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All England Cup Final + Supporting Sky Card Thoughts

One of my favourite nights of racing comes to us from Newcastle this evening in the form of the William Hill Festival and it could be a fantastic one for the Lolly Faithful. We are clutching with our paws 7/1 tickets on Swift Keith in the feature at 21:19 and he is a dog to always depend on to give his all, more on that later! Besides that, we have another Category One final, Category 2 finals and a whole host of classy racing from this quality track at Brough Park. With the weather set to be cloudy with the slight possibility of showers (always a concern about a rain-sodden track in the winter), it should be a fantastic night and there is a lot of value about for the Lolly Faithful. I’ve found it for us:

19:34 – Puppy

The young tykes have a go here in the consolation for the Northern Puppy Derby and it is hard to trust Thirteen Bags at odds-on after he completely blew the start last time. Presumably for the same connections as that awesome early-paced Ten Large Down for Diane Henry, if he rediscovers his trapping boots he won’t be for catching but the value is the nicely drawn speedster on his inside. Tromora Tyson has been coming out of wide draws in the Northern Puppy Derby but this trap 2 slot should allow him to turn slightly right out of the boxes (3 is normally slow-away) and have the beating of Bags to the bend and assert from there. The track is normally lightning fast on Sky nights so you want to be on the front-runners, I think Tyson leads this. He is perhaps two lengths slower than Bags but that could be immaterial if he gets on the bunny. Millwards Davy is inconsistent but that’s these youngsters for you: dangerous if he leads.

19:49 – Standard

Conna Trigger is like his litter-brother Pinpoint Maxi (runs in the final this evening) in that he does not get 500m (tired in the Steel City Cup final for instance) but he is a beast over this sort of trip due to his devastating early. There is early aplenty in this field, but it is all drawn badly with Ballymac Bobbyjo likely to just spoil the party for Redbrick Stuart rather than outrun his odds. Stuart was turned over at odds-on in his last effort when he was adopting the same position as I do on beloved sofa as the traps open: lying down! Whilst he can be forgiven for taking a nap if he’s at home, surely he shouldn’t be having a dog nap while at work and it is hard to see him clearing the dependable Bobbyjo. Calzaghe Davy won the feature event this time last year but is a frustrating sort who seems to show more than he is actually capable of on occassions: Trigger can show him a clear pair of paws. Sidarian Blitz is of interest for powerful connections but he is taking a big step up in class and Trigger is a Derby sort who is not inconvenienced by trap 4 and he can make-all here.

20:04 – Sprint

Sadly, I was busy having my third nap of the morning as this race was priced up and missed all of the value (perhaps) on ex-Irish raider Walshes Hill. 8/1 this morning when I was dreaming of squirrels falling out of trees, this dog was only headed by Crokers Champ (English Derby finalist) in the Dundalk Sprint Cup this year and is surely the value to overturn the impressive odds-on Pinpoint Finas. Finas, albeit fast, was slightly fortunate in his last effort in my dog’s honest opinion as he didn’t quite ping like me and had to drive the bend in with other colleagues with real determination. Admittedly he did that well but he can ill-afford any tardiness this evening with the prowess of Hill and the huge dangers of the returning local duo Ballymac Best and Farkland Impact. The golden rule of tipping at Newcastle is never dismiss the strong local contingent no matter how hopeless they look on pawper and whilst Best is of interest, Farkland Impact at 16/1 is surely too big for a dog that has won on this type of card before over course and distance (at 8/1) and is a reliable pinger. The value is to simply side against the jolly that is too short: Pinpoint Finas.

20:19 – Stayers

I just barked about local dogs being underestimated and I think Jimmy Nailed On can ping out here and make-all for a dog that ran with real credit in the Puppy competition this month. He won his heat in assertive fashion and was unlucky to be drawn in trap 1 where he got confused in the semi-final. He still ran on when beaten in that race though and over this sort of trip he can make amends for two costly efforts when previously tried over the course and distance. He is clearly a decent stayer in the making and he can turn handy to Hather George (ran well here on Saturday but does not stay this far) and overcome that rival. Droopys Dave runs this track well but he is hardly one to put your life on (and we know how valuable mine is!) and Calzaghe Vet is continuing to disappoint after such a promising start over a stayers trip; whether Vet is more interested in the bunny or his colleagues is up for debate but he has simply just not been getting on with the race when given room and unless he has a change of heart, he is always worth taking on. Banfid Rizzoli confirmed her owners fears on Saturday when he said she didn’t like other dogs around her at the bend: her human was spot on.

20:34 – Angel of the North

As most of the Lolly Faithful should know by now I like watching a classy bitch and we have a lovely one here in the form of Jaytee China. She has enough early to be competitive against any of her own sex and from a good draw with the 4 moving wide and 2 railing, she can run up the middle and assert here in commanding fashion down the back. Rock Cinta is always worth a look at big prices due to her early but it is hard to see her clearing trap 4 and those two should put paid to the chances of the gamble of the heats, Burnfoot Belle, who was agonisingly close to getting up on the line at 6/1 last time out. China is the unofficial Angel of the South and is value to become the Angel of the North tonight.

20:49 – Great North Run

A cracking race here for those lunatics who like to run over further than 305m and we have the track-record holder Blackhouse Heidi against the once-beaten over a staying trip Airmount Paco. The way Paco came out in the heats made the race into a solo trial and it is hard to envisage him not doing the same here with his 5 from 6 record over a trip and his pinging ability. Heidi is of course a danger to him on formlines if she turns second but Fear Emoski showed us on Saturday just why she was the outstanding staying bitch of last year when picking up a good field and she has enough early and a pawchant to move middle to block Heidi’s path enough. None would be upset if Emoski could roll back the years but Paco is formidable on home sand out of trap 1.

21:04 – Northern Puppy Derby

The young tykes have their final here and with these youngsters having so little experience, the draw is always crucial. La Cuchilla could cause chaos out of trap 5 as an absolute bang railer and so the value is to surely side with Wanted to go round the outside and lead out of the 2nd bend. Ted Soppitt is confident that Wanted will not be for catching if he gets his head in front (believes he will stay 575m) so he is the bark in what could be a scrappy contest. Impressive semi-final winner Likeitalot is an uneasy favourite as he has never been out of trap 1 (ran middle in his racing so far) and has his litter-brother Kneejerkreaction on his outside who showed decent early to land a significant gamble in the semi-finals. Droopys Alessio could lead both of those two and all of a sudden it looks really messy on the inside: it won’t be messy for Wanted if he holds his line. Droopys Cortez is a danger if turning menacingly as he has brute pace.

21:19 – All England Cup Final

With a lovely looking draw on the outside of the absolute ping-machine that is Pinpoint Finas, Swift Keith can claim a memorable victory for the Lolly Faithful here. Finas simply does not stay this trip so is vulnerable to all 5 rivals, whereas Keith has shown a tenacity in the second-half of this year that arguably makes him the best standard distance performer in the country at the moment. If he were to win this then the Greyhound of the Year title that I so gracefully adorned will be on the cards and he will thoroughly deserve it. Keith can lead Newinn Yolo who has abundant pace but showed a rare glimpse of frailty when he would not go past Eric Court in his semi-final at 1/4 (in a fast time admittedly), and can then get after Finas in front. Eric Court is a huge danger if he improves his consistency at the start as he is undoubtedly a very fast colleague of mine but he is about the right price to repeat his semi-final near-miracle. Bua Farah can remarkably run in the BAGS Track Championship after this (primarily against maiden/graded sorts) so dog knows what price he will be when he lines up against that level of colleague. Maum Legend has shown real guts and ability but whether he is quite a Category One performer yet is up for serious debate, especially with the class of Keith in the race.

Here are the recommendations:

19:34 – Tromora Tyson – 1 doggie treat @ 13/2

19:49 – Conna Trigger – 1 piece of bread @ 6/4)

20:19 – Jimmy Nailed On – 1 dog bone @ 7/2

20:34 – Jaytee China – 1 chewstick @ 6/4

20:49 – Airmount Paco – 2 breast of chicken @ 11/8

21:04 – Wanted – 1 rump steak @ 7/2

So there are my thoughts on the proceedings! As ever, please tweet me if you have any comments and I promise to bark back at you with all the vigour that I will be barking at my television screen if Keith turns second this evening. He should be too classy for even these rivals, he should be too swift.

Enjoy the racing,

Jimmy

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