A class assembly of my colleagues line up for the Regency final tonight and I hope they like their paws getting wet! It has been raining constantly on the South Coast today and it may be a question of finding the dogs that have the best doggie paddle to win the races at Hove this evening. It is worth holding back to see how the track is running before dispensing of any of your hard-earned doggie treats but as this is a preview so I have no such luxury. I would definitely be favouring an outside strong sort most of the time in these conditions over a pacey railer. So here are my thoughts for the action provided by my fellow hounds:
19:34 – Hurdles
Lenson Johnny has been highly thought-of since making his transition to the obstacles but he has yet to live up to his billing. He was second favourite for the Springbok earlier in the year and failed to make any sort of significant impact in that competition for novice hurdlers: he is best avoided. Baran Bally Hi has been a class act throughout his career on these shores and the Emerald Isle and can let his class tell tonight. He is normally slow from the start but is a nice jumper and can swoop round the outside of this field to win this. Green Amigo finally gave his relentless backers some respite at Sheffield last week but he has a terrible draw to work from now, which accompanied by his disappointing efforts in previous outings means that he is hard to fancy.
19:49 – Sprint
The market may have overreacted to Droopys Quincy’s devastating display of pace last week on the card before the cameras began to roll. He has his chance in the limelight tonight and the bark around the kennels is that he is not camera-shy so a repeat performance of pace is possible. He went quicker than Farloe Barracuda to set new figures at Sheffield and considering the opposition Barracuda had behind him, Quincy has a great line of form on his card now. Another, however, who has an impressive CV is Billymatt who would not be a 9/2 shot around his beloved Romford. He is a class act in Essex and whilst the draw in 4 is far from ideal as he prefers the stripes, he is too big to power to the bend and remind Quincy of his puppy status. Helenas Sailor has form around the Course and Distance but lacks the consistency and perhaps pace of Billymatt and the Romford raider can show why he is feared by layers on Friday nights.
20:04 – Puppies
The Gymcrack runner-up Droopys Odell takes a significant drop in class, has his favourite trap and the mid-moving Blonde Razor on his immediate outside. Just when you’re thinking I’m going to put an entire year’s supply of Pedigree Chewstix on him though, he has been known to miss the break and whilst he could surge to the front, at cramped odds he is best watched. He will most likely win this in style.
20:19 – Marathon
The figures that Ballymac Swift has been producing over the last month are quite simply staggering and whilst I’ve never been good at Maths, as they didn’t teach me it when I was being schooled, all of these track record displays are hard to ignore. Yet this is an odds game and Michaels Gift has slipped under the radar here. She finished ahead of Swift in the Ted Hegarty in Ireland and ran creditably in the Regency. She now steps up to her optimum distance and this is a long marathon so Swift will have to be careful not to put too much effort into the early exchanges. This is especially relevant as she will likely be joined by Bubbly Capel for the first 6 bends and whilst those two race each other out in front, Gift can turn handy from a good draw and use all of her stamina in the dying strides. Black Lamora is a huge danger if anywhere near at the 7th bend as she will be staying on, arguably forever.
20:34 – Bitches
It’s turning into a night that if the short-priced favourites oblige, the Lolly household will be treatless for a considerable period which will mean constant howling in disgust. Yet, I believe Bridge Ruth is too short here and I am going to take her on (I’d also like to take her out but that’s a different story). She can be poor from traps 5 and 6 (she has lost 4 from the wide boxes) and she seems to be a bitch that likes to have things her own way (on second thoughts, she’s becoming less appealing) and so she is too short at 4/6. If she leads it will be all over bar the barking but a bitch with a great draw and a much more appealing price is Jaytee Jules. She ran well in the Monmore Spring Festival Bitches and is the litter-sister of serious Derby contender Jaytee Hellcat. Therefore, she may be open to improvement and she has the early to turn prominent, perhaps in the lead if Ruth does indeed miss the break, and she can outrun odds of 12/1 on the bunny. Vivendi Blue is stepping up in class but has pace, whilst Sharies Miller has never seemed to take to the Hove circuit. Jules is the bark for me.
20:49 – Stayers
Sometimes a dog can be over-hyped and we have a definite contender for that in Bouncy Bocko. The poor dog has yet to run over 6 bends but is apparently the contender to be the greatest 6-bend dog of all time (OK, perhaps not that hyped up but you know what I mean!). He was subject to a huge gamble in the 3 Steps to Victory but failed to impress over his now apparently inadequate trip and until I see it with my own eyes, I am going to take him on. Holbeins Champ has class 6-bend form and ran really well in the first round of the Regency. He also has a great looking draw with the 3 inside dogs lacking any sort of real early. Of the three inside dogs the danger is Eden Rumble who has the second best name of a dog that I have heard in Gavin, and Gavin is a danger if he turns menacingly. I think Champ will be away-and-gone though and the potential superstar that is Bouncy Bocko will have a real race on his paws and not just a show of good pace to the pickup.
21:04 – Standard
The undoubted superstar of the extended 4-bend trip round Hove is Airlie Impact and he can win this. Whilst his draw in trap 4 looks poor on the surface, it is not that bad as Droopys Ed Moses must have been playing on his dog mobile in the traps last week and Islas Scolari has very little early. Impact dislikes other tracks but here he will be able to use his devastating back-straight pace to win a race that is lacking in depth.
21:19 – Regency Final
Providing the sand hasn’t been washed away by this point, the Lolly Faithful will be barking for Fear Emoski who we are on at 7/2 antepost. In my dog blog for the competition (which can be found in full here: http://is.gd/Y6zbx7) I suggested that in her heat Emoski “can progress to the tougher challenges ahead in the Semis and Final; which I believe she will cope with consummate ease” and that statement is what I stand by: I think she will win this final with “consummate ease”. She has been fortunate with her draw and it will take a ridiculous bias towards the outside or for her to uncharacteristically miss the break altogether for her not to show her supreme middle and put these to the sword. Musical Gaga is in the form of her life, as is the well-drawn Ayamzabeauty who ran a huge race to qualify in the Semis, but neither have the style, grace and power of Emoski and she can demonstrate all three of those attributes tonight. Bubbly Swallow will need to fly from the boxes to be in the mix.
So here are the recommendations for the Lolly Faithful:
19:49: Billymatt – 1 doggie treat @ 9/2
20:49: Holbeins Champ – 2 pieces of bread at 11/4
21:04: Airlie Impact – 1 chewstick @ 13/8
So there are a dog’s thoughts on the proceedings and as ever, please tweet or comment if you have any thoughts yourself. I’ll promise to bark back at you but I’m going on my walk now and am fortunate enough to own a nice leather jacket so I won’t get too wet, and I’ll look fashionable at the same time. My colleagues will be getting wet this evening though and it will most likely be in vain in the Regency as Emoski is a fearful prospect.