What a night we have in store for us as the most competitive racing since Derby Final night sees some of my finest colleagues running around Newcastle. Whilst my excitement is building, it is impossible to forget last year’s meeting that will be forever known in the Lolly Household as Tumbleweed Tuesday as local runners at big prices dominated the card: my local Geordie colleagues should be respected tonight, I’m shore of that. Due to the competitive nature of the racing and the quality racing surface, there is definitely value to be had and that is what I have found for the Lolly Faithful. Here are my thoughts on the proceedings:
19:34 – Sprint
Everyone’s favourite distance kicks off the night and a sprinter that definitely would have at least been able to see me at some point in a race should be backed here: Jumeirah Dubai. He exploded onto the scene last year on supporting cards to the Scottish Derby and built up an impressive reputation. Whilst he has been changed to a Wide seed which is of some concern, it has given him a great draw to work from out wide as there is a great possibility for inside scrimmaging here. Farkland Tyson is one of those pesky local runners that could sprint a surprise but the main impact of him on this race is probably to hold the quirky, but always dangerous, Mill Bullseye. Bullseye arguably prefers it round his Mackem homeland than at other tracks but he undoubtedly has pace. He is outclassed by Dubai, however.
19:49 – Standard
Droopys Pride took a nasty fall in the All England cup when fancied and is not ideally placed in trap 3 for this rails-loving colleague of mine. He has pace but does not have the profile of Hather George or Bubbly Phoenix who are expected to have a fierce battle down the far side for supremacy. Preference is for the former who has been ultra-consistent for Charlie Lister OBE and ran a superb race last week in the semi-finals of the All England after making a horror start that I used to have nightmares about before I found the sofa. Bubbly Phoenix is a desperately unfortunate colleague of mine to pick up the injuries he has done, as he demonstrated on Derby Final Night 2012 that he was more than capable of winning that illustrious race had he not made a horror start himself in the Semis that year. Therefore, the potential for both George and Phoenix to come out last should not be discounted, but if they both turn in front I think the added power of George these days will overhaul his talented adversary. Bridge Honcho is a top-class dog on his day but needs to show signs of a revival.
20:04 – Marathon
A strong looking line-up has created value in this race for one of the most powerful bitches around: Aayamzabella. She was bought to replace the roguish, ever-lovable Ayamzagirl for the connections and she is proving a top-class bitch to follow when drawn right. She needs the rails (so maybe to follow when she is drawn left, anyways…) so here she looks like she can assert on the inside and account for Incitatus (who could stay further than that human Haile Gebrselaisse) and the returning Storming Coco. Coco has built a reputation over her career around Sheffield but her lack of conviction at other tracks is a concern whereas Aaayamzabella should relish this galloping circuit where she can find room. Peggys Gift is a lively outsider having won on Sky before at a nice price, and she definitely seems to revel with the cameras on her as she cheekily puts her tongue out.
20:19 – Stayers
I know regular readers of the dog blog expect and anticipate in-depth, intuitive and insightful previews of each race and in keeping with that theme, I have two barks for this race: Fear Emoski.
20:34 – Angel of the North Final
Arguably the best bitches in the country line-up here and I for one will be on the edge of my sofa howling like a lunatic. Besides from my inevitable momentary lapse in being chilled out on the sofa, I expect this to be a fantastic race. Bridge Ruth deserves favouritism with her all-conquering displays but the same can be said for Butts Mott who bids for an incredible 10-timer this evening. With Akerview Gem being a local bitch in form this looks like a race with crowding at the first bend written all over it in paw prints. Butts Mott likes the rails and is drawn 4, Gem is fast-away and Ruth likes to come middle on the run-up so it is hard to envisage a clear run for the favourite. If she gets one she will be hard to beat or if Mott gets loose the same can be barked, but the value in this race is surely the ex-Irish raider Airforce Diva on the outside. Last year, Ruth and Diva came over from Ireland with very similar reputations although the latter was often stroppy about the state of her kennel pre-race. Diva has since been back to Ireland and regained her form that she lost on these shores before and in the process, she has the surely unique formline on her card of finishing 2nd with the comment: Never Showed. Whilst that was probably harsh by the human marking her movements, it does beg the question whether the other 4 runners behind her were all having a sniff on the grass around the hare rail. Anyways, Diva looks more settled in the UK this time with Lister and has the ability to sweep round the outside after following the dangerously fast-away Forest Trick, who is probably the overpriced runner on the card. Diva can beat her down the back straight, though.
20:49 – Great North Run Final
As many of the Lolly Faithful will know, I make no bones about my favourite colleague in training being Farloe Tango and I dearly hope he doesn’t show his brutal pace today. He is reluctantly overlooked with a superbly game bitch in Calzaghe Lilly who is one of the best staying marathon performers around. She pinged the traps in her Semi final and a repeat would be greeted with me barking at my Surhound Sound TV in excitement, but even if she does not come away as well, she can overhaul the gallant local Derrane Jake. Jake has been a great servant and is one of the locals that could cause a slight shock this evening but age is creeping up on him (I know the feeling) and he will have to be back to his scintillating best to hold Lilly this evening. Please don’t turn second Tango.
21:04 – Northern Puppy Derby Final
Here is the race that the Lolly Faithful could be dining style after as we go in with the superbly well-drawn Bubbly Charlie, who was our antepost selection for the tournament at 10/1. He will go off at slightly less than that tonight but us dogs don’t know what price we are and he can capitalise on any inside trouble: a hugely likely scenario. Swift Keith is a very fast young pup but has proven he is beatable, even when he leads, and whilst he will like trap 1 he will not want to see the powerhouse Redbrick Stuart come out with him. Droopys London, litter-brother to our selection, is undoubtedly pacey but has a poor draw to work from with Droopys Dave likely to be moving inwards from his berth in 4. Charlie is a game wide-runner who can loom large round the penultimate turn and prove too strong. That’s the plan, anyway!
21:19 – All England Cup Final
A fascinating conclusion to the “Northern Derby” here as the superb Pay Freeze lines up to make it double Category One successes in a row. The way he ran during the Steel City cup was breathtaking and his ability has further been proven with his sensational sectional in the first round of this tournament, and then his gusty win in the Semi-Final. He is worth taking on though. Whilst you may think I am barking mad, the price on Glenpadden Bolt makes him the value if you want to have an interest in the race. He took a nasty fall in the Steel City Cup final when 2/1 against the re-opposing Pay Freeze and the nature of his Semi-Final win last week means he can take this race and gain revenge. Freeze comes out of 1 well but he is not as scintillating out of the red box as the middle ones as a rule and if Bolt reproduces his Semi run, he will not be overtaken. Calzaghe Davy has a huge reputation but has yet to convince me that he is top class, however fast he may be, and he has burnt our paws on a couple of occassions when the Faithful have been on him. Airlie Impact is the gallant competition dog that is delighting connections but his win-ratio is starting to get concerning and therefore is one for forecasts and tricasts, rather than to win. It takes a brave dog or human to go against Pay Freeze, but that’s the type of hound I am.
So here are the recommendations:
Jumeirah Dubai (3 doggie treats @ 13/8)
Hather George (1 piece of bread @ 5/2)
Aayamzabella (1 dog bone @ 2/1)
Airforce Diva (1 chewstick @ 7/2)
Calzaghe Lilly (2 breasts of chicken @ 2/1)
There we go then, as ever if you have any comments please tweet me and I’ll get back to you as fast as Jumeirah Dubai is going to run the 2 bends tonight! The Lolly Faithful will be howling on with the countless Champagne Club members tonight and let’s hope Bubbly Charlie can have us popping the corks off some milk bottles tonight!