It’s been a fantastic few weeks for the Lolly Faithful and with our two paws clutching 10/1 tickets on the favourite for tonight’s final on Sky Sports 2, it could be a night that we are dining in style. Candlelight King is the colleague in question and whilst I’ll bark about the race in greater detail later, he has a real favourite’s chance of landing the spoils and the doggie treats for us! The supporting card is an intriguing one and as ever with Sheffield’s graded strength being so strong, the value is normally with the locals around their Owlerton Stadium circuit. Disappointingly, it seems the track will be on the ludicrously quick side again this evening as is the norm for Sky cards these days which is a shame for my stronger colleagues as they are not given a fair chance on the biggest stage of them all. That barked, I think those pesky bookmakers are still woefully underestimating front-runners on these Sky Sports nights and with that in mind, I have found some value for the Lolly Faithful:
19:34 – Stayers
An intriguing affair awaits us in this first contest as there has been a significant gamble on Mottos Mixer who has not been over a trip like this before, yet has shown running on tendencies when fancied over the standard distance around here. He very well may prove too quick for these as he is likely to lead on the first circuit and use the ground to his advantage, but the impressive in-form bitch Droopys Gigi looks the value call if there are any chinks in the overcoat of the gamble. Adoremus is pawly drawn and because he likes to lead and doesn’t quite get the trip it is hard to see him scoring. Lowgate Jasper was very disappointing when well-fancied last time out and it would take a leap of faith to back him with the pace of 4 and 5 inside looking to move out. Tambourine Man is a confidence dog who should be feared if he leads at any point, which is highly doubtful in his current mood.
19:49 – Puppy
The young tykes have a go here and whilst he is not the best drawn and will need further in time, Final Hawk looks a very impressive youngster who could have a real tinge of class. He has a pawchant for the rail which could hinder him if Saffrons Anna comes away well from 1, but she should be clear of Hawk and he can hunt her down. He is 4 from 5 over the course and distance and was very eyecatching in defeat in his last effort in front of the cameras. Billys Bullet is another who will need a trip but with question marks over Anna’s stamina in one (and her temperament after last week’s naughty antics), at least one of Hawk and Bullet can catch her. I think the former has the most potential and so he is preferred.
20:04 – Sprint
Everyone’s favourite race here and what a prospect it is! As ever, if any of these sprinters get an absolute flier it will be all over but they are all pretty consistent trappers so the draw becomes crucial. Bowtime Fella is perhaps not as wide as some humans believe (runs wide at the bends rather than straights for me) and so United Leeds can continue his purple patch by passing his toughest test for a while. He is a reliable pinger who also runs off at the bend but he can assert over Fella and then shove his fellow colleagues out of the way in a decisive move at the first. Pinpoint Finas has yet to fully convince in race conditions and looks an early-paced dog over the standard trip as opposed to a natural sprinter (despite his track-record trial) and Mustang Blitz might quite not be the standard to win a high class affair like this. Cluxtons Free is no mug on his day but he is so erratic that he is about the right price. United leeds them home here with a brave first bend.
20:19 – Marathon
Sadly, this has turned from a race that I wanted to get my beloved doggie treats involved into a procession for Fearsome Liberty. The withdrawals of back-to-form Aayamzabella and the progressive Melodys Rumble have made the favourite unopposable; whether she stays this trip these days is a worry for those who like a short-priced supposed good thing.
20:34 – Standard
Farloe Striker continues to show great early around his home circuit but also continues to get beaten (1 win in 12 stars) when he is fancied so he is well worth taking on here, especially out of the 1 box that isn’t the most reliable at this circuit. Sailor Jerry’s form is standing up to the highest scrutiny as he has been pinging like me with consistency, had no chance of leading Conna Trigger (joint favourite for the feature) when eliminated from the Steel City Cup, and so he can gain compensation for his exit by making-all here out wide. Slippery Sooty has just not been the same dog that got to the 2013 Irish Derby Semi-Final since being on these shores and his regressive profile is a positive for Jerry having a complete solo. Lowgate Rock has been putting in some peculiar performances of late and looks like he needs a rest in my dog’s honest opinion.
20:49 – Bitches
I love watching a classy bitch and in traps 1, 2 and 3 we have some nice pinging ladies who could all steal a march on their rivals. More likely to me, however, is that Catrigg Croft is pawly drawn next to the straight-up, but railing Domino Storm, and Chevy Blazer is a lovely pinger who will definitely be looking to grab the rails. With all that in mind, Flandys First looks nice value to come out of the 6 box well and clear the trouble to build an unassailable lead.
21:04 – Standard
There are lots of question marks over the front of the market here (to put it lightly) and a surprise looks like it’s really on the cards. 2013 Derby hero Sidaz Jack staying 500m is about as likely as me taking less than 7 naps a day and Pay Freeze has been struggling to run the bends when he is surrounded by dogs these days. Either of those could prove me very wrong but I cannot have either of them and so it is between McGiolla and Bar Monroe for the value here. McGiolla runs on but arguably is seen to best effect when leading and due to that, I can see Monroe turning about 3rd or 4th here to Jack/Freeze and overhauling them round the final turns (has won over 575m at Romford). Blonde Razor likes to get on the bunny and he will probably be tapped for early toe by Jack at least and it is hard to make a case for Sacramento at half the price of Bar Monroe: Monroe is too big.
21:19 – Steel City Cup Final
Conna Trigger has been blazing a trail against classy sorts for a while now and if there is significant trouble behind, he will deserve this final. The fact is he is more of a Derby dog (over 480m) than a 500m sort as he doesn’t quite get home so at his price, it is hard to make a value case for him as this is a very good final. The Category One winner in the form of Viking Jack can never be ruled out and has a great draw to work from if turning in the slipstream of Trigger as he comfortably gets this trip, strongly if anything. Underground Paul and Droopys Norris don’t quite have the early to lead these but their middle pace is powerful and if turning handy they could get involved; middle pace is not the asset you need around Sheffield with it’s short back straight, however. Kildare Premier could spoil the doggie treat party for the Lolly Faithful if pinging and taking the room of his kennelmate but Candlelight King is irresistible around here and deserves to win a big tournament at his home circuit. Unlike some, he doesn’t mind the 1 box here and if he can clear Premier (which he is more than capable of doing), he can get after Trigger and overtake him in the final strides in a repeat of his Semi-Final performance. He will need a clear run to overhaul Trigger, but the King is the best dog around here and he can show that tonight.
Here are the recommendations:
20:34 – Sailor Jerry – 2 doggie treats @ 5/2
20:49 – Flandys First – 1 breast of chicken @ 9/2
21:04 – Bar Monroe – 1 piece of bread @ 10/1
Already advised:
Candlelight King to win the Steel City Cup – 1 dog bone @ 10/1
So there are my thoughts on the proceedings! As ever, if you have any comments please tweet me and I promise to bark with all the enthusiasm that I will be showing when I hail the King this evening! It should be an intriguing night’s action and with the track set to be fast, I expect a good night for the Lolly Faithful, especially when we follow the two word rule at Sheffield: all hail.
Enjoy the racing,
Jimmy