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3 Steps to Victory Final + Supporting Sky Card Thoughts

A fascinating card this evening in front of the Sky cameras culminates with Roxholme Dream looking to add this unique tournament over various distances to her St. Leger crown last year; she’s odds-on to do so but the value is surely elsewhere.  That race, however, probably isn’t the most anticipated on the card as we see one of the great sprint races that I can remember lining up in the 7:26.  It’s that good even I would have had to have been on my toes in it, as a winner, naturally.  The rest of the night sees some decent action as well as the Derby dogs start to reemerge from their Winter holidays and so all in all, it should be a great night’s racing!  As ever, I have found the value for the Lolly Faithful:

19:11 – Puppy

The young tykes have a go to start off the action and this looks a good tussle between Monmore Puppy Derby winner Glenpadden Lord and Swift Whirlwind.  Preference is for the latter who caught Southfield Jock (won since) at Sittingbourne two starts ago and that does not paint the entire doggie picture as Whirlwind had enough early that day to turn a clear second: he can lead tonight.  If he does he stays 500m and it will be hard for Lord to catch him.  Lord himself also probably wants to be drawn in red and so trap 2 might present a concern for his backers should he show his relative inexperience and step left out of the boxes: there will be a dog there!

19:26 – Sprint

Everyone’s favourite race on a normal card has been elevated even further here with arguably 6 of the top 7 sprinters in the country lining up in this mouth-watering affair.  The draw has also thrown up some conundrums and whilst any of these are capable of pinging like me and putting this affair to their doggie bed, there is still value to be had in the drifting Walshes Hill.  He came out at Newcastle in arguably the quickest fashion I have ever seen live (I could obviously not watch myself back in the day as I was chasing that pesky hare) and now with a couple of sighters of the Sheffield boxes, he is capable of repeating that dose that saw him rack up a huge winning streak following his debut on these shores.  The favourite is a worthy one in Target Harris but he can miss the break (more consistently of late, admittedly) and he could face a wall of traffic as United Leeds attempts to go rails and he moves middle.  The gamble on Conna Trigger seems misplaced to me as he is a wide dog so I’m not sure trap 3 will really help him; he is also arguably a pinging early-paced short-four bend dog rather than a sprinter and these are seriously useful that he’s facing tonight!  Sidarian Bullet is unbeaten in sprints but he has not faced anything like the opposition he is tonight so if he wins, full credit to him but he’s the right price.  Geelo Vegas has sadly lost his way following his National Sprint win at the back end of last year but he is capable of beating even these on his day.  All in all, Hill is too big to use his fairly useful draw and assert himself as the top sprinter in the country.

19:43 – British Bred

The best bred dogs in the world line up here and in Calco Flyer there is a very useful sort with a good draw to take full advantage of.  Klockwork Kannon does not rail next to him so Mark Wallis’ charge can use the rails and assert on the inside.  It’s hard to make a case for the others as Pond Mozart is pretty old these days but it is always worth respecting local runners around this circuit due to their strength in depth, so it would be no surprise if the 5 turns up.

19:59 – Veterans

The old boys show them how it’s done here and in Pinpoint Finas I think there is a vulnerable favourite.  He will almost certainly lead these a long way but he simply does not stay the 480m and I can see one of his rivals mowing him down.  That task has fallen to Fridays Daryl who can turn handy enough to Finas to get first run on him and see just how much life is left in those creaking bones turning the 4th bend!  Hather George is a legend but has looked like he needs a sofa all year.

20:16 – Stayers

Billys Bullet’s brother, Touch Tackle, runs in the race before the cameras roll as a 1/2 shot and that’s the price Bullet should be in my dog’s honest opinion.  He is flying at the moment and only an inspired front-running performance from Fivestar Clipper denied him a win in the Monmore 630m Festival final.  With the 2 dogs on his inside not conducive to coming out he has the potential to turn seriously close to this field and he is a relentless galloping sort with a change of gear that can be utilised at any given moment.  Evens quotes that are dotted about are way off the mark!

20:33 – Standard

With likely pace-setters Droopys Alessio and Ballymac Vickson likely to tussle out in front, the value here is to side with Making Paper to catch them from a decent enough draw.  Alessio and Vickson are both pinging sorts but whether they get 480m is another question and Paper has shown enough desire and trackcraft in recent weeks to take this.

20:51 – Derby Trial Stakes

This unique promotion of whoever wins this race is automatically into the Derby has attracted a stellar field.  There has been a monumental gamble on my fellow tweeting hound @vikingjackdog as he was desperately unlucky to be eliminated from the 3 Steps tournament (completely fluffed the start) at the semi-final stage and he has the railer Jordans Brianna next to him today.  Further to that, he has Swift Keith in 4 who has been missing the start of late and who will also be moving in.  I can understand the gamble based upon all that but he is plenty short enough now over a trip that is probably inadequate for him.  The value is definitely in Pinpoint Maxi making amends for his Laurels final defeat (last start) to the reopposing Jordans Brianna and leading this lot before clinging on at the death.  Maxi is absolutely devastating out of the boxes (Conna Trigger’s brother, incidentally) and with the tardy starting Derby runner-up Droopys Ward next to him he can power to the bend before stretching them down the back.  He’ll need to be 2 or 3 lengths clear of Jack in particular to win this but from this draw in 2, I can fully see that happening and 7/2 is too big.

21:08 – 3 Steps to Victory Final

If Roxholme Dream leads at any point (and that could even be out of the boxes) she will surely win this but opening quotes of 4/9 have gradually seen sense and drifted to about the price she should be at 5/6.  She is a simply awesome bitch with a lovely turn of foot, stays well enough and shows brilliant trackcraft when needed.  That barked, with her draw next to Coolavanny Fish in particular, she might find another big dog in her way to deny her a Category One prize (eliminated from the Golden Jacket when colliding with Farley Rio).  Elwick Glory is respected as unbeaten (from 1 start) over 6 bends and connections seem pleased to have made the final; she is drawn inside Dream so could lead her up too and then she didn’t look like she was stopping when victorious at Newcastle on her six-bend bow-wow.  The value, though, is surely in the bottom leading the whole way at a monumental 25/1!  Untried over this trip, Russanda Brax, should lead these (unless Dream gets a flier) and then he will surely set a serious target to catch him (on a fast Sky track).  In the semi-final he seemed to put the brakes on a bit before going away again so if he still had something in the locker from that effort, he will take a lot of catching tonight on the bunny.  He is way too big to provide a shock here!

Here are the recommendations:

19:26 – Walshes Hill – 1 doggie treat @ 11/4

20:16 – Billys Bullet – 1 piece of bread @ Evs

20:51 – Pinpoint Maxi – 1 breast of chicken @ 7/2

21:08 – Russanda Brax – 1 dog bone @ 25/1

So there are my thoughts on the proceedings!  As ever, please tweet me if you have any comments and I promise to bark back at you faster than Pinpoint Maxi flies out of the boxes tonight!  It should be a great night with the 19:26 particularly a race to savour, especially when Hill gives them a mountain to climb.

Enjoy the racing,

Jimmy

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