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The Derby First Round Heats – Wednesday Thoughts

So here we go!  Over 250 of my colleagues will descend on Wimbledon over the next 4 nights as the Derby First Round looks to be the hardest to actually qualify out of this year!  With only two hounds through from each heat, this is all about dodging a bullet over the coming evenings and progressing to the more manageable and achievable 3 from each heat from herein.  An unprecedented Wednesday start for England’s Premier competition because of the sheer volume of entrants has a watching brief feel to it with many unknown quantites from Ireland (for us British hounds at least) and some races that could be run differently numerous times!  That barked, there is some value still out there for the Lolly Faithful and whilst we’ll be keeping our beloved doggie treats firmly in the cupboard for bigger plays later in the week, I have still found some bets for this evening for us:

19:39 – Heat 1

A cracking race to kick off the 2015 Derby sees Puppy Derby winner Lenson Sanchez looking to build on his unfortunate Scottish Derby Final defeat where he very nearly made the bend.  He has a huge affinity with this Plough Lane circuit and he can lead his kennelmate, Paradise Maverik, and hold the challenge of his compatriot.  Ballymac Mossjoe showed so much promise as a young tyke but is regressive.

19:54 – Heat 2

Some huge early in this heat but with question marks over 2014 finalist Crokers Champ’s true fitness following a long lay-off, preference is given to Rio Quattro who is as quick as any hound in training when he fancies it.  Droopys Norris has also had his setbacks and is perhaps getting old so Quattro can lead him and Arc finalist Loughteen Eoin (who was not originally an intended runner in this competition) and if Champ is feeling any rustiness, the son of Droopys Geneva can account for these.  Thatchers Champ was a Quarter-Finalist last year and could be a threat out wide if bringing that sort of form but he’s not been setting the world alight with his trials of late.

20:10 – Heat 3

This looks a penalty kick with his paw for Irish entrant Slippery Fred who has some eye-catching form to his name and was just denied a Category One success behind Quietly over on those shores.  It’s hard to see who can get competitive with that level and only a slightly paw trial from him (bumped around) can see him as big as 1/2.  Impossible to oppose.

20:26 – Heat 4

The much barked about Juvenile rematch between Newinn Yolo and Ballymac Brogan has a different make-up this time and they could actually both struggle to get their favoured positions.  Yolo will need to be sharp at the boxes as Teejays Panther next to him can come out and hugs the rails tightly; there is no doubt that Yolo is flying and rightful favourite tonight, though.  The dog that I think is overpriced is Conna Trigger who hopefully can cope with the journey down from Sunderland to bring his trapping boots and lead the quick-away Brogan.  I’m not convinced Brogan likes dogs in front of him and if any dog is capable of pinging round Wimbledon, it’s Trigger, who surely has his favourite box this evening.

20:42 – Heat 5

Antepost second-favourite Farloe Blitz here has a tough race on his paws considering he’d probably have liked to have progressed serenely before the real challenge of Quarter-Final week.  Domino Storm is absolutely flying on his inside and the well-bred bitch is capable of flying out and hampering him.  Roxholme Ted is not short of early as he demonstrated to devastating effect last year in this competition (where he went favourite) but a question mark is whether his niggles and his dislike of 5 might hinder him too much.  The dog that is value if this gets messy is Jaytee Dutch who has been flying in Ireland, is as strong as an ox, and has a real chance of going deep in the tournament if he can negotiate this awkward and perilous heat.

20:58 – Heat 6

Farloe Nutter and King Dec like to dictate from the front and they are arguably boxed the wrong way round tonight so it might be worth looking to one of the unexposed bigger priced colleagues of mine to cause a minor upset.  That pressure falls on the shoulders of Ivy Hill Bart who has patchy form but can clearly run, has a lovely draw to work from, and can swoop round the feuding railers if they hinder each other.

21:15 – Heat 7

The best bet of the night is in this heat where Jaytee Jet was absolutely flying after a tardy start to really get after Ballymac Brogan in a trial stakes.  It was visually the most impressive performance of that night and he has been on pretty much every human and dog’s radar alike to see where he turned up in the first round; he’s turned up in a winnable heat.  Swift Kidman is well-bred (sister to Domino Storm etc.) but she’s not absolutely rapid (like Brogan) so Jet can mow these down and make it a double for his litter in just over half an hour.

21:32 – Heat 8

In a race full of early-paced railers there has to be a chance of some trouble.  Gooch, Premier, Castle and Manix all have about the same pace to my well-trained sprinter’s eyes and with that in mind, the value in this race is for the progressive Sing Song Man to lead the aging Up To It and account for any jostling that occurs on the inside.  He might not be able to but he stays the 515m strong enough at Hove and it is hard to say who will lead that inside 4 in my dog’s honest opinion.

21:48 – Heat 9

Bellmore Neymar came to my attention when I was having a lap of milk out of a bowl near the kenneling area and I looked up to see him lead Scottish Derby winner Swift Hoffman for 3 bends in his first trial round Wimbledon.  He followed that with a commanding performance against Charlie Lister’s very useful Boyneside Fun and with those performances he can win this and maintain his unbeaten record in races.  On Alert flew round a very quick track and is hence favourite but Neymar looks a rare type of special dog to me.  Ballymac Vickson does not like dogs near him at the first bend and it’s hard to see him getting an uncontested lead from so far out because he likes to chop the bend.

22:03 – Heat 10

Diego Flight has been powering round Wimbledon and looks a really progressive type but he might have bumped into one here with the unexposed Irish raider Ring Ben.  Ben has laid down a serious time in his trial and with a complete solo on the rails, it will take Diego to literally fly to catch him tonight: this should be a great race.

Here are the recommendations:

21:15 – Jaytee Jet – 1 doggie treat @ 6/4

21:48 – Bellmore Neymar – 1 piece of bread @ 9/4

22:03 – Ring Ben – 1 dog bone @ 15/8

So there are my thoughts on the proceedings!  As ever, please tweet me if you have any comments and I promise to bark back at you faster than Neymar scores for us this evening!  It’s a pretty good card for an opening night of the Derby, good luck to all hounds and their humans, and bring it on!

Enjoy the racing,

Jimmy

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Regency Final + Supporting Sky Card Thoughts

With the Derby fast approaching we are honoured with a tantalising final to the Regency tonight with some seriously fast hounds going further than no hound should have gone before.  My human friends @TheAntePostmen are on Market Heights each-way at 66/1 but they are surely just hoping for a place as the favourite looks to be drawn to attack like he did so impressively in the Semi-Final when pinging nearly as well as me.  Elsewhere on the card, we are treated to a variety of distances and challenges for my colleagues although the decision to run everyone’s favourite race, the sprint, before the Sky cameras roll is surely a complete mistake and so I forgive the humans in charge for their error.  With the Derby dogs all gearing up for their assault on the 250,000 doggie treats, the 4 bend action is not as classy as it can be on a Sky night although there are some useful prospects going round and once 2014 Derby favourite Swift Keith graces the sand at 20:51.  It should be a great night and as ever, I have found the value for the Lolly Faithful:

19:11 – 475m

This quirky trip plays right into the pinging paws of Evanta Evita who has her box tonight and is 6 from 7 over the course and distance.  It’s hard to argue against this likeable bitch who could ruffle a few hairs in the Derby itself during the early rounds with her early pace and feisty attitude.  Loughteen Pedro is a nice sort round here over this trip but he faces a draw outside a pinging bitch this evening and he would ideally like to be in the red trap himself.  Ballygibbon King has lovely back straight pace when he can get on the bunny but I’m unsure if he’s entirely suited to this unique test, especially from an unfavourable draw as he prefers 4 or 5.  Spray Tan caused a minor upset when last seen over the trip but it’s hard to see her compete against this class of dog and whilst Shotgun Harley has been flying of late, he left himself badly at the start when last twice seen and he cannot afford to that this evening, surely.

19:26 – Standard

The well-bred Swift Leonard (half-brother of Swift Hoffman, You Never Listen, Domino Storm etc.) was expected to excel over this galloping circuit last week but after turning second he proved a bitter disappointment and faded down the field; whether that was due to his first look or not is a question to be pondered but it’s hard to make a case for him and the elegant, galloping stride of Crossfield Cesar is hard to oppose on his reappearance here since obliterating a lesser field on debut.  He has since gone quicker twice in trials round the circuit so it’s an ominous sign for his rivals: any odds-against at any point is too big.

19:43 – Stayers

Droopys Flash is arguably the best drawn dog on the card (and that includes Marmalady later with a vacant trap next to her!) as Woodmancote Bert drops himself out and then flies through the final 200m.  Behind Touch Tackle last week, though, Bert’s effort was admirable as he picked off Farley Rio (Irish Derby round winner and Sunderland Grand Prix finalist over a trip) and Droopys Tamera (litter sister to Millwards Teddy) and nearly caught Tybar Hondo on the line.  Whether he was fully chasing the bunny is debatable but if he repeats that effort tonight, he is surely too big to win this by a short-head or greater.  Black Francis has nice early so he can disrupt Flash’s flow and whilst Swift Nemo landed a touch at Romford last Friday for many a human and dog-alike (Lolly Faithful NAP) this is a huge step up in class and she is drawn badly (as a railer).  Bert can overpower these in the dying strides.

19:59 – Bitches

I love a good bitches race and here I will be on the edge of my sofa as 4 really nice looking gals battle out the rails for the honours.  Jaytee Firefly will fly out but has been struggling to get the trip, Domino Storm will cut across and pester her and Westmead Lola will battle hard to overcome that pair but the bitch I want to side with is Glenpadden Love who is not travelling down here to be the bridesmaid.  She’s had some nice performances at Perry Barr, her litter has pace and stays, and she is more than entitled to stay handy to the leading trio and account from them if she can secure a path through.  Marmalady chased down Dower Matt (won since against top class dogs) at Romford but her Hove record is one to put paws over her eyes, and mine.

20:16 – Marathon

Greyhounds are not designed to run 930m but here we are with 6 lunatics having a go over this trip that is 625m past our best: Alma Prince needs this far.  Arguably the most unlucky of the semi-finalists to be knocked out of the Regency, this dog has been absolutely flying at the death and I will hang my two front paws up in shame if he does not get this trip; he will need to as Fizzypop Magic will set a gallop now she is back to some sort of form and Musical Fawn stays 3km let alone 930m.  All that barked, this is a real opportunity for Prince to lay down a marker as a serious dog over a marathon trip where you bark the question throughout: “where is he?!”

20:33 – Hurdle

The dogs have a go here at a sport in which I would certainly have banged my head on the first obstacle and the old timer Soviet Military is showing no signs that he wants his sofa yet: he can make-all.  The dangers are Lenson Royale who has yet to show his Irish prowess yet and Scolari Express is always a capable sort at probably a level below this; the biggest danger is Razldazl Bigbear getting a clear run as he showed frightening tenacity a couple of weeks ago to be knocked on the run-up, outpaced down the back and then surge late to not only claim Express, but run away from him.  That barked, Military has too many gears for these if he can negotiate a slightly perturbing 5 draw for this natural wide talented hurdler.

20:51 – Standard

Swift Keith is rightly favourite here but despite his age, he has had a lot of races in top, top class company and maybe he is a dog to take on with something consistent.  It’s the hardest race on the card, even for me, but I’m siding with Jet Stream Smurf who has taken a liking to this track for Kevin Hutton ever since his first look round here.  He is well-drawn next to the tardy early, wide and often flattering to deceive Droopys Jarrow and Vanfrankie who lacks the sort of early needed for this trip.  If Joes Mixa can get anywhere near Keith early on (he went off long odds-on for his British debut) and Keith is not quite his formidable best, then Smurf can turn handy and show all of his reallly likeable attitude.  It seems strange to me that Keith is going for this before his tilt at the Derby for a second time; maybe it’s because of the Sky night, or maybe he has lost some of his zest: we shall see!

21:08 – Regency Final

What a final this is!  Millwards Teddy is a danger to all if he turns up with his best paw forward as he has gears at any point in any race; Swansalona Diva has shown a superb attitude througout her career and her connections fancy her to steal a march on these; Droopys Cottage is the bitch that will never go away and can never be discounted but has to lead the 1; Market Heights needs to ping like he did in the first round and use his grinding staying ability to his best; Tybar Hondo simply has to lead but I struggle to see why he’s so big at 33/1!  The reason he is, is simply because Touch Tackle pinged from 1 in the first round and is simply a joy to watch in fully flight.  It would be remiss of me not to bark about his brother, Billys Bullet, who broke down in the first round when setting an unbelievable gallop but he is now happily recooperating in his kennel before he gets his sofa in his human’s home: fully deserved!  Let’s hope one of his brothers brings it home for the family:  Tackle or Heights.

Here are the recommendations:

19:43 – Woodmancote Bert – 1 doggie treat @ 8/1

19:59 – Glenpadden Love – 1 breast of chicken @ 5/1

20:16 – Alma Prince – 1 piece of bread @ 7/4

So there are my thoughts on the proceedings! As ever, please tweet me and I promise to bark back at you with more enthusiasm than Bert shows when he’s chasing the leaders in the stayers’ race!  It should be a great night, on the near eve of the Derby, and let’s hope one of Billys Bullet’s brothers does it for the great stayer that he was, and would have become!

Enjoy the racing,

Jimmy

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Pinpoint Healthcare Final + Supporting Sky Card Thoughts

A welcome addition to the greyhound calendar this evening sees the Pinpoint Healthcare Final adorn the Sky cameras in a new slot for Newcastle on TV.  The heats threw up few surprises and so tonight we will see a fascinating battle between the early-paced types and whether the stronger dogs can catch them on a likely quick Sky track.  Elsewhere, the card has a feel of it being a favourite’s night off the front and whilst that was a dangerous approach to adopt at Newcastle in years gone by, those pesky bookmakers have gradually got the lively locals down to the prices they should be (when we used to get ludicrous prices on them!).  With that balanced out, it means that the established open racing sorts look on the big side in a few affairs this evening and that’s where, as ever, I have found the value for the Lolly Faithful:

19:11 – Puppy

The young tykes have a go in the opener and in it we have the very useful prospect Droopys Vodka who is a local that thrived on being in the 3 box last week and can make-all again tonight.  Swift Carter is a gutsy hound who is always good for a place and a straight forecast of those two is a consideration; that barked, Calzaghe Lisa caught the eye last week behind Vodka and might spoil the party for those backing what appears a very readable 1-2.

19:26 – Sprint

Everyone’s favourite race can go the way of the best sprinter in the country: Walshes Hill.

19:43 – British Bred

The best bred hounds in the world compete here and whilst he has just become a veteran, the admirable Hadrians Wall can show that he’s not quite ready for his sofa just yet.  Quick enough still to come second to Walshes Hill in a sprint last week (beaten out of sight, mind) that shows that he can still shift and he’s a jealous sort on the bunny. The 2 and the 3 are slow-away types so Wall can lead them and if he can get a length ahead of Burnfoot Alpha, it will take a very good effort from that dog to pick him up.  9/2 looks too big on the Newcastle stalwart.

19:59 – Seniors

The greybeards show the young tykes how it’s done here and Greenwell Lark is holding her form well so the ever-dependable bitch can beat her fellow pensioners here.  Scotswood Road doesn’t come out, especially from 5, so Lark has a great run to the bend and she is definitely not for picking up if she leads and has enough back straight pace to catch any of these if they get a march on her.  Killacola Ka Ka is a local who can be useful if he gets a sight of the bunny but I’d be happy for Lark to turn behind him and pick him up; Pond Mozart is in his box but is perhaps showing his age more than his compatriots here.

20:16 – Stayers

Lowgate Jasper has been competing against the best staying types in the country and holding his head up high against them with some eye-catching displays.  The way he picked up a decent field in the 480m round of the 3 Steps to Victory was a particularly useful effort and that form surely sees him go clear here and beat these.  The danger is Magical Reid who makes his staying bow-wow and has always looked a powerful galloper round Newcastle; his problem is that he’s a natural railer so 3 might not be conducive to him getting a clear if the 1 or 2 come out at all and if he gets an interrupted passage, it’s hard to see him picking up Jasper unless his next assignment is taking off at Newcastle airport.

20:33 – Standard

A decent race this with proven Category One winners taking each other on from pretty favourable draws for the field.  Calzaghe George could lead which would surely see him cut loose on a fast Sky track, but the selection is Northern Puppy Derby winner Kneejerkreaction who loves it round here and especially from trap 4.  He can lead the 2014 Monmore Puppy Derby winner Farloe Nutter (failed to progress significantly since) and at least follow George down the back where he can outstay him.  The concern is that he’s like his brothers who have struggled since being stepped up into all-aged company but he should still arguably be favourite in this as drawn.  Good race.

20:51 – Maiden Final

The withdrawal of the 6 has given the 5 a great chance of catching Pinpoint Classic this evening but it is still worth playing Kelly Macari’s charge to set a ferocious pace on a quick Sky track.  Sub-4.60 sectionals are flying round Brough Park and whilst he would probably prefer to be in 4 rather than 2, he will edge across and lead these at the bend by 1 or 2 lengths.  The 1 is very well drawn and if it can run like anything at all, it surely goes close.  Not close enough, though.

21:08 – Pinpoint Healthcare Final

A fascinating final of this inaugural tournament here as Pinpoint Finas and Conna Trigger attempt to lead early and not be caught this evening.  Their main problem, however, could be each other as in all likelinesss they’ll be together down the back and probably exert themselves too much trying to beat the other: look behind you lads! Newinn Yolo is an extremely fast colleague of mine and whilst he broke his trap 1 voodoo in the heats, he was arguably fortunate to turn the bend unscathed from a tardy start and was chasing Trigger who had missed the break and was thus closer than he could have been.  The value in this race is my fellow tweeting greyhound @VikingJackDog.  A clever hound not only with his typing but on the sand, he swooped round the outside in the heats and then cleverly cut inside a tiring Pinpoint Finas to assert by the line.  With the likely ferocious pace up front, he can turn 3rd and time his challenge to perfection.  He is capable of having a shocker from the boxes and I’ve had barks with him about that (just ping like me, it’s not hard?) but if he can reproduce his 4.60 sectional from the heats then he can capitalise on a shrewd move by his connections to take him up to a track that is tailor-made to his strengths.

Here are the recommendations:

19:43 – Hadrians Wall – 1 doggie treat @ 9/2

19:59 – Greenwell Lark – 1 breast of chicken @ 7/4

20:16 – Lowgate Jasper – 1 piece of bread @ 7/4

20:51 – Pinpoint Classic – 1 dog bone @ 7/4

21:08 – Viking Jack – 1 chewstick @ 5/2

So there are my thoughts on the proceedings!  As ever, please tweet me if you have any comments and I promise to bark back at you faster than Walshes Hill comes out of his favourite traps tonight!  It should be a great night as it always is at Newcastle, and let’s hope we are on the right side of those pesky bookmakers!

Enjoy the racing,

Jimmy