @ 15/8

So there are my thoughts on the proceedings!  As ever, please tweet me if you have any comments and I promise to bark back at you faster than Neymar scores for us this evening!  It’s a pretty good card for an opening night of the Derby, good luck to all hounds and their humans, and bring it on!

Enjoy the racing,

Jimmy

Leave a comment