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Sussex Cup Final + Supporting Sky Card Thoughts

It’s shaping up to be a cracking night in front of the Sky cameras this evening with a mixed card of distances leading to some seriously classy contests down on the South Coast. Hove is a regularly viewed track on a Thursday Night on Racing Post Greyhound TV so humans have a real opportunity to gain that crucial advantage over the bookies as they know these dogs so well. The only disappointing aspect of the night and it must be barked is that the legendary Farloe Tango is running before the live action begins? Like him or loathe him, he is a colleague of mine that deserves to be in front of the cameras and it seems like greyhound promoters constantly shoot themselves in the paw as to regards to entertaining the crowds. Anyways, we move on to the action where there is plenty of value to be had for the Lolly Faithful:

19:34 – Standard

This race is all about the draw and despite the withdrawal of two runners earlier this morning and thus the reduction in his price, Islas Scolari is still value to assert around the outside and gallop around a track he loves. Droopys Norris and Underground Paul are quietly fancied on the inside by many but both will have to clear the ever-game Express Master who despite not finishing his races out quite like he used to, is always reliable of a ping around here and pacing up to the bend. That will hinder Norris in particular and with Underground Paul reverting back to his old tactics of coming out hopelessly last time out in the Sussex Cup, Scolari can swoop round these late as he did in the first round of that aforementioned tournament. Master is the key in this race to holding up the fancied pair, and Scolari never needs a second invitation.

19:49 – Sprint

Everyone’s favourite race here had a plum draw for Southern Mesut before the withdrawal of Wee Tiger Tots on his outside. Tots is a lovely bitch but is infamous for over-shooting the bend and with her presence in 2, she would have caused carnage for the runners outside of her in all probability. Even without her in the race, Leameneigh Turbo is no railer in 3 and therefore Mesut can go up straight as he always does and improve on his quietly impressive 4 out of 5 record from trap 1. I, for one, questioned the great human Charlie Lister OBE for taking the “Wide” tag off Mesut but it seems to have worked the oracle with him as he is not hindered by the red box as you would have expected. Skate On is always dangerous as she can ping like me but the fact Zenas Boy managed to chase her down in the heats shows that she can be caught and in such a high-class affair, she can ill-afford any mistakes or falterings. Indeed, Boy has perhaps shown signs of not fully keeping his eyes on the prize in recent outings and his antics could maybe hinder both Skate On and the progressive Cheers Tony. Tony will need a career-best effort for me to win this as he has a few spots to find on Mesut but he rates the likeliest danger if Zenas Boy fails to come away. This really looks a simple race to call though.

20:04 – Hurdles

My colleagues have a go at jumping over some sticks here and there are some seasoned performers to scrutinise over. Whilst he has been out-of-sorts of late, Mash Mad Snowy relishes this long 4 bend trip over the obstacles and he has a good enough draw to use his back straight pace to full effect to claim this. Razldazl Butch is a frustrating sort and he will not be aided at all by Newinn Hawk who is a lively outsider as well as the rails-seeking Scolari Express. Whether Butch actually gets this trip is another concern and with all that in mind, Snowy is the bark in this race. Castleyons Cofi can hack up at any moment with a dazzling display: all too infrequently, though.

20:19 – Puppy Final

The young tykes have a go in their Final and it is worth chancing the promise shown by Droopys Bear being converted into his maiden win from a decent make-up. Millwards Teddy is a warm order and understandably considering the pace he has shown throughout his hectic career but he is a tardy starter who always looks like he prefers to be in trap 6, which he does not get here. With that considered, Bear can edge slightly left on the run-up as he had done in the heats and unless Droopys Beckett reproduces his miracle flier from his last race, it will become a straight tussle between Bear and the well-positioned Billys Bullet. When they opposed last week it was Bullet who emerged victorious but at the prices it has to be Bear to reverse that form. Down the back-straight they showed similar levels of pace and whilst therein Bullet asserted, Bear was somewhat green (as to be expected) around the third turn and seemed to lose his bearings and possibly pawings; if he can improve for that experience, I can see him going a lot closer than the 3 length winning margin suggested and he is worth chancing to improve.

20:34 – Stayers

A difficult race to call here with a vulnerable favourite in my eyes in the form of Droopys London. He has always shown pace throughout his career yet he wins too few for a dog of his ability and at 5/4 he is no value against some potentially progressive types over a trip. Polar Prospect is worth considering but he has never won out of trap 3 (5 starts) so that is a concern that he will hinder his chances too much from the start, even over 6 bends. Millwards Master could benefit from Prospect moving rails and London staying wide but the one of interest for me is the local Droopys Willis. In his only other previous attempt at the trip he galloped relentlessly from the outset (in a weak maiden) and whilst this is a step up in class, he has his favoured trap 1 to run from and is certainly positioned to outrun his odds. His performances in graded fare have been fairly backward since that emphatic victory over this trip but it is worth siding with him against the uneasy favourite to repeat that sub-14 sectional and steal a march on these.

20:49 – Bitches

I love watching bitches on late-night TV and this has the prospects of being a very exciting affair! The all-railer field has the ever-dependable railer Rewind Express in trap 4 and the rails-seeking pinger Beau Blue in trap 6. This has the feel of absolute carnage to it and makes Silverview Rosay of no interest at all as the favourite with 5 bitches descending on her from up high. With all that in mind, it is the stayer of this group, Aayamzamodel, who is fancied if she can miss the break and then watch the chaos ensue in front of her. She is, however, capable of pacing up herself on her day and therefore it is definitely a watching brief kind of race but unless any of these young damsels can avoid distress at the first bend and skip clear, Aayazamodel can pick up the pieces as a strong galloping stayer.

21:04 – Marathon

With the TV Trophy starting in Sheffield this evening (over 915m) failing to fill so the heats are having to be 5 runner affairs, having a marathon (over 930m) on the Sky card on the same night (with 6 runners) seems absolutely baffling to me. I understand Sheffield and Hove are the other sides of the country, but surely we should be filling my colleagues’ prestigious tournaments than having one-off races? Anyway, after not seeing Tango live earlier I am not surprised by this decision either so onwards to the race. It is one that lacks strength-in-depth and with the presence of non-staying front runner Boherna Bridge in the field, it is an opportunity to look for a progressive dour stayer in the making to reel him in. Fishing around for that stayer, I have taken on the clear favourite Live Queen in favour of the potentially very useful Parkers Star who has been crying to run from Hove to Sheffield, let alone over 930m, at her home track Romford. She has shown nice track craft at times and whilst she may be starting to flatter to deceive (especially over 750m which should be ideal for her at this stage), the fact connections have decided to send this puppy (Aug ’12) over this ludicrous trip so early in her career shows that they have seen what I am seeing: she needs as long as possible. At a price, she is capable of outstaying the favourite here with any sort of clear run for the pair.

21:19 – Sussex Cup Final

Exocet is the favourite here and whilst he has sprung to form just at the right time (2 fast sectionals in the heats and semi-final) he is a dog that has flattered to deceive for a long while now. That coupled with the fact he has never won from trap 6 in Ireland or England, means he has to be taken on at his price. There are loads of early pace merchants on the inside with Jaytee Lightning, Sidaz Pedro and Cathys Clown all capable of flying starts but those three are all drawn the wrong way round and therefore, Forest Gavin has to be the bark to maintain his unbeaten record from trap 1 at this track. Admittedly that is from 2 starts but if he can reproduce his ping from his first effort here (missed the break on his second win but paced up supremely), then he can assert from the first bend. 515m is perhaps as far as he wants but with the strong Bubbly Gold pawly drawn in trap 5, unless he can drop himself out onto the rail and get a run up the inside, he will surely find trouble even for a dog with his lovely trackcraft. Gold is also capable of pinging the lids (the first round of the Grand Prix at Sunderland is particularly memorable) and he certainly does not want to be doing that this evening with so many early-paced hounds on his inside. Exocet could easily get back to his best from nearly a year ago and win this with consummate ease, but Gavin is the progressive dog in this field and with a flier (which he will need) he has the draw to capitalise on.

Here are the recommendations:

19:34 – Islas Scolari – 1 doggie treat @ 10/3

19:49 – Southern Mesut – 1 piece of bread @ 13/8

20:19 – Droopys Bear – 1 breast of chicken @ 10/1

21:04 – Parkers Star – 1 chewstick @ 7/2

21:19 – Forest Gavin – 1 dog bone @ 9/2

So there are my thoughts on the proceedings! As ever, please tweet me if you have any comments and I promise to bark back at you faster than Mesut comes out of the traps this evening! It should be a fascinating night with lots of value about it seems, let’s hope it goes the way of the Lolly Faithful.

Enjoy the racing,

Jimmy

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Select Stakes and Supporting Sky Card Thoughts

What an evening we have in store here with one of the most competitive night’s racing of the year culminating in a mouth-wateringly wide-open Select Stakes. Nottingham is a gallopers track which always brings the top trainers down due to the fairness of the running surface and because of that, there is some really high class action this evening. It should be a cracker and as ever, I have found some value for the Lolly Faithful:

19:34 – Puppy

The young tykes have a go here and two of the fastest in training line-up in the form of Calzaghe George and Swift Hoffman. Preference is for the latter based on his draw out wide being far more suitable than the railing George’s in 5. As ever with these youngsters though one or other or both could miss the break though and these are two hounds who like to be on the bunny. Final Hawk is a dog to follow but he is desperate for the rails in his early career and his draw in 4 is a major hindrance, he has pace and a good attitude though.

19:49 – Bitches

This is a race that always has me on the edge of my sofa and here we see the versatile useful bitch Cashen Maureen as favourite. She looks short enough to me though with the ex-Irish Salacres Kingdom looking to take her room in the early exchanges as Maureen does tend to favour a mid-to-wide course (especially around here where she has notably moved off at the first bend before). With that in mind, it is worth backing the game bitch Chevy Blazer being able to ping out from 3 and lead the two bitches on her inside (the withdrawal of Teena Marina is a huge positive for her draw). She is a proven stayer over the 630m at her local track Monmore and might just take some catching over this galloping trip if she can secure a cheap lead.

20:04 – Sprint

Everyone’s favourite race here and we see the heir to my doggie throne in the form of Target Harris lining up here. He still has a long way to go to topple my achievements but he has shown blistering pace in the clear to miraculously manage to even equal my track record at Hove (I question the timer, personally…). He has not faced such a field of quality sprinters as this yet and the strength in depth is there for all to see. Southern Mesut is no mug but doesn’t ping like me enough, his lack of a “middle” tag next to his name is a concern also but who am I to question Charlie Lister OBE’s decision? Sound Flight and Cluxtons Free are very useful on their day but the value for me in this race is with the progressive and impressive Baliff Cairo to cheat his draw at a price. Mesut and Pride might have a tussle as they are drawn the wrong way round, Sound Flight can pace up to hold Harris enough and Cluxtons Free is just too inconsistent these days to trust, even at his price. Cairo has ran some cracking races for a young tyke in success and defeat and now he is drawn better in 3 as opposed to 1 (where he slightly missed it when beaten last), he can ping like me and steal this. Target Harris will have to produce a career best here for me, as it is more wide-open than the betting suggests.

20:19 – Stayers

This race is set for a battle between Droopys’ Hawaii and Adler but whilst they tussle on the inside, Killieford Khali is too big to swoop round the outside and make it 2 from 2 at Nottingham over this distance. Hawaii is not bulletproof as he has shown with some woeful efforts when not leading (when he led he did so very impressively over the trip, mind) and his sole victory to date can hardly inspire confidence in backing him so short. Droopys Adler was an Irish Derby Semi-Finalist last year and undoubtedly has pace and track craft, but his win ratio is again of huge concern and if anything, he can hinder Hawaii enough to allow something else to sneak in here: that is Khali. He is a galloping sort of dog that runs the bends badly but that should all be OK around here and if he can lead on the outside which he is more than capable of doing (admiteddly I would have preferred him out of 6), he can out-run his odds against the favourites.

20:34 – 480m

This has more question marks over it than my career at stud and it is perhaps a race best left alone. Mays King is perhaps the class act in the field but he has the sprinter Ballymac Budget inside of him so he is in by no means certain of getting a trouble-free round. If he can turn behind Budget, Charlie Lister’s dog simply does not stay so I think King can overhaul him eventually. That is by no means certain, especially if Greenwell Mentor turns up as the powerful dog that he was last year: he has been hugely disappointing this term.

20:49 – Dogs

In a race full of genuine railers there is always a case to be made for being on a pinger in trap 1 or a clever little doggie in trap 6. In this case, I think Some Turbo could be the answer as he has shown decent trackcraft in his short career. He has also shown he can run-on in his races which is certainly more than a few of these can do. Newinn Rocket next to him is not the force of old when he was extremely useful on his day, but it’s rare that he misses the break and he can cut across the local favourite Bromwich Tom to hinder his efforts. Johnny Kwango has an absolute ping in him which was shown in the Derby First Round but his effort in the 2nd (very disappointing) shows that he is an all-or-nothing type; he won’t like the two on his outside coming in on him. Baliff Turbo can also prove to be a nuisance on the inside. Brace yourself at the first bend here!

21:04 – Select Stayers Final

This looks a straight match between who can lead between Musical Gaga and Romantic Rambo because both have shown they will get the distance comfortably. Rambo has really run into some good form (7 from 9) and whilst his price has long gone, he can get first run on Gaga who will put up a valiant effort as ever in the race she won last year. Worsboro Phantom is well-placed and has some useful pace on his day.

21:19 – Select Stakes Final

Much has been made of the absentees from this year’s offering but nevertheless, it has made it into a cracking contest between very closely matched colleagues of mine. I cannot have Mileheight Alba out of 3; Salad Dodger has proved he can win on the biggest stage of them all but his win ratio is off-putting; Pay Freeze would be a lot shorter if his fitness was guaranteed; Davy’s draw looks perillous to me as Freeze goes straight up (as shown when coming out of 5 and 6 last year in big races); Exocet is simply not the dog he once was. That leads us all to my well-drawn, determined colleague Droopys Ward to confirm he is even better over a stiff 4 bends than when 2nd in the Derby and he can muscle his way through the field to atone for that defeat in May. He was arguably unlucky in the Derby, but he has no excuses tonight drawn outside of the mid-moving Salad Dodger (the victor on that occasion) this time.

Here are the recommendations:

19:49 – Chevy Blazer – 1 doggie treat @ 11/2

20:19 – Killieford Khali – 1 piece of bread @ 8/1

21:19 – Droopys Ward – 1 breast of chicken @ 4/1

So there are my thoughts on the proceedings! As ever please tweet me if you have any comments and I promise to reply with as much vigour as I will barking on Ward as he sneaks his way through the field tonight! It should be a fascinating evening with so many competitive affairs and let’s hope we can have a few winners at some big prices!

Enjoy the racing,

Jimmy

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William Hill Festival of Racing Thoughts

There’s a cracking night ahead of us from Sunderland this evening with a grand total of nearly 50,000 doggie treats to be won across the card! That of course, means that the top class colleagues of mine from across the country have made the long trip up to the North-East and what they meet is a quirky kind of track. With it’s wide straights and narrow turns, Sunderland often sees us dogs running off at the bend, particularly the first, and then righting ourselves to continue our pursuit of the bunny. Therefore, the name of the game here is to be out the front chasing the hare and so early-paced merchants like yours truly are the type you want at this track. The racing is of a high quality throughout and as ever, I have found some value for the Lolly Faithful:

19:34 – Stayers

Lagganmore Milan is a frustrating sort who is without question seen to best effect when he is able to dictate matters. If he can clear the local bitch in trap 2 (who has a ping in her) he can put this race to his doggie bed with his galloping speed in front. Farley Chicken is a decent addition to the staying ranks but proved how invaluable it is to be in the lead around here when he got in all sorts of trouble in the Grand Prix heats when a beaten odds-on shot. He is more than capable of giving Milan a race if he can stay trouble-free but that is no guarantee at Sunderland at all. Killieford Khali has ability when he puts his best paw forward but his bend running leaves a lot to be desired and that is especially exposed around these tight ones.

19:49 – Standard

Airfield Paudie has yet to show his ability in a race on these shores yet and also looks to me as if he struggles to get home, even over this shortish 4 bend trip: he has to be opposed. Ryma Boca is a likeable bitch who is reliable at the boxes and game on the bunny. She is also drawn inside Paudie which will mean that any sort of running-off-at-the-bend shenanigans that occur will play into her paws if she is brave enough and that should mean she can secure a winning position at the first bend. Greenwell Mentor has pace in droves and is always feared but his efforts at Monmore in May were hugely disappointing for a dog of his pace. Pinpoint Lad could be anything from the respected Macari kennel.

20:04 – Marathon

In a race lacking in depth it is still worth opposing Aayamzabella from a woeful draw for her. She is a tight railing bitch who will do anything to be on the inside and with pace inside her (especially from Boherna Bridge) she is going to probably struggle to get a comfortable slot for herself over the first circuit. With that in mind, it is worth taking a chance that King Kane can stay on his marathon bow for his new trainer, Diane Henry. Under Liz McNair he was never tried over this distance which is of concern considering he saw out his 6 bend efforts pretty well but in a paw quality marathon, he can steal a march on these and hold on for dear life towards the end.

20:19 – Standard

Candlelight King is a type made for Sunderland and it would be of huge surprise if he were to not win his first race away from Sheffield here. He has the inside draw to his main rival for the lead, Mill Jolson, who is a young tyke who is surely destined to step down in trip to be seen to full effect. Even if Jolson turns in front of King, it is hard to see how he can maintain the advantage for the full trip as he does not see it out well at all. The only concern for King is the reluctance of his connections to run him away from his home track; in barking that though he was very unlucky in the Derby First Round at Wimbledon in his only start away from home when eliminated having been stamped on down the back straight.

20:34 – Festival Flyer

Everyone’s favourite race here and the value is to back the ever-dependable Skate On to make amends for her defeat in the heats. She has shown in the past that she needs a go at the traps once before she pings (memorably left a quality field for dead on Derby Final night this year) and now she has had a look at the boxes, she can ping and make-all. Cape Impact likes the rails and will be turning left into Baliff Cairo so they will have to both be on their toes. Conna Trigger won the heat ahead of Skate On last week but she is a better class than him when both on song in my dog’s honest opinion. It’s all about the break as ever with these sprints, and Skate On pings like me.

20:49 – Puppy Plate

The effort of Newinn Yolo in the Gymcrack final was quite simply breathtaking in defeat and his pace is being underrated in this contest I feel. Calzaghe George is a very fast young tyke on the bunny but as a youngster, he has been known to throw in some atrocious performances and Yolo has shown he needs no second invitation to chase down his rivals. Yolo is not devoid of early here and with his draw inside his main competitor, he can land the spoils in impressive fashion.

21:04 – Grand Prix Final

Bubbly Gold has excelled since stepping up in trip after his decent campaign in the Derby and he will take all the beating here. He has shown that over this distance he is capable of pinging and leading, and even if he doesn’t get to the front early, he is a classy customer. Tough work for the rest here.

21:19 – Classic Final

Both finals have the feel of inevitability about them and with the withdrawal of Bubbly Rocket in trap 5 helping his cause, defending champion Pinpoint Maxi is simply unopposable to retain his crown. Unbeaten in 7 starts for Kelly Macari, his early pace is quite simply staggering and hopefully we can see him line-up in more Category One tournaments this year. An outstanding training performance to bring him back after nearly a year off with injury due to a broken hock suffered in a trial, his connections and kennel humans deserve this victory. They should get it.

Here are the recommendations:

19:49 – Ryma Boca – 1 doggie treat @ 3/1

20:04 – King Kane – 1 piece of bread @ 5/1

20:34 – Skate On – 1 breast of chicken @ 9/2

20:49 – Newinn Yolo – 1 chewstick @ 7/4

So there are my thoughts on the proceedings! As ever, please tweet me if you have any comments and I promise to bark back at you faster than Skate On pings the lids tonight. It should be a cracking night and let’s hope for a demonstration of pace from the wonderful story that is Pinpoint Maxi.

Enjoy the racing,

Jimmy