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The Arc Final + Supporting Sky Card Thoughts

My colleagues line-up this evening with their Derby aspirations firmly in the back of their mind and whilst it is not a vintage renewal of The Arc, it has always been a good indicator for the Derby and in particular those in good form for the first few rounds. Shaneboy Alley won this competition around Swindon for the Lolly Faithful last year and whilst there did not appear any real value in the antepost market this time, there is one dog in the final this evening that appears far too big to my ever watchful eyes. Besides the big race, there is a competitive looking supporting card and as ever, I have found some value for the Lolly Faithful:

19:34 – Bitches

Always nice to start with a mouth-watering contest that the bitches races present and here, I think it will be a battle for early supremacy on the inside. Droopys Cottage is in fine fettle and ran the track OK in a trial but crucially, the comment of “mid-wide” for that effort should be of huge concern to the bitch drawn immediately outside of her in Fairest Royal. Whilst either of those could skip clear, trouble on the run-up could present the race to the game Sharies Miller. She was a no-show in the Arc first round which is not hugely encouraging but Jolly Bullseye is a class act around here and she simply could not live with his early and then rather started thinking about her dog food later rather than chasing the bunny. With the draw in her favour, we can see her put up a much more sprited effort this evening and skip round on the inside to assert.

19:49 – Sprint

Everyone’s favourite race here and what a fascinating contest it looks! A case could be made for all of these but in races like this, the draw can prove the deciding factor and in that regard, Zenas Boy is fancied to skip round the outside. Of course, any of these could get a flier and put the race to bed (as I did so often) but barring that, Skate On and Andlyns Asabat are reliable pingers and drawn the wrong way round which will also do the often slow-starting (for the grade) Aero Twizzle no favours. Brosna King took his chance last week and winning form should never be underestimated but I doubt he is quite up to this class and will have to produce a career best effort this evening to land the spoils. Witcombe Dilemma loves it at his home track but I’m unsure he has genuine 2-bend speed to be able to live with these highly esteemed colleague of mine. Zenas Boy did put in a disappointing effort in his first look at the track in a trial last week, but he is normally a reliable sort and can skip clear around the outside.

20:04 – Standard

This race had me spinning round on my sofa with excitement this morning when I saw the price of Garryglass Rodge and I haven’t stopped howling since. He is a class act out of trap 1, is in the similar type of form he was last spring when he dazzled some high class fields in the Derby and has a brilliant draw to work from with Melodys Midnight far from reliable at the boxes. Rodge has a never-say-die attitude which has led him to lead the likes of then-Derby favourite Ballymac Eske for 479m of the 480m at Wimbledon in the first round of the Derby last year before destroying a good field in the 2nd round from an unfavourable draw (out of 4). I also think that Swindon is a track that favours the railers and with the track expected to be running fast tonight (it has been fast all week), he will be very, very hard to catch. Ballycannon Hope is a fast dog but his trial of 28:29 around here looks out-of-place compared to his efforts in races and he will have to get luck in-running to feature as he is susceptible to missing the break and not being able to go with the faster starting hounds on the run-up. His effort may also be hindered by Guinness Spark who is an in-and-out sort but is a confirmed railer; whilst he has the pace to go close in this he is very inconsistent and will need a career best here to live with Rodge. El Domingo looked like he had never seen a greyhound track last week and whilst Paradise Malibu is a nice, game sort from Ireland, he cannot afford to give Rodge anywhere near the start he gave the field last week. Rodge to show his class here.

20:19 – Super Stayers

This race of performers over a ridiculous distance centres around Storm Pockets and whether she is the force of old: I think not. If she was she would win this by a long way but she just seems to me that she’d much prefer to be lay next to me on my sofa than chasing those pesky hares on the track. With that in mind that she won’t put her best paw forward, I am taking a chance that Miss Understated can reproduce her Irish form: if she does that she will win this. Swift Kennedy looks to have a strange pawtfolio of skills for a stayer so he is best swerved and it is hard to assess the three Poole raiders. Cashen Sarah looks like she has the measure of Francos Causeway at their home track but then Have A Think looks as though she can beat either of them on their day; basically, I think they are all about as good as each other so take your pick. That barked, Miss Understated was a class above these Poole raiders in Ireland and at the prices, she is the value.

20:34 – Puppy

The young tykes have a go here and in Forest Gavin we have an exciting prospect who has put in some very flashy times in trials and races. Yet, should he be as short as 6/4 against the more experienced dogs? I don’t think so. In his first effort here he got the first bend all wrong and whilst it did not cost him, against classier sorts like these tonight then he may just be found out. For instance, Millwards Teddy has a lovely turn of paw and also has a good draw to work from with Droopys Jarrow seemingly not knowing whether he wants the rails, middle, wide or to run the other side of the hare rail. Whilst Jarrow with a clear run is undoubtedly a very fast young tyke, I much prefer to rely on the consistent Teddy here to assert on the outside should Forest Gavin not handle the step up in class first time out. If Gavin gets on the bunny, there is only one winner in my eyes but Teddy is surely too big to skip clear and utilise his extra knowledge of his job.

20:49 – Super Standard

Two extremely high class performers line up here in Airport Captain and Droopys Odell. With the long run up to the bend and it being his perfect distance, preference is for the latter even though he would much prefer to be drawn inside his main rival here. It also has to be factored into the equation that Ericks Gav is no trap 1 dog and will be moving wide which all leads to this classy affair having a messy looking outcome to it. It is a shame there is not a stand out performer drawn wide of these three as they would have to come into the equation, but I just can’t see any of them being fast enough to cope with Captain or indeed, Odell.

21:04 – Stayers

This is a very intriguing affair with a lot of inconsistent sorts to try and assess. Joscar put in a good trial the other day yet he has failed to sparkle in races of late and so is passed over in favour of the brute, raw pace of Droopys Ed Moses. You have to have faith in Moses as he invariably drops himself to the back of any field before ploughing through them on the outside but on his day, he is very hard to contain. His presence gives Droopys Diop a great chance to lead the outside unopposed and he is a dangerous sort on the bunny but it is always hard to not consider Moses as he has the pace to go past the vast majority of dogs in training. Romantic Rambo save his best for Crayford and sadly disappoints on his travels.

21:19 – The Arc

I barked earlier that this is not a vintage renewal and whilst I hope my colleagues here go on to prove me wrong, it is certainly a race with intrigue following the sad withdrawal of Benkaat Nero due to injury. Sidaz Harris and All About Ya will be fighting it out on the rail and whilst the sectionals may prove to be telling (in that Harris should lead), I think All About Ya will give him a great battle for early supremacy and that could hinder boths chances. This should set the race up perfectly for Islas Scolari who will have the freedom of Wiltshire on the outside with Zero Two darting straight for the rails (she could also join that battle with the 1 and 2 dogs). Scolari is not renowned for his trapping but he has improved during this competition and that is dangerous for his rivals as he is such a strong sort. He can power up the back straight and continue his relentless galloping to victory.

So here are the recommendations:

20:04 – Garryglass Rodge – 3 doggie treats @ 2/1

20:34 – Millwards Teddy – 1 dog bone @ 3/1

21:19 – Islas Scolari – 2 pieces of bread @ 7/2

So there are my thoughts on the proceedings. As ever, if you have any comments please tweet me and I promise to bark with all of the fervour that I displayed when I saw Rodge’s price this morning. It should be a cracking night and it should finish with the Lolly Faithful dining in style on doggie treats when Scolari hits the front in the last!

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