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The Derby – Antepost Thoughts

So here we are, the Derby begins tomorrow! I’m nearly as excited as when I see a squirrel on my walk and I’m trying to contain my excitement enough to assemble a team to enter the Derby with for the Lolly Faithful. The presence of Ballymac Eske at the head of the market is a justified position but despite the drift to 10/1 recently (perhaps due to his draw in the First Round) he is still making the market for those looking for value propositions: that is the name of the game for me! He is undoubtedly a superstar but there are still negatives surrounding him to not justify him to be as short as he is and connections must have despaired at his draw on Friday.

Of course, he could ping out in sensational fashion as he has been doing of late and stamp his authority on Heat 6, but if he does not, then it will be a fascinating race. The fact he has only truly pinged out of the Wimbledon boxes once, albeit in his last supreme performance in the Juvenile, suggests he may just miss the break at the Plough Lane circuit. Garryglass Rodge on his immediate outside has shown in the Golden Sprint and numerous races before that when he is drawn any wider than 1, he will dart inside at traps rise: that could put Eske in a world of trouble. This is accompanied with the presence of one of the few dogs that the Draper kennel would not have liked to see drawn next to their superstar in Round One, Farloe Tango, lining up next to him in red. Tango has had his problems and quirks but he showed tremendous spirit to overhaul Eske over the Course and Distance last year and if he fancies it, he will prove a match for Eske. This is Round One we are talking about! This is furthered by Isabels Boy having a very good draw for him in 6 and the Irish speed merchant may be away and gone. Bridge Honcho is likely to follow Boy round and then could we be looking at the possibility of Eske being bumped and coming fifth? Many will think I am barking mad but it is not a scenario I would like my 10/1 shot in a 6 round Derby to be facing in the First Round! He is making the market.

Of the others towards the fore of the market, it is dominated by my Irish colleagues who have been enticed by the 150,000 treats on offer, which is enough for any greyhound for at least one year’s supply. Ballymac Vic is a superstar in his own right and in the clear is devastatingly fast, but his career is a tale of woe in terms of claiming silverware and he has the air of Razldazl Jayfkay about him; capable of breaking any track record anywhere at any given time, but supporters need to hold their breath at traps rise every round. I certainly won’t be one of those! Kereight King is an exciting prospect and has his supporters after some convincing performances yet his price is more than reflective of his achievements and whilst it is hard to see him not going a very long way, there is better value further down. Droopys Jet was a Semi-Finalist last year after clearly angering the Dogs with some truly horrendous draws, yet his efforts in Ireland as a pinging early-paced railer turned into scrappy grinding performances at Plough Lane. I cannot help but feel he just does not understand the boxes on these shores: 16/1 is plenty short enough.

Eden Star is interesting as he showed his liking for Wimbledon last year in the First Round when destroying his rivals for early, middle and late pace but picked up an injury from his exertions that night and it is difficult to come up with a convincing case that he can last all 6 rounds. If he makes it to the final it will take a very good colleague to beat him. Priceless Sky is a likeable sort but that is more than factored into his price and it’s hard to make a case for him on value grounds at 25/1. Further down notable entries are Garryglass Rodge’s best mate Tyrur Sugar Ray as they would both prefer to be in trap 0. The early-paced Money Talks (who missed the break in his trial stakes which is a concern), the strong Screen Critic and the sprinting pace of Knockglass Billy all have a chance too. They all have pace and claims but I am happy to take them on with my team, assembled on behalf of the Lolly Faithful. Here they are:

Shaneboy Alley – 1 doggie treat e/w @ 20/1

The Arc winner has looked every part a Derby contender since he came over from Ireland and catered for a strong Arc field with a track-record performance in the Semi-Finals. He has everything for Wimbledon: early, determination and staying power for the long run-in. Being seeded Wide is a huge benefit this year in my opinion, too, as their is a lack of top quality wides and so he should be treated to favourable draws throughout. He also has shown he can come out of traps 5 or 6 (which was Bubbly Phoenix’s undoing last year) and actually pinged like yours truly out of 5 during that campaign at Swindon: that performance put him firmly in this Derby frame. In Ireland he led Skywalker Puma (the Irish Derby champion) for effectively 480m before being overhauled for the extra yards at Shelbourne and that is a form-line that speaks volumes of this dog’s ability over this trip. He also beat Golden Wonder recently in a trial over the Course and Distance convincingly and Wonder with a clear run is arguably one of the fastest puppies in training. Alley has the credentials and the likelihood of favourable draws through all of the rounds to back him to win this most prestigious of tournaments.

Isabels Boy – 1 doggie treat e/w @ 25/1

This Irish early-paced merchant is drawn in the heat of death, 6, but can lay down a serious marker by surging round the outside and at least coming second to Eske if Draper’s charge pings. His form in Ireland barks volumes about him being a competition sort with 10 wins and 11 seconds and his electric early can see him avoid trouble through the tournament. He was beaten by the rapid Razldazl Luke (who is now sunning himself in Australia) and Camas (who is stuck in less favourable weather in Ireland, although he is breeding so every cloud…) in respective races by a short-head which shows that this dog can run. This is furthered by the ultra-impressive form-line of beating Paradise Madison 2 weeks before Madison set an astonishing track-record at Shelbourne and thus the form is gaining momentum that this dog can go the distance in this tournament. He is trained by Matt Dartnall who knows how to get a dog into a final of this competition with his training performance of Derby favourite, Farloe Ironman, last year being admirable. Boy has been trialling well and can build his stamina as the competition grows and the fact he is a middle seed, with the aforementioned lack of wides, should mean he is drawn in at least 4 for the majority of the tournament. With so many rail-seeking early-paced pingers in this year’s Derby, it will almost certainly be a better place to be drawn wide of the potential chaos for the rails lovers.

Farloe Warhawk – 1 chewstick e/w @ 33/1

Following a sensational campaign as a puppy last year, Warhawk was at the head of the antepost market for a considerable time. Since then, he started the year disappointingly and has drifted dramatically yet this drift is far too much for a dog that has just set the track-record at Coventry. He won 10 of his first 11 starts including an all-the-way, gritty success against Eske in the Puppy Derby over the Course and Distance and he has the prerequisites for a Wimbledon dog in abundance. Superb early accompanied with determination at the bends means this dog can go a long way and make a mockery of the doubters who are over-reacting to his Winter form. The Summer is back now (or so the calendar tells me as I look outside from my sofa) and Warhawk has proven he can do it the hard way too by winning the Laurels from behind against some very useful sorts. He is drawn on the inside of the rails-diving Holborn Junior so should fend him off and then exert his authority down the back straight and demonstrate his credentials.

Lemon Pluto – 1/2 a piece of bread e/w @ 33/1

Another Wimbledon-suited greyhound for the Lolly Faithful here who has the credentials to go a long way. He showed his liking for Plough Lane by winning his trial stakes in authoritative fashion and provided he doesn’t have any mishaps at the traps, can go a long way in the tournament. He is drawn in a relatively tough heat with the very quick Tyrur Sugar Ray and Ringtown Snowy, with the latter turning over the former at odds-on in the Ladbrokes 600 at Shelbourne recently. It was indeed a surprise to see Sugar Ray come for this Derby and his suitability for Wimbledon is a huge question mark. It could be moreso when Pluto is away-and-gone from him in Heat 12. The doubt over Pluto is that he lost the Northern Puppy Derby to the undoubtedly strong Teejays Bluehawk, but it was disappointing to see Pluto give up his lead over 480m to a dog destined for great achievements over further. Indeed, I might be made to regret my bark there but if Bluehawk wins the Derby I will give up my sofa back to my owners. On second thoughts, I just do not think he will win so I will leave it at that.

Holdem Spy – 1 chocolate drop e/w @ 80/1

This enigmatic fellow has been delighting the crowds at Coventry with an unbelievable turn of foot as he swoops round the outside to pick off his fellow competitors. The doubt of whether he is chasing the hare to his full ability or showboating for his adoring following is a question that we will almost certainly find out the answer to during this tournament, but if he is running with his full concentration he is not an 80/1 shot: nowhere near it! It has been more than factored into his odds the fact that he may have other ideas about the game and now he has had a change of scenery and change of track could bring the best out of my colleague. He has the pace to win the Derby.

Judicial Ruling – 1/2 sausage e/w @ 100/1

My tongue has fallen out of my mouth several times about this chap for different reasons. Not seen since the final last year, I thought he had retired for a life watching Pets Do the Funniest Things on his sofa but no, he is back! He is 100/1! An incredible price for a dog who would have arguably been sent off favourite for the Derby final last year barring a very late plunge on Farloe Ironman; he has also surely been targeted for this tournament for a year by connections. Because of his absence he is lightly raced for a 4 year old and the fact he sustained an injury in the Second Round last year and continued to produce superb performances shows his durability for the 6 rounds is there and it will take a good dog to knock him out. Of course, the question is whether he is the same fellow that we saw last year come out of nowhere to reach the final, but if he is 3/4 of that dog from last year he will make odds of 100/1 look very wide of the mark. Let’s see what he has got!

Farloe Tango – 1 doggie treat @ 25/1 (Already Advised)

The Lolly Faithful have been on Tango for a while as we have then watched his antics with astonishment and bewilderment. He may stop at any time if he feels like it. He may jog round the back like I jog in the park (actually I would overtake dogs if I was jogging but you know what I mean!). He may not bother to even get in the traps. Yet, he has shown that when he focuses his talent and ability is superb and if anyone can get him right for a Derby, it is Mr Lister OBE.

So there are my thoughts on the Derby. It is with regret that I cannot go into more detail about why I have left out other contenders who have a chance but I do not perceive them as value. My paws are beginning to get tired as well and I have heard the lead being rustled so I’m going for a walk! As ever please comment or tweet if you have anything to say and I will bark back in my usual fashion! If I had to pick one dog to win the Derby: Farloe Warhawk.

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