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Steel City Cup Final + Supporting Sky Card Thoughts

It’s been a fantastic few weeks for the Lolly Faithful and with our two paws clutching 10/1 tickets on the favourite for tonight’s final on Sky Sports 2, it could be a night that we are dining in style. Candlelight King is the colleague in question and whilst I’ll bark about the race in greater detail later, he has a real favourite’s chance of landing the spoils and the doggie treats for us! The supporting card is an intriguing one and as ever with Sheffield’s graded strength being so strong, the value is normally with the locals around their Owlerton Stadium circuit. Disappointingly, it seems the track will be on the ludicrously quick side again this evening as is the norm for Sky cards these days which is a shame for my stronger colleagues as they are not given a fair chance on the biggest stage of them all. That barked, I think those pesky bookmakers are still woefully underestimating front-runners on these Sky Sports nights and with that in mind, I have found some value for the Lolly Faithful:

19:34 – Stayers

An intriguing affair awaits us in this first contest as there has been a significant gamble on Mottos Mixer who has not been over a trip like this before, yet has shown running on tendencies when fancied over the standard distance around here. He very well may prove too quick for these as he is likely to lead on the first circuit and use the ground to his advantage, but the impressive in-form bitch Droopys Gigi looks the value call if there are any chinks in the overcoat of the gamble. Adoremus is pawly drawn and because he likes to lead and doesn’t quite get the trip it is hard to see him scoring. Lowgate Jasper was very disappointing when well-fancied last time out and it would take a leap of faith to back him with the pace of 4 and 5 inside looking to move out. Tambourine Man is a confidence dog who should be feared if he leads at any point, which is highly doubtful in his current mood.

19:49 – Puppy

The young tykes have a go here and whilst he is not the best drawn and will need further in time, Final Hawk looks a very impressive youngster who could have a real tinge of class. He has a pawchant for the rail which could hinder him if Saffrons Anna comes away well from 1, but she should be clear of Hawk and he can hunt her down. He is 4 from 5 over the course and distance and was very eyecatching in defeat in his last effort in front of the cameras. Billys Bullet is another who will need a trip but with question marks over Anna’s stamina in one (and her temperament after last week’s naughty antics), at least one of Hawk and Bullet can catch her. I think the former has the most potential and so he is preferred.

20:04 – Sprint

Everyone’s favourite race here and what a prospect it is! As ever, if any of these sprinters get an absolute flier it will be all over but they are all pretty consistent trappers so the draw becomes crucial. Bowtime Fella is perhaps not as wide as some humans believe (runs wide at the bends rather than straights for me) and so United Leeds can continue his purple patch by passing his toughest test for a while. He is a reliable pinger who also runs off at the bend but he can assert over Fella and then shove his fellow colleagues out of the way in a decisive move at the first. Pinpoint Finas has yet to fully convince in race conditions and looks an early-paced dog over the standard trip as opposed to a natural sprinter (despite his track-record trial) and Mustang Blitz might quite not be the standard to win a high class affair like this. Cluxtons Free is no mug on his day but he is so erratic that he is about the right price. United leeds them home here with a brave first bend.

20:19 – Marathon

Sadly, this has turned from a race that I wanted to get my beloved doggie treats involved into a procession for Fearsome Liberty. The withdrawals of back-to-form Aayamzabella and the progressive Melodys Rumble have made the favourite unopposable; whether she stays this trip these days is a worry for those who like a short-priced supposed good thing.

20:34 – Standard

Farloe Striker continues to show great early around his home circuit but also continues to get beaten (1 win in 12 stars) when he is fancied so he is well worth taking on here, especially out of the 1 box that isn’t the most reliable at this circuit. Sailor Jerry’s form is standing up to the highest scrutiny as he has been pinging like me with consistency, had no chance of leading Conna Trigger (joint favourite for the feature) when eliminated from the Steel City Cup, and so he can gain compensation for his exit by making-all here out wide. Slippery Sooty has just not been the same dog that got to the 2013 Irish Derby Semi-Final since being on these shores and his regressive profile is a positive for Jerry having a complete solo. Lowgate Rock has been putting in some peculiar performances of late and looks like he needs a rest in my dog’s honest opinion.

20:49 – Bitches

I love watching a classy bitch and in traps 1, 2 and 3 we have some nice pinging ladies who could all steal a march on their rivals. More likely to me, however, is that Catrigg Croft is pawly drawn next to the straight-up, but railing Domino Storm, and Chevy Blazer is a lovely pinger who will definitely be looking to grab the rails. With all that in mind, Flandys First looks nice value to come out of the 6 box well and clear the trouble to build an unassailable lead.

21:04 – Standard

There are lots of question marks over the front of the market here (to put it lightly) and a surprise looks like it’s really on the cards. 2013 Derby hero Sidaz Jack staying 500m is about as likely as me taking less than 7 naps a day and Pay Freeze has been struggling to run the bends when he is surrounded by dogs these days. Either of those could prove me very wrong but I cannot have either of them and so it is between McGiolla and Bar Monroe for the value here. McGiolla runs on but arguably is seen to best effect when leading and due to that, I can see Monroe turning about 3rd or 4th here to Jack/Freeze and overhauling them round the final turns (has won over 575m at Romford). Blonde Razor likes to get on the bunny and he will probably be tapped for early toe by Jack at least and it is hard to make a case for Sacramento at half the price of Bar Monroe: Monroe is too big.

21:19 – Steel City Cup Final

Conna Trigger has been blazing a trail against classy sorts for a while now and if there is significant trouble behind, he will deserve this final. The fact is he is more of a Derby dog (over 480m) than a 500m sort as he doesn’t quite get home so at his price, it is hard to make a value case for him as this is a very good final. The Category One winner in the form of Viking Jack can never be ruled out and has a great draw to work from if turning in the slipstream of Trigger as he comfortably gets this trip, strongly if anything. Underground Paul and Droopys Norris don’t quite have the early to lead these but their middle pace is powerful and if turning handy they could get involved; middle pace is not the asset you need around Sheffield with it’s short back straight, however. Kildare Premier could spoil the doggie treat party for the Lolly Faithful if pinging and taking the room of his kennelmate but Candlelight King is irresistible around here and deserves to win a big tournament at his home circuit. Unlike some, he doesn’t mind the 1 box here and if he can clear Premier (which he is more than capable of doing), he can get after Trigger and overtake him in the final strides in a repeat of his Semi-Final performance. He will need a clear run to overhaul Trigger, but the King is the best dog around here and he can show that tonight.

Here are the recommendations:

20:34 – Sailor Jerry – 2 doggie treats @ 5/2

20:49 – Flandys First – 1 breast of chicken @ 9/2

21:04 – Bar Monroe – 1 piece of bread @ 10/1

Already advised:

Candlelight King to win the Steel City Cup – 1 dog bone @ 10/1

So there are my thoughts on the proceedings! As ever, if you have any comments please tweet me and I promise to bark with all the enthusiasm that I will be showing when I hail the King this evening! It should be an intriguing night’s action and with the track set to be fast, I expect a good night for the Lolly Faithful, especially when we follow the two word rule at Sheffield: all hail.

Enjoy the racing,

Jimmy

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East Anglian Derby Final + Supporting Sky Card Thoughts

It’s been a cracking few weeks for the Lolly Faithful and with a mouthwatering card this evening to get stuck into I am salivating more than with a pork scratching in my mouth! Yarmouth is a track to follow the Charlie Lister runners (where isn’t?) but with his tremendous record of 11 wins in the East Anglian Derby he bids to make it an historic 12th triumph round this tight but competitive circuit. With the standard trip being on the shorter side of a true four bends, this circuit often favours the speedsters who ping like me and set a target for the others to chase. It is not solely a front-runners track, but the way the Sky cards have been going this year with ludicrously quick running surfaces (for reasons unbeknownst to humans and us dogs alike) we will be focusing on who can make the bend in a prominent position at least this evening. It looks a great punting card to throw a few doggie treats at and as ever, I have found plenty of value for the Lolly Faithful:

19:34 – Dogs

The real boys grind it out here in a battle of masculinity and a battle it looks on pawper with the draw not being in favour for any of the three inside runners. Bills Heartbeat has been off the track for a while but showed good speed prior to whatever niggle he has had and can pace up to put pressure on the enigmatic Guinness Spark and the rails-loving (and also long-absentee) Golden Wonder. Wonder was ludicrously inclined to the rails as a young tyke and whilst he has grown out of his pawchant for the paint somewhat, being off the card for a while could result in him returning to his ill-fated ways when drawn middle. That all leads to there being a surprise on the cards here in my dog’s honest opinion and that comes in the form of the quietly impressive King Grant in trap 6. He has shown great early zest around Romford of late (a real front runners circuit) and he can lead the outside here and set a solid benchmark of 28:30 with which the others will not be getting to if there is the expected trouble on the inside. Grant can make-all here for a much deserved victory.

19:49 – Marathon

Hardly the most inspiring of the ludicrous distance type of race here and one wonders how everyone’s favourite race is on before the Sky cameras (at 19:16) and this race has made the cut. Nevertheless, front-runners are the name of the game this evening and whilst Crazy Weasley with a clear run will pick these up with consummate ease, he has not had a look at the track and will be likely to find a bit of trouble on his way round. Unscathed he walks this but a tentative vote goes to likely leader Toosey Beannie to establish a big enough lead on a quick circuit to just about stay this trip, which she struggles to get in normal circumstances.

20:04 – Bitches

This is the race I’ll be on the edge of my sofa for and it has an intriguing make-up to it. Jaytee China is the class act and a lovely trial here last shows she runs the circuit but she has the reliable pinger in Franks Dream on her outside and the early-pace of Aero Babooshka on her inner. She is not value to cheat this draw but with Babooshka tending to nap in the traps more than I nap on my sofa, the vote still goes to China to make the bend and prove to classy for these.

20:19 – Dogs

Another macho display here could see a similarly chaotic affair on the inside. Jaytee Hawaii showed some of the best early out of any of my colleagues in the Derby and will be looking to move middle (although interestingly he won from 1 in the heats of today’s finale) whereas Cathys Clown is a natural railer who loathed being out wide in this year’s East Anglian Derby. Those two have similar early up to the bend for me and with Sidaz Jonathan not completely devoid, trouble at the first bend looks likely. With that in mind, the two local runners in Beaming Javier and Frettenham Flyer look to be the value in the race to me. Preference is for the former based on him beind drawn inside his rival and the fact he probably has a length on him to the bend on recent form which means he can assert on the outside (4 will be moving in) and swoop round to put his decent, consistent A1 sort of time to good effect.

20:34 – Marathon

A much classier marathon here but still one with question marks over a lot of the runners and with his chances of leading looking extremely high, Art Banksy looks a good bet here to get on the bunny and not be for passing. He set the track record over a longer trip at Nottingham when he got loose and this sort of distance is just about his optimum. Aayamzabella is in her favourite trap and whilst her record is 3 from 5 here, she has not won this calendar year (21 starts) and although she is very draw dependent, it is now starting to feel like she has lost her desire to catch that elusive hare. Melodys Rumble is in the best form of his career but can’t give Banksy too much of a head-start and Aero Flamingo is an in-and-out sort of bitch. She could surprise but there is little to be surprised about in Musical Fawn who looks like she needs 2000m, let alone 843m. The writing will be on the wall for Banksy’s competitors a long way out here.

20:49 – Standard

Any Dak was absolutely desperate not to make the bend as he was eliminated from defending his East Anglian Derby title and he can show what a class act he is around his favourite track here. With little early inside him in 4 and 5 he can be high, wide and not-so-handsome-as-me as he powers clear off the second bend. Ballygibbon King is fast on the bunny and whilst he will like trap 3, Snappers Lad has been pinging like me of late and will be moving middle from his berth. This potentially gives Mays King a lovely run up the inside but he looks plenty short enough given his inconsistent efforts.

21:04 – Stayers

An intriguing stayers race here can go the way of the in-form Black Francis who is unbeaten over this course and distance (admittedly from just 2 starts). He has the pace to lead this field along the rails and not be for catching, especially if Farley Rio is still running below par following his exertions in the Irish Derby. Rio just hasn’t quite had his usual early zest in his races since returning from a solid effort at Shelbourne Park and whilst he ran on gallantly at Romford on Friday behind the game-on-the-bunny Blonde Razor, he is a dog seen to best effect when he is leading. He should stay if he leads but I can see Francis turning in front of him this evening. Stainless Steel runs well on tight tracks but often needs luck in-running and local Tyrur Andy could prove to run better than his odds if he can produce one of his better starts. When all is barked and done, on an expected fast surface, Francis to make-all here.

21:19 – East Anglian Derby Final

This final with 6 railers looks like absolute chaos and needless to bark if one of these gets a flier and leads, they will surely go on to claim this coveted prize. Based on the draw and a level break, Rio Quattro is not ideally berthed as a middle sort of dog, Southern Mesut definitely prefers the middle and should be seeded accordingly and 2013 English Derby hero Sidaz Jack loves the rails and shows his best from traps 1 and 2. With Domino Storm not out of this as she has won a valuable race at Monmore from 5 and goes up straight and Swift Keith expected to be completely dumbfounded with his draw out wide, the value call is the outside in Forest Gavin. He is undoubtedly as quick as these on his day (he caught Southern Mesut in the heats) and whilst his early isn’t in the same league as some of these, his draw could prove crucial and he loves to ping out of trap 4. His human, Kevin Hutton, was at dismay at his draw so connections must feel he wants the rail more than I do but they often trial him solo from traps 4 and 1 to get him used to coming out of different positions. That has led to some of his best performances coming from the coffin box with 3 of his 4 efforts out of the trap producing a “Quick-Away” comment from the human that nobody sees upstairs. He will have to do a lot of things right and get a bit of fortune on the way, but he is no 16/1 chance with his make-up, ability and efforts from trap 4 in the past.

Here are the recommendations:

19:34 – King Grant – 1 doggie treat @ 10/1

20:19 – Beaming Javier – 1 chicken breast @ 14/1

20:34 – Art Banksy – 2 chewstix @ 7/2

20:49 – Any Dak – 2 pieces of bread @ 11/4

21:04 – Black Francis – 1 dog bone @ 11/4

So there are my thoughts on the proceedings! As ever, if you have any comments please tweet me and I promise to bark back with even more masculinity than the dogs will show in their races tonight! It should be a cracking night in East Anglia this evening and let’s hope the popular dog Any Dak gets some consolation for his desperately unfortunate attempt to retain his East Anglian crown.

Enjoy the racing,

Jimmy

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Champion Stakes Final + Supporting Sky Card Thoughts

Well it looks a cracking night of racing at Romford this evening culminating in a wide-open Champion Stakes final as Reel Trickyone looks to complete a remarkable treble of Category One tournaments over the course and distance. He still looks opposable, however, and I will bark about that in greater deal later! The supporting card has a real punters look to it as the Essex track is shown live to us each Friday night and so the form is there for us all to see on the card and on the screens. As ever, I have found some value for the Lolly Faithful and tonight is not for the faint-hearted, as we have plenty of doggie treats to place on the racing! Here are my thoughts:

19:34 – Stayers

Effectively the consolation race to the main event this evening, it looks to me as a race of whoever makes the 2nd bend in front will take a lot of catching. Taking one-race form too literally is often a quick way to the paw house and with that in mind, it is worth chancing Pharisee Flyer to not miss the break horrendously (as he did in the Semi-Finals of the Champion Stakes last week) and return to his impressive front-running displays that have seen him go close to the track record at Romford. His draw is very workable with the admirable but ageing Hather George on his inside missing the break a lot more these days and even if he does come out, he tends to go up pretty straight. That is the total opposite of what Buoy Johnny does in trap 5 as he attempts to have a meal in the restaurant on his way round. Therefore, Flyer can ping out and resume his all-conquering ways and looks a nice price to do so. Blackstone Marco is consistent but has the dreaded trap 1 box to contend with over this C&D and is a type who always seems to prefer to lead, despite plugging on gamely if he does not. Steves Dream is a local hero for his pinging antics but he tends to start thinking about other things rather than the bunny when he leads and waits for his mates.

19:49 – Bitches

I love watching a good bitches contest and here we see the belle of Romford in the form of Borna Karma. Equally as devastating out of 5 as 6, this wide bitch can clock sub-24 seconds around the Essex circuit and that is at least 2 lengths better than these can muster at their best. Call Me Millie can produce good efforts over 2 and 4 bends but she is no match for the selection in a normal clash.

20:04 – Puppy

The young tykes have a go here and if Lenson Tiggy could ever learn to ping like me he could turn into a serious Category One prospect. He simply does not come out though and until he does, he is best just watched as his early gears and desire to drive the first and second bends are a joy to behold. If he is not on his toes today then Corner Hero could give him a serious target to aim at if he pings like he did in the heats. It is hard to see the others getting involved although Kakantu appears well-drawn.

20:19 – Stayers

Baliff Turbo could not have been more impressive on his first effort over the stayers distance at Romford last week and provided he can produce a half-decent break from the aforementioned woeful trap 1 box, he can make-all here. Bubbly Beauty has sadly been regressive since her win in the Puppy Derby at the back end of last year but if she can get out in front, it would be interesting to see if she stays this trip as the 480m at Wimbledon appeared to be her maximum, even when she was in flying form. Millwards Joker went the fastest of these last week but the assessment has to be that there is more to come from Turbo over this sort of trip, especially considering that despite it being out of his grasp (presumably because he has paws and can’t grip) his connections felt him worthy enough to compete in the Irish Derby.

20:34 – Hurdles

The jumpers are on display here although that is a loose description of what Cornamaddy Jumbo actually does when faced with an obstacle. He simply ploughs his way through most of the fences and the softer hurdles at Romford definitely help him out more than the more rigid ones at tracks like Wimbledon. In barking that, he still has numerous top class wins over proper hurdles and that is simply because he has ludicrous pace. He showed that last year in Ireland on the flat before he came to these shores and is so difficult to overtake once he hits the front, which he normally does. Irish Grand National champion Jetstream Reason is respected but is a dog who wants the rails at all costs and will not be happy drawn off the fence (impressive last week from trap one) so it is Jumbo’s to lose here. It’s not pretty, but he could do 24 seconds over hurdles given a clear run which is faster than some of the standard races will be won in tonight: a frightening prospect.

20:49 – Standard

The two market leaders here both have to lead and with that in mind, it looks a very winnable race for Cape Impact in his favourite trap 1 box. More renowned for his sprinting, he got caught in the heats last week over this 400m but if he can slip clear again, a similar performance could win tonight. He has won over 416m at his local track of Monmore and whilst he clearly does not stay strongly, he could out-rail this field and slip clear. Of course, if Putdownyourfoot (bought for 10,000 doggie treats) or Bishops Wood (highly progressive young tyke) get a run to the bend and lead the selection it is all over but I suspect Impact can lead these up and he is a game, albeit short-runner that might just not be passed.

21:04 – Marathon

The favourite, Old Refrain, is a bitch I like to take on at short prices as whilst she is impressive over marathon trips some days, she seems to take an age to pass dogs on others (for whatever reason). Therefore, Flawless Floyd is huge value to skip clear of this field and if he can get close to his personal best sort of time, not even Refrain should be able to catch him. He missed the break last week but that can be forgiven and the fact he came back to win on the line shows that his heart is in the game and he has a desire to get to that bunny first. He is 6 wins from 9 starts over the course and distance and he looks way too big against the quirky favourite.

21:19 – Champion Stakes Final

With 5 seeded dogs in the field that all seemingly have to lead to be seen at their best, the bark in this race is surely the railer who whilst he wins less than he should do, is too big at 8/1 to go one better than he did last week when runner-up to Reel Trickyone in a game effort. Longrange Denis is not a natural railer (like Cape Impact earlier for instance) but he stays close enough to the rails to turn 3rd or 4th here and gradually pick them off as the dogs ahead of him are vying to get to the front. Reel Trickyone is an unknown out of trap 2 and he simply has to lead, which is not guaranteed from such an inside draw. Fivestar Clipper wins this if he beats Soviet Kenny out of the boxes but the way that Puppy Classic finalist came out last week and went straight right (even out of trap 6) suggests his draw in 5 is a huge hazard for Clipper. Sinbad did well to win last week but that was probably down to Soviet Kenny (first time at the trip) did not stay rather than his exploits being particularly admirable. Denis to outstay them in a messy race for me.

Here are the recommendations:

19:34 – Pharisee Flyer – 1 doggie treat @ 4/1

20:19 – Baliff Turbo – 2 pieces of bread @ 13/8

20:49 – Cape Impact – 1 dog bone @ 5/1

21:04 – Flawless Floyd – 2 chewstix @ 3/1

21:19 – Longrange Denis – 1 breast of chicken @ 8/1

So there are my thoughts on the proceedings! As ever, please tweet me if you have any comments and I promise to bark back at you with all the vigour I will be showing at the TV when Baliff Turbo leads tonight! It should be a fascinating night’s racing and the Lolly Faithful are firing a lot of doggie treats at the bookies tonight: let’s hope we get more back!

Enjoy the racing,

Jimmy