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Steel City Cup – Antepost Thoughts

This Category One tournament is often dominated by the strong Northern kennels and in particular local trainers, which has to be taken into account when assessing the value antepost. I think this year’s competition is fascinating from a value perspective and the Lolly Faithful have several reasons to be confident that we can earn some doggie treats from this renewal; intriguingly only two qualify from each heat and so the fact that Express Master and Loughteen Blanco (who lead the betting) are drawn together with unfavourable draws for both give us a huge advantage antepost. The local dogs are also underrated historically in this tournament as the track stalwart of yesteryear, Skywalker Louie, produced an epic performance to overtake the much-maligned Boher Paddy last year at a huge 10/1, which when I paws for thought, was too dismissive of such a course specialist. We will not make the same mistake this year: I am positively wagging for this tournament!

Express Master was desperately unlucky for us in the Sussex Cup as he met a rejuvenated Loughteen Blanco in the final, who reproduced his sparkling form from last year to deny us an antepost doggie treat bonanza. Ironically, it was Blanco who had lost for us the previous year with an oh-so agonising defeat and so I am still licking my wounds (and occassionally sensitive areas when I get bored) for those defeats. With that barked, I am an admirer of both of these early-paced merchants and they will be a live threat in this tournament if they qualify tonight, and judging by the way Master was running all over Blanco on the rails-side in the Sussex Cup final, these two could be their own worst nightmare this evening: there is no value in them antepost based on that.

Therefore, that creates value in the rest of the market. Whilst Glenpadden Bolt produced a career best last week and an action replay of that three times will go very close, he has yet to prove his consistency so is plenty short enough around 10/1. Airlie Impact is a much travelled campaigner these days considering his entirely Hove-based antics in the early part of his career, and whilst he has proven he is not a one-track-wonder, and surely delighted connections with his Derby Silver Medal (a fantastic achievement), it is a hard campaign in the English Derby and it might take him just slightly longer to fully regain his appetite for the hare. Any sort of niggle or tiredness in Impact will be exposed by the local stalwarts. Calzaghe Davy was another consideration, but his lacklustre performance at Sunderland last time out is hard to get out of my mind. Whilst I normally like dreaming about chasing squirrels and eating the world’s largest bowl of cooked chicken, it is hard to not still have nightmares about his jog around the back in front of the Sky cameras. Maybe he got camera shy or maybe he lacks the necessary quality to compete at the top level: he is certainly a fast dog around Coventry but elsewhere he is best watched for now.

Which leaves us with the first of our two nominations to have the metal to take the Steel City cup. Elaine Parker, as ever, has a strong team for her home tournament and she can look for a sensational double with the new superstar of her kennel, Pay Freeze, showing why he should be antepost favourite for this tournament in my opinion. 6 out of 7 wins at his home track is not telling the whole story as he has beaten some high-class colleagues round the Sheffield circuit and he has all of the attributes of pace, desire and trackcraft to step up his already lofty reputation by winning a Category One tournament. His draw in the heats has worked out favourably as there is little pace inside him so he can poach an early lead from his poorly drawn railing kennelmate, Droopys Pride, and demonstrate his raw pace around his most familiar workplace: home advantage is huge for him in this tournament.

The same case can be made for Kowloon Conner who is extremely hard to beat around this Course and Distance and it is about time that the Draper kennel had a change of fortune with their superstars: Conner is one of them. He has less of a reputation than some of his kennelmates but that should not consitute in dismissing him as a serious performer and it takes a good dog to beat him round Sheffield. He has drawn a simple assignment for his heat where he can lead the ever-consistent Hather George, yet that rival is starting to look more at the sofa that I am now lying on than the track and perhaps enjoyed his Swan Song in the Derby, where he was extremely valiant. Whilst he was tipped elsewhere at 20/1, I missed the price as I was having a nap on the chair I’m not supposed to go on. Although that nap was delightful, I am now ruing the decision. Despite that momentarily lapse on my part, he is still worth backing at 16/1 as he will match any of the dogs in this tournament for pace to the first bend and that is when we will see his underrated class come through: a tinge of class that he certainly demonstrates at Sheffield.

So here are the recommendations for the Lolly Faithful:

Pay Freeze – 1 piece of bread broken in half @ 12/1

Kowloon Conner – 1 chewstick ripped in two @ 16/1

After some near misses for these antepost bets (albeit with nice each-way doggie treats collected) it is time for the Lolly Faithful to steel a winner in a Category One tournament: these local heroes can do that for us.

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