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St. Leger Antepost and First Round Thoughts

It must be barked that in all of my many dog years, this has to be the classiest and most intriguing St. Leger that I can remember! The field of my colleagues is truly breathtaking and I cannot remember a better one over the past 5 years! The competition winners in this tournament could create a trophy cabinet nearly as big as mine; the Derby Runner-Up is accompanied by the winners of the Regency, the Yorkshire St. Leger, Sunderland Grand Prix, Great North Run, TV Trophy, Kent St. Leger and the Golden Jacket (apologies to my colleagues if I have missed one). This mouthwatering competition is set to be a classic and before I look at the individual heats, I will give my thoughts on the value in the Antepost market for the Lolly Faithful.

The top of the market is very, very strong. My favourite colleague in training, Farloe Tango, just about holds market favouritism and that is fully justified as the famous human chant of “He Wins When He Wants” is in reference to this phenonemal dog. He simply has a different gear to any other hound in training (which he showed in his Great North Run win) and we know that he runs Wimbledon exceptionally well as he was an unlucky loser in the Derby Quarter-Final. He is reluctantly passed over as he normally does it the hard way (unless he fancies leading) and so will inevitably need luck in this 4 round tournament: ignore him at any stage of a race at your peril, even if he stops for a doggie treat in the restaurant. It is the far more logical conclusion to side with Fear Emoski who has left all in her wake since stepping up to six bends. The Regency and Yorkshire St. Leger winner has won 11 of her last 12 races and will take some beating as she has proven she can lead most fields with her decent 4 bend pace, and she can come behind if needs be: she is a winner. At 5/1, it proves the quality of this field and for such a consistent and admirable bitch, it is a price that cannot be ignored.

Musical Gaga is too short in the betting for me as whilst she is the undoubted queen of the marathon scene, she will probably be denied her normal early lead over this shorter trip and will need to find luck in running. She certainly did not get that luck in the Great North Run semi-final as she ran into all sorts of bother; there are so many contenders in this competition that she cannot afford to give them a start and a beating. Airlie Impact and Hather George both have stamina issues to answer over this trip, but their undoubted class and ability have them placed correctly in the market. Droopys Posh, Blonde Razor and Moody Paul are the newcomers to the staying scene and all of them are hugely respected due to their progressive profiles, but it is hard to envisage that they could get to the level of Fear Emoski this year.

One colleague of mine that has slipped under the radar and has definitely shown the form of Emoski is White Soks Roks. Many of the Lolly Faithful will be well aware of the fact that I mentor young Soks and he duly obliged for us in the Golden Jacket by winning for us at 20/1. His running action and superb early is a joy to watch and his power is capable of landing this competition. He has learnt to type with his paws like myself, and so he barks to me that he is fully fit and raring to go after some lukewarm performances in Ireland recently. It is always a tough task to compete in top quality races every time you run and put in your best performance (although it never bothered me) and losses for him to the likes of wonder-bitch Razldazl Marilyn in Ireland are excusable. Soks has been preparing for this tournament since his Golden Jacket success earlier in the year and. He can utilise his potentially useful draws as one of the few classy wide seeds in the competition to reach the final at least. His huge following from the Emerald Isle will no doubt be over to cheer him on from track-side and he likes to entertain the crowds with trap-to-line successes: he will not disappoint them or the Lolly Faithful, I am sure of that!

Heat 1 – 19:25

The Sunderland Grand Prix heroine Calzaghe Lilly is a warm-order but she can get boxed in all too often and so she will need to be on her toes here. My colleague Midway Nick is unexposed at the highest level but he does have a lovely draw to work from to steal a cheap lead and then show the pace that saw him finish just the 11 lengths behind Farloe Tango last time out: that is still quick believe me!

Heat 2 – 19:39

A fascinating contest here can show why Fear Emoski is going to be the bitch to beat in this tournament. Charlie Lister has three really classy competitors here in Emoski, Airforce Diva and Hather George and whoever wins this will deserve it! Airforce Diva managed the unique feat of hurdling a fellow competitor in her last race on Sky and she is a very talented Irish bitch, but it must be remembered that she has ran awfully around Wimbledon whenever she has been here before; 6 bends or no 6 bends, she does not like this circuit. Hather George is an admirable sort who always gives his all. Whilst he has proven at Sheffield that he stays 6 bends, this extra distance may perhaps find him out; if he does get the trip then he will give Emoski a real race.

Heat 3 – 19:54

So here he is. Farloe Tango. Will he drop to the back? Will he ping out and make-all? Will he stop half way around? Dog knows. One thing that I do know is that he has electric pace and he can win this if he wants to. Droopys Posh was a lovely puppy with a real gutsy attitude, but I think her size has meant she has struggled against her adult competitors and she will have to have her wits about her to move through a field; she is undoubtedly quick and gets the trip. Ballymac Cryan could run well at a huge price as the old boy is a credit to his connections.

Heat 4 – 20:10

Here we see the weakest of the heats but also the best value for a heat winner: Mollys Hope. She is often pitched in at the deep end and consistently produces solid enough efforts that when she is dropped back in class, she normally prevails. It really is a race there to be won and we fully Hope that she obliges.

Heat 5 – 20:26

This is an intriguing encounter because whilst Sidaz Dippy is perhaps the quickest in the field, she does struggle to win her races and cannot be considered at the price. The Kent St. Leger winner Aayamzalad is performing at the top of his game and whilst his lack of early will eventually be exposed against classier opponents, he can continue his good form and is a good price to demonstrate his decent middle pace.

Heat 6 – 20:42

It is perhaps to oft barked by me that Aayamzabella would prefer trap 0 but is is definitely a proven strategy to back her when she has her beloved rails, which she does here. The red box (or slow trappers inside when drawn middle) is imperative for her and this is what she has. She has set two track records in her last two runs (admittedly over marathon trips) and if she is given any sort of room, she will be very tough to peg back after she delivers her devastating early up the rails. The Derby Runner-Up Airlie Impact is an interesting entrant to the competition, but he has too many question marks over him for me. How much that Derby campaign actually took out of him is a huge negative and the fact that his connections have rightly or wrongly not stepped him up in trip before, must show that they have concerns that he will get the 6 bends: especially this long one! Bubbly Swallow always enjoys being in front of the cameras but has relinquished her lead to readily in recent times. Boherna Bridge will need to lead but his presence means that “I Am Beautiful” can follow him round and beat him.

Heat 7 – 20:58

Musical Gaga has made a mockery of the already ridiculous distance that is a marathon trip, and her stepping down to 6 bends is not really a massive concern here; it will be later in the tournament I feel. Blonde Razor is sharp over this trip and whilst he is hugely progressive, Gaga can pounce on any falterings in his stamina. Killieford Khali is one that always comes high, wide and not-so-handsome-as-me and can get into it if the two railers get involved in a duel.

Heat 8 – 21:15

White Soks Roks has told me from his kennel that he may need the run to bring on his fitness here, but it is still hard to get away from our hero. His sprint trial was hugely likeable and he can power into the first bend to give these a real test: a test I don’t think they can pass. Moody Paul is respected as he blasted clear of his rivals over a similar trip at Hove recently, but he was noticeably tiring in the dying strides and I think Soks can tire less than him and win this. It should be a great race!

So, here are the recommendations:

Mollys Hope – 2 doggie treats @ 11/4

Aayamzalad – 1 chewstick @ 9/2

Aayamzabella – 1 piece of bread @ 7/2

Antepost:

Fear Emoski – 1 doggie treat @ 5/1

White Soks Roks – 1 dog bone broken in half @ 25/1

There we are then! Those are my thoughts on this epic renewal of the 6-bend pinnacle of the year! As ever, please tweet me if you have any comments and myself or our hero @WhiteSoksRoks can bark back at you with a response! It should be a fascinating competition, but as the Lolly Faithful know all too well, you should Fear the Soks.

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Kent Derby and Grand National Finals + Sky Supporting Card Thoughts

A competitive and intriguing card awaits tonight from Sittingbourne with many of the races having a feel of throwing a dart at the card in the hope of finding the elusive answer to the conundrum. Yet, despite the exciting nature of the racing, the biggest scandal in racing since someone declared that I could not win at Wimbledon is upon us tonight, as the traps have been changed for the standard distance since the Semi-Finals of the Kent Derby. It is all a bit of a nonsense really as I could ping from any trap (including the aforementioned London track, once…) but there is definitely an easy excuse for connections to use if there beloved hound misses the break tonight. This is the type of card that I thrive on as although I barked it is like throwing a dart, I have the accuracy of that human Phil Taylor (and I am using my two front paws!). Here are my thoughts on the proceedings:

19:34 – Puppies

The youngsters kick us off and this looks a massive drop in class for Benkaat Boomer. He has a speedy newcomer inside of him but Boomer’s experience should mean he outclasses that rival and this field. Rumours that he is named after Brian Blessed are unfounded, but he certainly has the pace to flash out and then the only real danger looks in the form of Newinn Rock. Rosney’s “Newinn” runners are always to be respected but he will have to progress significantly to challenge Boomer who has the pace to make-all.

19:49 – Sprint

The clear highlight of the card sees a very competitive affair with the protagonists all matched on their formlines. A case could be made for Call Me Millie as she has the most solid form and will certainly take the beating if she pings out of her favoured trap 6, but she has a woeful draw to overcome. Kizi in trap 3 has genuine sprinting speed but moves off at the bend, and Precious Script is likely to follow him there as he is another looking to course the hare on the wide. If any of those gets a clear run they will take some beating but it is hard to envisage that and thus steps in one of the underrated performances from last week in front of the Sky cameras: Cape Impact. He nosed the camera last week to show his adoring fans that he was up for it and he ran a blinder behind the impressive local Farkland Impact. Farkland Impact had the noteworthy formline of beating my arch nemesis Lil Risky the week before which in houndsight, was a formline that should have been respected more. We can use that in our favour to show how well Cape Impact ran at Newcastle last week in finishing second; he can go one better today in a race that if he clears the enigmatic Comeragh King, is there for the taking.

20:04 – Stayers

Whilst these dogs run over an obscene distance, it is always an exciting time of the year on the eve of the St. Leger and we have 2 serious players in that tournament lining up here tonight. The step up in trip of Blonde Razor has worked the oracle for this recent expensive purchase (unbeaten over a short 6 bends) and he has shown he can go from the front or behind. He will definitely have his supporters but it is hard to ignore the likeability of the young Droopys Posh who caught Swift Keith as a puppy over a short 4 bend trip (an incredibly useful piece of form) and if she can transfer that pace over 6 bends against classier types than she faced on her staying bow, she will take the world of beating over this trip; odds of 10/1 will certainly disappear for the Leger if she does so. In an all-railer affair it is likely to be messy as the dog in 6, Westmead Bertie, is an extremely likeable canine friend of mine but he will be looking for the rail at the bend. Navarone was bought for similar money to Blonde Razor (reportedly 10,000 doggie treats for each), and whilst he has shown sporadic form in minor contests over a stayer’s trip, he lacks the scope these days of either Posh or Razor. Posh could turn into something special over 6 bends and has the opportunity here to demonstrate that.

20:19 – Standard

This is a tough race to call as Aero Tobias and Lode Esteem have similar profiles for me. On his day, Tobias has a different level of pace to Esteem though, and he is fancied here to at least follow that rival round and beat him for overall speed. The interesting runner of the race, Right Touch, has been declared a N/R with the reserve (Born to Survive) being a mid-to-wide sort, further enhancing the chances of Tobias and Esteem. Each of them are normally thrown in the deep-end and whilst us greyhounds can swim, they struggle in quality company; they do not face that here and Tobias can win the match-race.

20:34 – Marathon

This is one of those races where I nearly fell off my sofa when I saw the price of one of the runners. Aayamzabella from her favoured red box, with no early pace in trap 2, after demolishing her rivals when getting the rails last week at Newcastle, is a simple must-bet for those that like to eat doggie treats. Balance Sheet is bred for this absurd distance but Aayamzabella is one of the best marathon runners in the country when she is given an inside draw and whilst she would arguably prefer trap 0, she will have to make do with 1 today and she can fully utilise that. Freedom Cache has pace but is a dog without a distance and this will be stretching his capabilities, particularly against the gallant pace of the self-proclaimed “I Am Beautiful”.

20:49 – Super Standard

Whilst this race has an air of arrogance about it due to it’s title, the standard of it is not that spectacular and it will not take much winning. Hollyoak Oliver has been a precocious boy over the past few weeks but with the slow, middle-moving Glanmire Jet next to him, he can dominate the inside and win this. Frettenham Flyer always churns out a good effort but often milks it when running against classy opposition and Oliver has a tinge of class, albeit often too fleetingly. My colleagues do not want to see Glanmire Jet turn at the first bend anywhere near them.

21:09 – Grand National Final

A stellar cast of hurdlers lines up for the less-gruelling version of a Horse’s toughest test, and the ever-enigmatic Droopys Lorenzo will as ever, be hard to beat if he doesn’t fall. His jumping style leaves a lot to be desired but the hurdles at Sittingbourne are not that hard to negotiate and he can show his brute pace to claim this. Westmead Meteor, the Springbox winner, will need no invitation as he is probably the classiest jumper in the country and can pounce on any mistakes from Lorenzo. It would be wrong to read too much into Lorenzo’s missed break last week as the hare was nearly around the first bend by the time the traps opened (hence the changing of the traps for tonight, it all makes sense now…), and he is normally a pretty reliable trapper. Ricky Holloway is bidding for a unique treble if Meteor can oblige for him but he trains his hurdlers to jump over proper sticks, which these are not quite. Mo Realta Frank is seriously well-drawn with the ever-likeable but sofa-yearning Melanie drawn next to him and he will be a threat if the market leaders make a hash of their jumping.

21:19 – Kent Derby Final

If there is one dog that could be hindered by the change of traps, we will see it in this race as Exocet bids to ping for the third time in succession and make-all. The miraculous healer that is Exocet, who infamously withdrew from the Sussex Cup lame (when favourite after the first round) to appear three days later across the water for the Irish Derby, is undoubtedly as talented on the track as his powers of recovery are off it. The Irish Derby Semi-Finalist will surely not be picked up if he leads: that “if” should probably be a “when”. All things considered however, Droopys Odell could give any dog a run when he secures his rails berth and he has a potentially good draw to claim his beloved rails. I bark potentially because Bridge Bandit on his immediate inner is a course-and-distance specialist and can ping out, but if Odell can lead him, he can give Exocet a race and is more than worth taking a chance on at 4/1. Odell won from a horror draw in 4 in the Semi-Final (some would argue he was lucky in-running but connections must have been happy that he qualified from that draw, let alone win) and he is a serious powerhouse on the rails. Droopys Danneel has a good draw out wide but Odell has more pace for me and Islas Scolari will do his normal race of running on when it is unfortunately, all too late in this class.

Here are the recommendations then:

Cape Impact – 1 doggie treat @ 5/1

Aero Tobias – 1 piece of bread @ 5/2

Aayamzabella – 1 chewstick @ 4/5

Droopys Odell – 1 breast of chicken @ 4/1

So there are my thoughts on the card, as ever please tweet or comment and I promise to respond faster than it takes Exocet to recover from lameness! There is no doubting that if he leads he will be seriously tough to beat, but I would not want Odell turning behind me and he can be another love for the Lolly Faithful tonight.

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All England Cup Final and Supporting Sky Card Thoughts

What a night we have in store for us as the most competitive racing since Derby Final night sees some of my finest colleagues running around Newcastle. Whilst my excitement is building, it is impossible to forget last year’s meeting that will be forever known in the Lolly Household as Tumbleweed Tuesday as local runners at big prices dominated the card: my local Geordie colleagues should be respected tonight, I’m shore of that. Due to the competitive nature of the racing and the quality racing surface, there is definitely value to be had and that is what I have found for the Lolly Faithful. Here are my thoughts on the proceedings:

19:34 – Sprint

Everyone’s favourite distance kicks off the night and a sprinter that definitely would have at least been able to see me at some point in a race should be backed here: Jumeirah Dubai. He exploded onto the scene last year on supporting cards to the Scottish Derby and built up an impressive reputation. Whilst he has been changed to a Wide seed which is of some concern, it has given him a great draw to work from out wide as there is a great possibility for inside scrimmaging here. Farkland Tyson is one of those pesky local runners that could sprint a surprise but the main impact of him on this race is probably to hold the quirky, but always dangerous, Mill Bullseye. Bullseye arguably prefers it round his Mackem homeland than at other tracks but he undoubtedly has pace. He is outclassed by Dubai, however.

19:49 – Standard

Droopys Pride took a nasty fall in the All England cup when fancied and is not ideally placed in trap 3 for this rails-loving colleague of mine. He has pace but does not have the profile of Hather George or Bubbly Phoenix who are expected to have a fierce battle down the far side for supremacy. Preference is for the former who has been ultra-consistent for Charlie Lister OBE and ran a superb race last week in the semi-finals of the All England after making a horror start that I used to have nightmares about before I found the sofa. Bubbly Phoenix is a desperately unfortunate colleague of mine to pick up the injuries he has done, as he demonstrated on Derby Final Night 2012 that he was more than capable of winning that illustrious race had he not made a horror start himself in the Semis that year. Therefore, the potential for both George and Phoenix to come out last should not be discounted, but if they both turn in front I think the added power of George these days will overhaul his talented adversary. Bridge Honcho is a top-class dog on his day but needs to show signs of a revival.

20:04 – Marathon

A strong looking line-up has created value in this race for one of the most powerful bitches around: Aayamzabella. She was bought to replace the roguish, ever-lovable Ayamzagirl for the connections and she is proving a top-class bitch to follow when drawn right. She needs the rails (so maybe to follow when she is drawn left, anyways…) so here she looks like she can assert on the inside and account for Incitatus (who could stay further than that human Haile Gebrselaisse) and the returning Storming Coco. Coco has built a reputation over her career around Sheffield but her lack of conviction at other tracks is a concern whereas Aaayamzabella should relish this galloping circuit where she can find room. Peggys Gift is a lively outsider having won on Sky before at a nice price, and she definitely seems to revel with the cameras on her as she cheekily puts her tongue out.

20:19 – Stayers

I know regular readers of the dog blog expect and anticipate in-depth, intuitive and insightful previews of each race and in keeping with that theme, I have two barks for this race: Fear Emoski.

20:34 – Angel of the North Final

Arguably the best bitches in the country line-up here and I for one will be on the edge of my sofa howling like a lunatic. Besides from my inevitable momentary lapse in being chilled out on the sofa, I expect this to be a fantastic race. Bridge Ruth deserves favouritism with her all-conquering displays but the same can be said for Butts Mott who bids for an incredible 10-timer this evening. With Akerview Gem being a local bitch in form this looks like a race with crowding at the first bend written all over it in paw prints. Butts Mott likes the rails and is drawn 4, Gem is fast-away and Ruth likes to come middle on the run-up so it is hard to envisage a clear run for the favourite. If she gets one she will be hard to beat or if Mott gets loose the same can be barked, but the value in this race is surely the ex-Irish raider Airforce Diva on the outside. Last year, Ruth and Diva came over from Ireland with very similar reputations although the latter was often stroppy about the state of her kennel pre-race. Diva has since been back to Ireland and regained her form that she lost on these shores before and in the process, she has the surely unique formline on her card of finishing 2nd with the comment: Never Showed. Whilst that was probably harsh by the human marking her movements, it does beg the question whether the other 4 runners behind her were all having a sniff on the grass around the hare rail. Anyways, Diva looks more settled in the UK this time with Lister and has the ability to sweep round the outside after following the dangerously fast-away Forest Trick, who is probably the overpriced runner on the card. Diva can beat her down the back straight, though.

20:49 – Great North Run Final

As many of the Lolly Faithful will know, I make no bones about my favourite colleague in training being Farloe Tango and I dearly hope he doesn’t show his brutal pace today. He is reluctantly overlooked with a superbly game bitch in Calzaghe Lilly who is one of the best staying marathon performers around. She pinged the traps in her Semi final and a repeat would be greeted with me barking at my Surhound Sound TV in excitement, but even if she does not come away as well, she can overhaul the gallant local Derrane Jake. Jake has been a great servant and is one of the locals that could cause a slight shock this evening but age is creeping up on him (I know the feeling) and he will have to be back to his scintillating best to hold Lilly this evening. Please don’t turn second Tango.

21:04 – Northern Puppy Derby Final

Here is the race that the Lolly Faithful could be dining style after as we go in with the superbly well-drawn Bubbly Charlie, who was our antepost selection for the tournament at 10/1. He will go off at slightly less than that tonight but us dogs don’t know what price we are and he can capitalise on any inside trouble: a hugely likely scenario. Swift Keith is a very fast young pup but has proven he is beatable, even when he leads, and whilst he will like trap 1 he will not want to see the powerhouse Redbrick Stuart come out with him. Droopys London, litter-brother to our selection, is undoubtedly pacey but has a poor draw to work from with Droopys Dave likely to be moving inwards from his berth in 4. Charlie is a game wide-runner who can loom large round the penultimate turn and prove too strong. That’s the plan, anyway!

21:19 – All England Cup Final

A fascinating conclusion to the “Northern Derby” here as the superb Pay Freeze lines up to make it double Category One successes in a row. The way he ran during the Steel City cup was breathtaking and his ability has further been proven with his sensational sectional in the first round of this tournament, and then his gusty win in the Semi-Final. He is worth taking on though. Whilst you may think I am barking mad, the price on Glenpadden Bolt makes him the value if you want to have an interest in the race. He took a nasty fall in the Steel City Cup final when 2/1 against the re-opposing Pay Freeze and the nature of his Semi-Final win last week means he can take this race and gain revenge. Freeze comes out of 1 well but he is not as scintillating out of the red box as the middle ones as a rule and if Bolt reproduces his Semi run, he will not be overtaken. Calzaghe Davy has a huge reputation but has yet to convince me that he is top class, however fast he may be, and he has burnt our paws on a couple of occassions when the Faithful have been on him. Airlie Impact is the gallant competition dog that is delighting connections but his win-ratio is starting to get concerning and therefore is one for forecasts and tricasts, rather than to win. It takes a brave dog or human to go against Pay Freeze, but that’s the type of hound I am.

So here are the recommendations:

Jumeirah Dubai (3 doggie treats @ 13/8)

Hather George (1 piece of bread @ 5/2)

Aayamzabella (1 dog bone @ 2/1)

Airforce Diva (1 chewstick @ 7/2)

Calzaghe Lilly (2 breasts of chicken @ 2/1)

There we go then, as ever if you have any comments please tweet me and I’ll get back to you as fast as Jumeirah Dubai is going to run the 2 bends tonight! The Lolly Faithful will be howling on with the countless Champagne Club members tonight and let’s hope Bubbly Charlie can have us popping the corks off some milk bottles tonight!