There is no doubt it has been a disapointing Derby for the Lolly Faithful with the desperate elimination of Holdem Spy on Tuesday confounding the misery, but that doesn’t stop the excitement as we draw towards the conclusion of this magnificent tournament. All of the Semi-Finalists, regardless of their reputation beforehand, are thoroughly deserving of their place and let’s hope they all cope with the 3 runs in a week. The supporting card tonight features the Derby Plate and Champion Hurdle heats which have a real strength in depth to them so it should be a cracking night! As ever, I have found some value for the Lolly Faithful:
19:10 – Derby Plate 1
This is a really intriguing contest with some high class performers and as ever in these sort of affairs, the draw is crucial and that is why Toms Knowledge is the value. Bittles Bar has always shown a tendency to run mid-to-wide at Wimbledon and that can play into the paws of Knowledge to power up the inside. He held his own for 3 bends against the track record holder Fiery Splendour in the Derby and if he can produce that sort of run, he will surely outrun his odds. Jaytee Lightning is always a game performer and is respected, as is Borneo who his human has suggested runs better earlier on a card than later.
19:25 – Derby Plate 2
There is a lot of speed here in Airfield Paudie, Southern Mesut and Brosna King. With that in mind, they could all over-exert themselves in trying to establish an early lead and Islas Scolari runs this track particularly well, as he demonstrated last year in the Derby and this. He is also capable of pinging from the 6 box and whilst he does not have the early of the aforementioned rivals, he can turn handy enough to mow them down late on.
19:40 – Derby Plate 3
Ballymac Niall has the early and the draw to lead this contest and as he demonstrated in the first round of the Derby, he is extremely hard to catch on the bunny. Mileheight Alba is draw dependent and whilst he is better housed in 3 than when eliminated in the main event when drawn in 5, he will still have to clear the useful All About Ya. Airlie Impact has not been the force of old for some time, sadly.
19:55 – Champion Hurdle 1
Westmead Meteor is an impressive hurdler and will take some beating, but there are few dogs running over the obstacles with the pace that Mash Mad Snowy has and he is value to win this. Whilst he perhaps needs further, he can turn handy enough to Meteor and put up a serious challenge down the back straight. Rummy Lord is not the same dog away from Romford but his hurdling is particularly useful and he could run well at a price.
20:10 – Champion Hurdle 2
Soviet Military is a fast fluent hurdler on the bunny but the value here is to take him on with the Irish Grand National victor Jetstream Reason. Reason, in contrast, is not the highest over his obstacles and he will have to take to the English versions to be able to be competitive, but he has abundant pace and can overturn the jolly here.
20:25 – Champion Hurdle 3
I think that the winner of this year’s tournament will come from this race in my dog’s honest opinion and as drawn, Cornamaddy Jumbo can make all. He began his career very brightly over the sticks but has since started to show less respect for them. Whilst that is a concern, Droopys Lorenzo practically runs through them too so fluent hurdling is unlikely to be on display here. Westmead Bertie has always been a likeable sort and is very well drawn, but he does not possess the brute early pace of Jumbo.
20:45 – Derby Semi Final 1
Metro Jack is of interest here back in his preferred red box but the best drawn colleague of mine is Ecclestone who, if he avoids other dogs, can catch Crokers Champ. Champ’s draw is not as bad as many suggest because he pinged like me out of 4 earlier in the tournament but his Quarter Final was trouble marred and his slow time is of some concern. Salad Dodger and Droopys Ward have run with great credit in this tournament and will be flying at the death.
21:05 – Derby Semi Final 2
Mind The Net is the clear favourite for me to win the Derby as he continues to progress since his 2nd in the Scottish Derby. He possesses useful early but it is his desire from the 2nd bend thereon that is mightily impressive. Aero Nemesis has his draw and has not put a paw wrong in the tournament so far, but he is yet to be truly tested when he has been given the lead and it will be interesting to see how he fares with the 3 quick runs in a week. Brother John simply does not know when he is beat and is a credit to himself.
Here are the recommendations:
19:10 – Toms Knowledge – 1 doggie treat @ 11/2
Derby Plate:
Toms Knowledge – 1 piece of bread broken in two @ 33/1
Champion Hurdle:
Cornamaddy Jumbo – 1 breast of chicken @ 6/1
So there are my thoughts on the proceedings! As ever, please tweet me if you have any comments and I promise to bark back at you with as much vigour as I desperately barked on Holdem Spy last week. He may be gone from the tournament, but the Lolly Faithful will never forget his efforts and let’s see if Mind The Net can frank his form tonight.
Enjoy the racing,
Jimmy