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Sussex Cup Final + Supporting Sky Card Thoughts

It’s shaping up to be a cracking night in front of the Sky cameras this evening with a mixed card of distances leading to some seriously classy contests down on the South Coast. Hove is a regularly viewed track on a Thursday Night on Racing Post Greyhound TV so humans have a real opportunity to gain that crucial advantage over the bookies as they know these dogs so well. The only disappointing aspect of the night and it must be barked is that the legendary Farloe Tango is running before the live action begins? Like him or loathe him, he is a colleague of mine that deserves to be in front of the cameras and it seems like greyhound promoters constantly shoot themselves in the paw as to regards to entertaining the crowds. Anyways, we move on to the action where there is plenty of value to be had for the Lolly Faithful:

19:34 – Standard

This race is all about the draw and despite the withdrawal of two runners earlier this morning and thus the reduction in his price, Islas Scolari is still value to assert around the outside and gallop around a track he loves. Droopys Norris and Underground Paul are quietly fancied on the inside by many but both will have to clear the ever-game Express Master who despite not finishing his races out quite like he used to, is always reliable of a ping around here and pacing up to the bend. That will hinder Norris in particular and with Underground Paul reverting back to his old tactics of coming out hopelessly last time out in the Sussex Cup, Scolari can swoop round these late as he did in the first round of that aforementioned tournament. Master is the key in this race to holding up the fancied pair, and Scolari never needs a second invitation.

19:49 – Sprint

Everyone’s favourite race here had a plum draw for Southern Mesut before the withdrawal of Wee Tiger Tots on his outside. Tots is a lovely bitch but is infamous for over-shooting the bend and with her presence in 2, she would have caused carnage for the runners outside of her in all probability. Even without her in the race, Leameneigh Turbo is no railer in 3 and therefore Mesut can go up straight as he always does and improve on his quietly impressive 4 out of 5 record from trap 1. I, for one, questioned the great human Charlie Lister OBE for taking the “Wide” tag off Mesut but it seems to have worked the oracle with him as he is not hindered by the red box as you would have expected. Skate On is always dangerous as she can ping like me but the fact Zenas Boy managed to chase her down in the heats shows that she can be caught and in such a high-class affair, she can ill-afford any mistakes or falterings. Indeed, Boy has perhaps shown signs of not fully keeping his eyes on the prize in recent outings and his antics could maybe hinder both Skate On and the progressive Cheers Tony. Tony will need a career-best effort for me to win this as he has a few spots to find on Mesut but he rates the likeliest danger if Zenas Boy fails to come away. This really looks a simple race to call though.

20:04 – Hurdles

My colleagues have a go at jumping over some sticks here and there are some seasoned performers to scrutinise over. Whilst he has been out-of-sorts of late, Mash Mad Snowy relishes this long 4 bend trip over the obstacles and he has a good enough draw to use his back straight pace to full effect to claim this. Razldazl Butch is a frustrating sort and he will not be aided at all by Newinn Hawk who is a lively outsider as well as the rails-seeking Scolari Express. Whether Butch actually gets this trip is another concern and with all that in mind, Snowy is the bark in this race. Castleyons Cofi can hack up at any moment with a dazzling display: all too infrequently, though.

20:19 – Puppy Final

The young tykes have a go in their Final and it is worth chancing the promise shown by Droopys Bear being converted into his maiden win from a decent make-up. Millwards Teddy is a warm order and understandably considering the pace he has shown throughout his hectic career but he is a tardy starter who always looks like he prefers to be in trap 6, which he does not get here. With that considered, Bear can edge slightly left on the run-up as he had done in the heats and unless Droopys Beckett reproduces his miracle flier from his last race, it will become a straight tussle between Bear and the well-positioned Billys Bullet. When they opposed last week it was Bullet who emerged victorious but at the prices it has to be Bear to reverse that form. Down the back-straight they showed similar levels of pace and whilst therein Bullet asserted, Bear was somewhat green (as to be expected) around the third turn and seemed to lose his bearings and possibly pawings; if he can improve for that experience, I can see him going a lot closer than the 3 length winning margin suggested and he is worth chancing to improve.

20:34 – Stayers

A difficult race to call here with a vulnerable favourite in my eyes in the form of Droopys London. He has always shown pace throughout his career yet he wins too few for a dog of his ability and at 5/4 he is no value against some potentially progressive types over a trip. Polar Prospect is worth considering but he has never won out of trap 3 (5 starts) so that is a concern that he will hinder his chances too much from the start, even over 6 bends. Millwards Master could benefit from Prospect moving rails and London staying wide but the one of interest for me is the local Droopys Willis. In his only other previous attempt at the trip he galloped relentlessly from the outset (in a weak maiden) and whilst this is a step up in class, he has his favoured trap 1 to run from and is certainly positioned to outrun his odds. His performances in graded fare have been fairly backward since that emphatic victory over this trip but it is worth siding with him against the uneasy favourite to repeat that sub-14 sectional and steal a march on these.

20:49 – Bitches

I love watching bitches on late-night TV and this has the prospects of being a very exciting affair! The all-railer field has the ever-dependable railer Rewind Express in trap 4 and the rails-seeking pinger Beau Blue in trap 6. This has the feel of absolute carnage to it and makes Silverview Rosay of no interest at all as the favourite with 5 bitches descending on her from up high. With all that in mind, it is the stayer of this group, Aayamzamodel, who is fancied if she can miss the break and then watch the chaos ensue in front of her. She is, however, capable of pacing up herself on her day and therefore it is definitely a watching brief kind of race but unless any of these young damsels can avoid distress at the first bend and skip clear, Aayazamodel can pick up the pieces as a strong galloping stayer.

21:04 – Marathon

With the TV Trophy starting in Sheffield this evening (over 915m) failing to fill so the heats are having to be 5 runner affairs, having a marathon (over 930m) on the Sky card on the same night (with 6 runners) seems absolutely baffling to me. I understand Sheffield and Hove are the other sides of the country, but surely we should be filling my colleagues’ prestigious tournaments than having one-off races? Anyway, after not seeing Tango live earlier I am not surprised by this decision either so onwards to the race. It is one that lacks strength-in-depth and with the presence of non-staying front runner Boherna Bridge in the field, it is an opportunity to look for a progressive dour stayer in the making to reel him in. Fishing around for that stayer, I have taken on the clear favourite Live Queen in favour of the potentially very useful Parkers Star who has been crying to run from Hove to Sheffield, let alone over 930m, at her home track Romford. She has shown nice track craft at times and whilst she may be starting to flatter to deceive (especially over 750m which should be ideal for her at this stage), the fact connections have decided to send this puppy (Aug ’12) over this ludicrous trip so early in her career shows that they have seen what I am seeing: she needs as long as possible. At a price, she is capable of outstaying the favourite here with any sort of clear run for the pair.

21:19 – Sussex Cup Final

Exocet is the favourite here and whilst he has sprung to form just at the right time (2 fast sectionals in the heats and semi-final) he is a dog that has flattered to deceive for a long while now. That coupled with the fact he has never won from trap 6 in Ireland or England, means he has to be taken on at his price. There are loads of early pace merchants on the inside with Jaytee Lightning, Sidaz Pedro and Cathys Clown all capable of flying starts but those three are all drawn the wrong way round and therefore, Forest Gavin has to be the bark to maintain his unbeaten record from trap 1 at this track. Admittedly that is from 2 starts but if he can reproduce his ping from his first effort here (missed the break on his second win but paced up supremely), then he can assert from the first bend. 515m is perhaps as far as he wants but with the strong Bubbly Gold pawly drawn in trap 5, unless he can drop himself out onto the rail and get a run up the inside, he will surely find trouble even for a dog with his lovely trackcraft. Gold is also capable of pinging the lids (the first round of the Grand Prix at Sunderland is particularly memorable) and he certainly does not want to be doing that this evening with so many early-paced hounds on his inside. Exocet could easily get back to his best from nearly a year ago and win this with consummate ease, but Gavin is the progressive dog in this field and with a flier (which he will need) he has the draw to capitalise on.

Here are the recommendations:

19:34 – Islas Scolari – 1 doggie treat @ 10/3

19:49 – Southern Mesut – 1 piece of bread @ 13/8

20:19 – Droopys Bear – 1 breast of chicken @ 10/1

21:04 – Parkers Star – 1 chewstick @ 7/2

21:19 – Forest Gavin – 1 dog bone @ 9/2

So there are my thoughts on the proceedings! As ever, please tweet me if you have any comments and I promise to bark back at you faster than Mesut comes out of the traps this evening! It should be a fascinating night with lots of value about it seems, let’s hope it goes the way of the Lolly Faithful.

Enjoy the racing,

Jimmy

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