Well, it’s been raining cats and greyhounds in Birmingham all day and whilst it was an intriguing card already, the key question to ask about my colleagues this evening in assessing their chances is: how good is their doggie paddle? Apart from enjoying my hilarious jokes, the Lolly Faithful are also happy with our antepost selection of Blonde Razor in the big race; he has a similar draw to last week and must have every chance of getting his paws on the Prestige trophy!

Hall Green is a track with good drainage but when the rain is as persistent as this, it does tend to favour the outside and so the wide dogs should prosper in the conditions this evening; that is not to bark that the inside dogs do not have a chance as I am sure the track humans will be doing their utmost to ensure as level a playing track as possible. It is a welcome return for Hall Green to the Sky cameras as whilst some humans criticise the tight bends (in particular the first 2), it makes it easier in my opinion to assess the chances of my canine colleagues. Another crucial factor, as a generalisation, is that I am yet to see a dog who has not had a sight of the track go round the 2nd bend with any sort of fluency as it is tight and approaches all-too-quickly for those who don’t know it’s there: track knowledge is a big factor here! The strength-in-depth is perhaps not quite there this evening like most Sky cards, but it is still competitive and as ever, I have found some value for the Lolly Faithful on the rain-sodden surface:

19:34 – Sprint

It’s always nice to see everyone’s favourite race begin the evening, and here the value is with the mid-to-wide running Wee Tiger Tots to continue building his progressive profile. I know this immediately contradicts what I barked on about in the introduction in that you need to have a look at the track at Hall Green, but the 3rd and 4th bends are very forgiving in comparison so the sprinters should not have a problem negotiating their way round. Aero Twizzle is a huge danger but is erratic at the traps, particularly on his first go at them, and he will have to clear the reliable Cape Impact who is a rails hugger. Ballymac Denis is the track record holder and if the veteran can find his old form, he could make a mockery of his price at his home track.

19:49 – Puppy

The youngsters have a go here and it features a lot of little tykes that are unexposed. For me, it is even more important for the puppies to have a look at this track and therefore the value lies in Swift Suarez who’s trial was unspectacular, but at least he knows where to run now! Lemon Laveer clearly has a lot of pace but looks a stayer in the making and whilst Coolavanny Mario has a nice draw, his inexperience at this circuit could be his downfall.

20:04 – Marathon

Here we have the first of two marathons for these barking mad dogs who want to go round the track twice! Enda Causeway was eye-catching in defeat when losing to Blonde Razor in the heats of the Prestige as she was making rapid headway late on, yet she is still yet to prove she can stay this long marathon distance on a heavy track. One dog that will definitely get this distance and go for a victory lap at the same pace if he wins, is Incitatus. He is a very one-paced colleague of mine but the TV Trophy third has a pair of lungs on him and can grind these into submission. I am unconvinced that his calculated 28:56 trial is a genuine reflection of his trial the other day but he has now had three looks at the track so will be all-too-familiar with the tight bends. Ballymac Ruth is interesting stepping up to a true marathon after running-on in virtually all of her 6 bend efforts; whether she has the pace to keep up with Causeway or Incitatus for the majority of the race is questionable though.

20:19 – Stayers

The perfect example of my analysis of Hall Green can be viewed here in the form of Sidarian Jaguar who on his first look over the 4 bend trip, was noted as being “W2” (Wide 2nd Bend) which indicates to me that he ran-off at the bend. Yes, he is a wide dog as a rule but now he has had a look, I expect him to come on for that run and he is a different class to this field in my dog’s honest opinion. He has been running with real credit against useful Romford sorts and this slightly longer trip should play right into his hands. Connections of Tooreen Hawk will be desperate for him to impress hear after howling in disgust at him not being accepted for the Prestige itself, yet he has a draw fraught with danger as Sidelight is always capable of a pinging break on his inside. King Danni is a consistent sort but her posititioning next to Jaguar only enhances his chances of getting a solo out wide and powering to victory.

20:34 – Maiden

It is rare to see a maiden on a Sky card but I am making no bones about it as there is great value in track stalwart Old Codger here. I would fancy him even more if I was typing this with my paws halfway through the night knowing the going was a level playing track, but he is still worth getting on side here. He has proven in his comeback trials that he can be explosive on this sort of sodden ground, and whilst his competitors may be treading water, he’ll be flying up the inside to assert. Keady Bosco is an interesting entrant as we really haven’t been able to see the best of him as he has been pitched in the deep end on virtually every run; I am happy to take him on but he is definitely the unknown entity of the field for me. This brings me to my discrepancy with the trial of Incitatus that I mentioned earlier: I cannot believe Pleasant Moments gained 0.61 seconds off a 5.02 split around here for her second look at the track and I think you are barking up the wrong tree if you think she can repeat that. If she doesn’t repeat that effort, this race is at the mercy of Old Codger.

20:49 – Marathon

I know I am going against one of Jimmy Lolly’s golden rules of acquiring doggie treats here in going against my overall opinion, but I just cannot see how Em Millie is not a very strong favourite here. She has not had a look which is my concern, but it is only a minor one as the marathon dogs will not be going as fast into the first two bends as the standard distance hounds. In the voided race at Romford on Sky last time out (because of Barley Bussell sadly breaking down on the track), Millie was cruising into a position to assert over reopposing Lady Belle. Indeed, Millie’s main opposition here for me is the second worst drawn dog on the card in Aayamzabella who loves to rail, and trap 5 isn’t the place to be doing that from the off. She is a superb marathon bitch but Aayamzabella’s craving for the rails sometimes overtakes her craving for chasing the bunny and whilst she is as genuine as they come, her rails fetish will be her downfall here for me. Boherna Bridge will almost certainly struggle to get this distance on heavy ground and whilst Burgess Borna seems to motor in trials, her efforts in quality company leave a lot to be desired. Em Millie to cruise round the outside here.

21:04 – Standard

This brings me to the worst drawn dog on the card: Garryglass Rodge. He set the Derby alight last year with his fast starts but one thing that is so memorable about him is his immediate dash to the rails, regardless of obstacles in his way; therefore I am discounting traps 1,2 and 3 before I even begin contemplating the race as Rodge could cause chaos. That accompanied with the anticipated going favouring the wide dogs meaning that it is a call between Mountjoy Rebel and Southern Mesut. I have sided with the former as he is the value based on his efforts over this true 4 bend trip. Of course, if Southern Mesut can keep his exhillirating early-speed up for the full 4 bends he is a faster dog than Rebel, but that is far from guaranteed and he is certainly not value to do so. Rebel has also had a look at the track and so if Rodge causes chaos, Rebel can confirm his stamina over Mesut.

21:19 – Prestige Final

So here we are! Can Blonde Razor cheat his draw again and win the Prestige for his connections and the Lolly Faithful! Much has been made of his draw but I think he is actually in a better position than his main rival, Senior Cup, because Cup is a confirmed railer around here and will have to be paw perfect to get to the rails from the coffin box. Razor is less eager to get to the rails and could have a nice run to the bend if Cup does indeed turn left. Whoever leads out of those two wins for me as it is hard to see the rest of the field being able to back run them. Midway Nick is a dependable sort but he just lacks the pace to be competitive in these sorts of finals.

Here are the recommendations:

Em Millie – 3 breasts of chicken (and my kennel if it is favouring wides) @ 5/2

So there we are! It should be fantastic night and as ever, if you have any comments please don’t hesitate to tweet me and provided I’m not swimming around the field on my walk, I’ll bark right back at you! Blonde Razor needs to be sharp at the start for us tonight, but he is more than capable of pinging like me tonight!