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Select Stakes and Supporting Sky Card Thoughts

What an evening we have in store here with one of the most competitive night’s racing of the year culminating in a mouth-wateringly wide-open Select Stakes. Nottingham is a gallopers track which always brings the top trainers down due to the fairness of the running surface and because of that, there is some really high class action this evening. It should be a cracker and as ever, I have found some value for the Lolly Faithful:

19:34 – Puppy

The young tykes have a go here and two of the fastest in training line-up in the form of Calzaghe George and Swift Hoffman. Preference is for the latter based on his draw out wide being far more suitable than the railing George’s in 5. As ever with these youngsters though one or other or both could miss the break though and these are two hounds who like to be on the bunny. Final Hawk is a dog to follow but he is desperate for the rails in his early career and his draw in 4 is a major hindrance, he has pace and a good attitude though.

19:49 – Bitches

This is a race that always has me on the edge of my sofa and here we see the versatile useful bitch Cashen Maureen as favourite. She looks short enough to me though with the ex-Irish Salacres Kingdom looking to take her room in the early exchanges as Maureen does tend to favour a mid-to-wide course (especially around here where she has notably moved off at the first bend before). With that in mind, it is worth backing the game bitch Chevy Blazer being able to ping out from 3 and lead the two bitches on her inside (the withdrawal of Teena Marina is a huge positive for her draw). She is a proven stayer over the 630m at her local track Monmore and might just take some catching over this galloping trip if she can secure a cheap lead.

20:04 – Sprint

Everyone’s favourite race here and we see the heir to my doggie throne in the form of Target Harris lining up here. He still has a long way to go to topple my achievements but he has shown blistering pace in the clear to miraculously manage to even equal my track record at Hove (I question the timer, personally…). He has not faced such a field of quality sprinters as this yet and the strength in depth is there for all to see. Southern Mesut is no mug but doesn’t ping like me enough, his lack of a “middle” tag next to his name is a concern also but who am I to question Charlie Lister OBE’s decision? Sound Flight and Cluxtons Free are very useful on their day but the value for me in this race is with the progressive and impressive Baliff Cairo to cheat his draw at a price. Mesut and Pride might have a tussle as they are drawn the wrong way round, Sound Flight can pace up to hold Harris enough and Cluxtons Free is just too inconsistent these days to trust, even at his price. Cairo has ran some cracking races for a young tyke in success and defeat and now he is drawn better in 3 as opposed to 1 (where he slightly missed it when beaten last), he can ping like me and steal this. Target Harris will have to produce a career best here for me, as it is more wide-open than the betting suggests.

20:19 – Stayers

This race is set for a battle between Droopys’ Hawaii and Adler but whilst they tussle on the inside, Killieford Khali is too big to swoop round the outside and make it 2 from 2 at Nottingham over this distance. Hawaii is not bulletproof as he has shown with some woeful efforts when not leading (when he led he did so very impressively over the trip, mind) and his sole victory to date can hardly inspire confidence in backing him so short. Droopys Adler was an Irish Derby Semi-Finalist last year and undoubtedly has pace and track craft, but his win ratio is again of huge concern and if anything, he can hinder Hawaii enough to allow something else to sneak in here: that is Khali. He is a galloping sort of dog that runs the bends badly but that should all be OK around here and if he can lead on the outside which he is more than capable of doing (admiteddly I would have preferred him out of 6), he can out-run his odds against the favourites.

20:34 – 480m

This has more question marks over it than my career at stud and it is perhaps a race best left alone. Mays King is perhaps the class act in the field but he has the sprinter Ballymac Budget inside of him so he is in by no means certain of getting a trouble-free round. If he can turn behind Budget, Charlie Lister’s dog simply does not stay so I think King can overhaul him eventually. That is by no means certain, especially if Greenwell Mentor turns up as the powerful dog that he was last year: he has been hugely disappointing this term.

20:49 – Dogs

In a race full of genuine railers there is always a case to be made for being on a pinger in trap 1 or a clever little doggie in trap 6. In this case, I think Some Turbo could be the answer as he has shown decent trackcraft in his short career. He has also shown he can run-on in his races which is certainly more than a few of these can do. Newinn Rocket next to him is not the force of old when he was extremely useful on his day, but it’s rare that he misses the break and he can cut across the local favourite Bromwich Tom to hinder his efforts. Johnny Kwango has an absolute ping in him which was shown in the Derby First Round but his effort in the 2nd (very disappointing) shows that he is an all-or-nothing type; he won’t like the two on his outside coming in on him. Baliff Turbo can also prove to be a nuisance on the inside. Brace yourself at the first bend here!

21:04 – Select Stayers Final

This looks a straight match between who can lead between Musical Gaga and Romantic Rambo because both have shown they will get the distance comfortably. Rambo has really run into some good form (7 from 9) and whilst his price has long gone, he can get first run on Gaga who will put up a valiant effort as ever in the race she won last year. Worsboro Phantom is well-placed and has some useful pace on his day.

21:19 – Select Stakes Final

Much has been made of the absentees from this year’s offering but nevertheless, it has made it into a cracking contest between very closely matched colleagues of mine. I cannot have Mileheight Alba out of 3; Salad Dodger has proved he can win on the biggest stage of them all but his win ratio is off-putting; Pay Freeze would be a lot shorter if his fitness was guaranteed; Davy’s draw looks perillous to me as Freeze goes straight up (as shown when coming out of 5 and 6 last year in big races); Exocet is simply not the dog he once was. That leads us all to my well-drawn, determined colleague Droopys Ward to confirm he is even better over a stiff 4 bends than when 2nd in the Derby and he can muscle his way through the field to atone for that defeat in May. He was arguably unlucky in the Derby, but he has no excuses tonight drawn outside of the mid-moving Salad Dodger (the victor on that occasion) this time.

Here are the recommendations:

19:49 – Chevy Blazer – 1 doggie treat @ 11/2

20:19 – Killieford Khali – 1 piece of bread @ 8/1

21:19 – Droopys Ward – 1 breast of chicken @ 4/1

So there are my thoughts on the proceedings! As ever please tweet me if you have any comments and I promise to reply with as much vigour as I will barking on Ward as he sneaks his way through the field tonight! It should be a fascinating evening with so many competitive affairs and let’s hope we can have a few winners at some big prices!

Enjoy the racing,

Jimmy

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