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Golden Jacket Final + Supporting Sky Card Thoughts

The action returns to Sky Sports this evening with a tournament that has been kind to the Lolly Faithful over the years, most memorably White Soks Roks’ heroic victory 2 years ago!  We don’t have an antepost runner in the final but that doesn’t mean we can’t profit on the tournament with a dog that has a cracking draw so it should be a good night if things go to plan!  On the whole, it is a varied card to the extreme with no four bend standards in the televised action and a race that would take me 5 days to complete in a 1048m marathon!  Crayford is a tight track that you need to get on the bunny (something you all know I excelled at) as soon as my colleagues can and on that note, let’s find the value for the Lolly Faithful:

19:11 – Hurdle

The dogs that like to jump over things for no apparent reason other than to chase that pesky hare kick off the action and in it we have two very well-thought of hurdlers in Jetsream Reason and Con Te Partiro.  Both of those colleagues are very fast timber-lovers but they are prone to errors and paw performances so the vote for me is the well-drawn Scolari Express to run his usual solid race and account for the two more fancied, and probably more talented on their day, hounds.

19:26 – Marathon

Droopys Bear is favourite for this and whilst he looked a different dog in his first two efforts round here as he pinged the boxes like yours truly, he went back to his napping ways in the Semi-Finals of the Jacket and he looks vulnerable here.  He has never been comfortable coming out of 5 and with Kakantu capable of pinging next to him, Bear could find himself in bother as he tries to mow down any colleagues in front of him.  Kakantu is just not running the track well but I suppose he could be a danger if he was given a solo; he runs the 3rd bend extremely wide (even for his standards) and that could let another hound in.  That dog is Borna Champ.  The Kent St. Leger winner round here runs the track particularly well and was making eye-catching progress in the Semi-Finals before being stopped in his paw tracks abruptly (hence why it is an advantage to be in the lead at this circuit) but he has a nice draw to weave his way through the field here and you could easily see him turning 3rd or 4th here round the first circuit and picking these off.  9/4 is too big and the 3/1 this morning made me miss one of my 3 naps before breakfast as I just couldn’t sleep with excitement, which is rare.

19:43 – Stayers

Without doubt the most talented dog in this field is Sidarian Blitz who made an eye-catching staying bow-wow round here (his first look at the track) last week where he stayed on well once he worked out where he was (Crayford).  He can gain on that experience and provided he can overcome what does look a slightly iffy draw (the 4 and 6 have pace) he can score in impressive fashion here.  He has never quite hit the heights of his potential as an ex-Irish dog who was touted as an Irish Derby runner in some circles in his youth.  He mixed it with the likes of Boylesports Hero (once Irish Derby favourite) and Laughil Blake (2014 Irish Derby champion) in Ireland so this is a huge class drop against Crayford regulars.  He has shown glimpses of real ability in his UK career and whilst connections must be frustrated with his lack of top quality progress, he can surely account for these and should be odds-on.  Hearthill Fairy has been running very well the past couple of weeks and looks too big as well if the jolly has an off-day.

19:59 – Marathon

Market Heights was unfortunate to meet a rampant Roxholme Magic last week where she picked up a useful lead only to be absolutely blown away by that extremely classy looking ex-Irish bitch.  Incidentally, Magic does not run here as connections have thrown their toys out of the pram (which is a shame) for the Golden Jacket antepost favourite being clipped in the Semi-Finals in an unfortunate incident that saw Farley Rio not seeing the bend coming at him in time and so he ran off taking out the tiny Roxholme Dream with him: that’s racing I bark!  Anyways, Heights possibly did not stay in that aforementioned marathon as whilst Magic was impressive, it could have been exaggerated by Heights running up-and-down on the spot in the final yards.  With that in mind, it is worth siding with Painted Craft who has been running consistently well round here and I am more than confident that she will stay this trip: she is too big at 9/2 if the 3 doesn’t stay, which is entirely possible.

20:16 – Stayers Hurdle

An intriguing contest here with the all-conquering Never Doubt Me running from his favoured box but he looks on the short side now and it is therefore worth having a tickle on your tummy of the 6: Soviet Military.  He is nowhere near the force of old which saw him virtually unbeatable over this course-and-distance a year ago and beyond but he still has enough life in his tiring legs to utilise his pitch out-wide and out-jump this lot.  Newinn Hawk is a gutsy competitor but has it all to do to overturn the recent form with Never Doubt Me so he’s priced about right.  Lollylips is nearly worth a speculative doggie treat at what looks a big 14/1 for a local who can put in a solid round of jumping.

20:33 – Peter Bussey Final

A tough looking affair to bark confidently about which is reflected in the prices and it looks to me that whoever gets on that elusive bunny wins this.  That could be 2, 3, 4 and 6 for me so it is a hard race to gauge.  The 3 is probably outclassed for me and whilst Farneys Cookie won well last week, he is not one to overtake so you simply have to be on the bunny for him to score, which he could do but there’s some useful early in this for the trip.  Jimmy Nailed On has a similar profile to Farneys Cookie and like him, is capable of putting up a long losing streak but still looking like he’s running well: he could turn up tonight, however.  I’m going to side with Castlelyons Sevi who can’t be in finer fettle and has the inside to potentially rail these off and poach a winning lead.

20:51 – Maxi Marathon

In what has to be the most ridiculous concept that any entity has ever come up with, this lot are going to have a go at running 1048m: good luck!  There are only so many hounds that can get this far in the world, let alone England, and here we have two that definitely stay this ludicrous trip.  Supreme Rossie is running OK and needs this sort of distance but this trip is simply Musical Fawn’s speciality and she nearly looks a play at odds-against in a 4 runner affair.  She stays longer than my bitch-in-law and she can utilise this somewhat unique affair.

21:08 – Golden Jacket Final

Racenight Jenny is a worthy favourite as she has put in some intelligent performances to weave her way through the field in both races round here to win, but I cannot have her this short to repeat the feat: she could be stopped at any point.  Bubbly Time came out like a rocket in the Semi-Final, which is a rarity, to put the race to her doggie bed in the first few strides as she stays longer than this but I can’t have her repeating that either.  That leads the 2, Black Francis, who could not have asked for a better draw to make the bend, get on the bunny on the inside, and set these a target as whilst he doesn’t get the trip strongly, he battles gamely in front.  Wiki Waki Woo has a bad draw for such a tight railing bitch and whilst she has ran the track well, her job will be to hold up Jenny and Time rather than win herself.  Millwards Amy was backed in the heats but didn’t get the precious lead she needs and Malls Pride has done well to get here, but both look held.  Francis to make-all in an exhibition of how to win at Crayford.

Here are the recommendations:

19:26 – Borna Champ – 1/2 dog bone @ 9/2

19:43 – Sidarian Blitz – 1 doggie treat @ 6/4

19:59 – Painted Craft – 1 breast of chicken @ 9/2

21:08 – Black Francis – 1 piece of bread @ 11/2

So there are my thoughts on the proceedings!  As ever, please tweet me if you have any comments and I promise to bark back at you faster than Black Francis gets on that bunny tonight!  It should be an entertaining night around a notoriously difficult track, let’s hope I’ve worked out the puzzles!

Enjoy the racing,

Jimmy

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Maiden Derby Final + Supporting Sky Card Thoughts

The action starts to come thick and fast on Sky Sports from now on and tonight we have an intriguing card from Newcastle to get stuck into – howoof!  The Maiden Derby Final is the feature which looks a wide-open affair but before then we have a decent card for the time of year and plenty of pointers can be found for the likes of the Scottish Derby (in particular) coming up in the Spring.  As ever, Newcastle has a strong local kennel strength so it is always worth treating my colleagues from the Toon as serious hounds.  It is a tough card on the whole to come up with any strong fancies, but as ever I have found some value for the Lolly Faithful.

19:11 – Puppy Maiden

A truly baffling decision by the humans that claim to be in control of running greyhound racing that they have put this race on for the main Sky program.  An impossible race for punters (without inside information) and you might as well throw a dart at the card and hope it drops off and you move on to the next race unscathed.

19:26 – Standard

Likeitalot proved a class apart to his rivals at Hall Green last week when he missed the break and still had enough early to make the bend from trap 4 to chop his rivals off.  He has to be taken on here though, despite his obvious class, as he ran a shocker from trap 1 in the Northern Puppy Derby final (when fancied) and just looks a dog that needs 3 or 4.  He could just be too good for these and make the bend regardless, but at his price it is prohibitive.  His full litter-brother is interesting in 3 but he has had an interrupted start to his career and whilst he hails from a spectacular looking set of young tykes, he may just need this run and in particular to miss his brother who will be coming for his room.  Gainstown Beaver in 2 needs a mid-tag on him as he does not rail so this race all shapes up to be a bit of carnage.  A tentative vote goes to Bua Farah who is a local who sprung onto the scene in impressive fashion last year with all-the-way efforts before losing his way slightly when upped in class to take on the real class hounds that turned up for the All England Cup.  After a decent trial, Farah looks too big to make the bend and account for his pawly drawn colleagues here.  The 6 has a cracking draw and had two decent trials here, whether that can be translated into a race scenario remains a doubt and looks about the right price in my dog’s honest opinion.

19:43 – British Bred

The best nation to breed hounds from take each other on here and it looks to me as who can make the bend out of Eric Court and Pond Beethoven.  Preference is for the latter as this local lad has good early and is a dependable sort round his beloved Brough Lane circuit.  Eric Court is the type of dog you take on at short-prices (particularly out of his unfavoured trap 1) as he can put in a really flashy run in a good time (his two victories against the Greyhound of the Year runner-up Newinn Yolo spring to mind) but then he can put in some woeful efforts if not getting on the bunny.  Beethoven is more dependable and that is music to my floppy ears.

19:59 – Maiden

This maiden could see the start of a useful sort’s career in Pinpoint Classic who has been bought to be a class early-paced hound (as many of Alan Findlay’s are) and he could blow these away if he pings like me.  His early in the first round of the Maiden Derby was scintillating and whilst he didn’t get home that day, he looked like he needed the run so he should get the trip today.  He totally blew the start in the Semi-Final and that can be more than forgiven considering he is as big as 7/4 to effectively lead these tonight: that is too big.  Tarmons Jet can punish him if he fluffs his lines again but I cannot see Jet leading Classic with a level break.  The others look a level below the required standard here.

20:16 – Stayers

Blackhouse Heidi is a talented bitch who can mix it with the best 6 bend performers in the country.  Whilst she can be a bit clumsy when she gets trapped in behind, she has now won an A2 and A1 in succession around her home track and over a trip still arguably short of her optimum here, she should still have plenty enough time to mow these down.  The 3 was fancied in the BAGS Track Championship over a trip but must surely be miles clear of Heidi to beat her today and that is very hard to envisage.  Odds-against quotes on Heidi look way off the mark to me and she can make the layers feel klum.

20:33 – Standard

All the doggie treats have been for the local raider Magical Reid here and punters are looking to land two gambles on Sky in successive weeks.  Now that his price has gone it has made one or two of the others look attractive.  A chance is taken on the class act in this field Calzaghe Davy to have too much all-round pace for these as he is no doubt capable of.  Whether he can muck it with the cream of the greyhound world is still very debatable but he has a habit of demolishing moderate sorts, of which these could be.  The other negative for him is that he has had a lay-off and might get a whack from the 4 out of the boxes, at 4/1 though he is still worth having on-side for the purposes of this blog, though.

20:51 – Invitation

The best race on the card here sees a young tyke (and the third of the aforementioned quality litter that is emerging) that has been underestimated by the layers at 5/1:  Northern Puppy Derby winner Kneejerkreaction.  Subject to a huge gamble in that final, he shot clear out of 3 (which he has today) and never looked like losing against some seriously nice young sorts.  He will have to be at least as good today to account for, in particular, Maum Legend, but he could just be as good as that dog and is more than twice his price from a better draw.  Legend is a game colleague of mine who has devastating Category 1 pace when he can use it and Newcastle definitely plays to his strengths; he can however miss the break which could give Kneejerkreaction enough room to boss him at the bend and show him a clean set of hocks.  Swift Hoffman has been continually purpawted as a superstar in the making but not only will he have to contend with the ever-dependable old gal Greenwell Lark, he is becoming overrated in my eyes and looks plenty short enough.  He could beat these by a way if he gets on the bunny, but I can’t see him getting an uncontested lead here and certainly he is not a consideration at his price.  Kneejerkreaction could just be as good as Legend and is a must-bet at the prices.  The 2 is of interest if it can get on the bunny but I cannot envisage him leading any of these, even from a great draw.

21:08 – Maiden Derby Final

A tough race to bark with the market reflecting that and whilst the bitch in 1, Musical Storm, was impressive in the Semi-Final it was sort of a flash-in-the-pan type of run and it will be interesting to see if she can follow it up tonight.  If she can she should win this but it is better to look at a more dependable sort for me.  Farran Heaslip needs further and would need it to get messy up front which is by no means unlikely.  Burgess Oscar could be better than these in time but he has looked green to me so is respected but is one for another day.  Farloe Quest ran well on the bunny but I cannot see how he clears the 4.  The 6 will need it to get very messy but is well-drawn nonetheless as the 5 will be going left.  With all that considered, the slight value here is the stalwart Valentia Frosty to beat these to the bend and not be caught, which is a possibility that is less than 9/2 for me.  He is a proper dog who always gives his all and the fact that his connections are barking about a tilt at the Derby suggests he could have even more in the locker than we have seen already: he will need it in the Derby!

Here are the recommendations:

19:59 – Pinpoint Classic – 1 doggie treat @ 7/4

20:16 – Blackhouse Heidi – 1 breast of chicken @ 5/4

20:51 – Kneejerkreaction – 1 piece of bread @ 5/1

So there are my thoughts on the proceedings!  As ever, please tweet me if you have any comments and I promise to bark back at you faster than Classic makes the bend tonight!  It looks a tough night punting-wise but that’s never stopped the Lolly Faithful in the past and we all need a challenge once in a while, we have one this evening!

Enjoy the racing,

Jimmy