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Greyhound Derby – Friday’s First Round Heats

After the conundrum of the antepost markets and selecting Team Lolly to do battle in this year’s Derby, the attention turns towards the first round heats. Finding the value is tough in the early rounds as the main protagonists are often trained to be brought on later in the competition, with connections hoping they can merely qualify from the First Round and progress from there. Therefore it is imperative to find which of my colleagues are raring to go today and then the value can be found there. Here are my thoughts on the first night’s racing:

Heat 1 – 19:25

Kereight King comes with a lofty reputation from Ireland and a skinny antepost price. He has a good draw to work from here with dual Category One winner, Mags Gamble, preferring a mid-course and so King can assert and demonstrate he is a contender for this illustrious crown. Airlie Impact posted a good trial but is not well-boxed in 5 as he will be looking for the restaurant at the first bend and despite a flashy trial, it is hard to envisage him being up to his impressive Hove form.

Heat 2 – 19:39

Two of the powerhouses line-up in this heat and it looks to me as though Screen Critic has a good enough draw to overhaul the fast-out Farloe Calvin. Aero Tobias has pace but the two who dominate the market could be long gone.

Heat 3 – 19:54

Knockglass Billy is a top-class sprinter from Ireland and has a lovely draw to utilise his early-pace and gallop clear hear. Ayamzaman has early but struggles when he is not at his beloved Romford and will definitely be gasping for air over this 480m trip. He will be looking to move mid-to-wide too and could hinder Laughil George enough for Billy to skip clear. Islas Scolari is powerful but leaves himself far too much to do on too many occassions to warrant support this time.

Heat 4 – 20:10

Eden Star’s infamous devastating pace was on full-display last year in the First Round and the bookmakers seemed to have remembered that quotes of Evens for the First Round last year were misguided: he is too powerful for weaker opposition. Whilst Bubbly Lucky is running well, he will lack the early of Star and could also be hindered by the impressive bitch Silverview Pinky on his inside. Bouncy Bocko looks like he needs 8 bends on his recent form and whilst he is a surprise inclusion, he is unlikely to be anywhere near Star at any point in the race.

Heat 5 – 20:26

An intriguing contest with only 3 qualifying being unfortunate for connections as a few of these have a chance to progress a considerable way in the tournament. Paradise Martini came from Ireland with a big reputation and has ran well up North but he meets track specialist Jolly Bullseye who is likely to be fully-fired up for this. Teejays Bluehawk should always be feared due to his strength but he is bereft of significant early and that should give Bullseye the room to assert ahead of Martini and make-all. Sidaz Jack is an interesting entrant for Lister and whilst he can progress in the tournament, it is hard to back him with confidence in his first race on these shores, especially in this competitive affair. Zoos Caprice is on fire at her local track but will need a career best effort to live with these.

Heat 6 – 20:42

The heat of the first round sees antepost favourite Ballymac Eske with a terrible draw. Of course, he may have the class to prevail and make a mockery of the doubters but this is a value game and he has to be taken on in this race due to the presence of one of his few losses, Farloe Tango, inside of him and the daunting presence of the hugely rails biased Garryglass Rodge on his outside. It is nervous times for connections and whilst there could be chaos on the inside, Isabels Boy has a lovely run on the outside with the mid-moving Bridge Honcho on his inner and the Irish raider can exert his brutal early pace and skip clear. It will take something special to catch him.

Heat 7 – 20:58

One of the weaker looking heats is headed by the fast but erratic and injury prone Slick Santiago. If he brings his A-Game he will win this but that is all-too-often not the case and so recent trials stakes winner King Bradley can capitalise. Bradley has never seemed accustomed to Romford but has shown he can run Wimbledon well and barring traffic from the occasionally fast-away Final McCoy, he can swoop round the outside and not be for catching. It is a good opportunity for the others to qualify but there chances overall look extremely far-fetched.

Heat 8 – 21:15

The top and the bottom look like they are going to have a real battle here and it will give a serious indication of the chances of Shaneboy Alley as Droopys Jet is proven round here having been a Semi-Finalist last year. When I bark proven, I mean he kept qualifying as he never got the curved boxes that we have in the UK last year and for that reason, if he misses the break as he did all of last year, Alley will need no invitation to show his Swindon track-record breaking pace.

Heat 9 – 21:32

By 21:32 tonight it certainly will be ‘Chico Time’ as the unknown quantity of Farloe Chico makes his debut in the UK. At the price of 4/6 he is surely best swerved and whilst he does face a relatively easy assignment, Jaytee Zeus has ran creditably at Romford for a while and the longer run up at Wimbledon will play to his early-pace strengths. He could lead and he will set a benchmark, albeit not a terribly stiff one, for Chico to show if he is as nimble as his dancing namesake.

Heat 10 – 21:48

If Ballymac Vic can put in an error-free tournament then he will be the one to beat in this competition, including Eske, in my dog’s honest opinion. He has yet to go through a tournament without a blip and the fact he faces six rounds here is worrying for any backers antepost. With the rails diving Cu Na Mianta on his inside he can cheat his wide draw here and win comfortably. It is later rounds where he will be worried.

Heat 11 – 22:03

Another dog, like Garryglass Rodge, that you do not want drawn outside of you is Golden Wonder and he is set for a great battle with the ever-improving and likeable Bonamassa Rocks. Rocks shot to fame with a sub-34 seconds run at Romford in an A1 as a very young dog which is seriously impressive speed but will need to shirk off Lister’s rails-lover here. While those two are scrimmaging, Jaytee Hellcat will have the run of the race and he is not one to give a second invitation too. He is also a lively outsider for the tournament as he has the desire to keep qualifying.

Heat 12 – 22:18

The big powerhouse of an early-paced merchant that is Lemon Pluto can show my Irish colleagues that they will not have it all their own way in this tournament. Tyrur Sugar Ray is another you do not want outside of you and although he will be slow-away, he can cause enough hindrance to the Ladbrokes 600 winner, Ringtown Snowy (who beat Sugar Ray in that final), for Pluto to skip clear and show his credentials for the whole tournament.

Heat 13 – 22:35

My old friend Alien Planet lines up again and his favouritism is still questionable when I paw over his overall form. Longwood Fantasy is no mug and will not need an invitation to win this, but he will unlikely not be given one from the all-round pace of Hather George who is in scintillating form over various trips and can win a few rounds of the Derby this year. Young Golden, the Gymcrack winner, will need to step up again but with him drawn next to George it could give Lister’s charge a nice run to the bend and we now know he stays.

So there are my thoughts for Friday’s installment of the Derby. Please tweet or comment me if you have anything to say and I’ll bark back at you with vigour. Eske better be looking right when he comes out of the traps as Rodge will certainly be looking the other way!

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The Derby – Antepost Thoughts

So here we are, the Derby begins tomorrow! I’m nearly as excited as when I see a squirrel on my walk and I’m trying to contain my excitement enough to assemble a team to enter the Derby with for the Lolly Faithful. The presence of Ballymac Eske at the head of the market is a justified position but despite the drift to 10/1 recently (perhaps due to his draw in the First Round) he is still making the market for those looking for value propositions: that is the name of the game for me! He is undoubtedly a superstar but there are still negatives surrounding him to not justify him to be as short as he is and connections must have despaired at his draw on Friday.

Of course, he could ping out in sensational fashion as he has been doing of late and stamp his authority on Heat 6, but if he does not, then it will be a fascinating race. The fact he has only truly pinged out of the Wimbledon boxes once, albeit in his last supreme performance in the Juvenile, suggests he may just miss the break at the Plough Lane circuit. Garryglass Rodge on his immediate outside has shown in the Golden Sprint and numerous races before that when he is drawn any wider than 1, he will dart inside at traps rise: that could put Eske in a world of trouble. This is accompanied with the presence of one of the few dogs that the Draper kennel would not have liked to see drawn next to their superstar in Round One, Farloe Tango, lining up next to him in red. Tango has had his problems and quirks but he showed tremendous spirit to overhaul Eske over the Course and Distance last year and if he fancies it, he will prove a match for Eske. This is Round One we are talking about! This is furthered by Isabels Boy having a very good draw for him in 6 and the Irish speed merchant may be away and gone. Bridge Honcho is likely to follow Boy round and then could we be looking at the possibility of Eske being bumped and coming fifth? Many will think I am barking mad but it is not a scenario I would like my 10/1 shot in a 6 round Derby to be facing in the First Round! He is making the market.

Of the others towards the fore of the market, it is dominated by my Irish colleagues who have been enticed by the 150,000 treats on offer, which is enough for any greyhound for at least one year’s supply. Ballymac Vic is a superstar in his own right and in the clear is devastatingly fast, but his career is a tale of woe in terms of claiming silverware and he has the air of Razldazl Jayfkay about him; capable of breaking any track record anywhere at any given time, but supporters need to hold their breath at traps rise every round. I certainly won’t be one of those! Kereight King is an exciting prospect and has his supporters after some convincing performances yet his price is more than reflective of his achievements and whilst it is hard to see him not going a very long way, there is better value further down. Droopys Jet was a Semi-Finalist last year after clearly angering the Dogs with some truly horrendous draws, yet his efforts in Ireland as a pinging early-paced railer turned into scrappy grinding performances at Plough Lane. I cannot help but feel he just does not understand the boxes on these shores: 16/1 is plenty short enough.

Eden Star is interesting as he showed his liking for Wimbledon last year in the First Round when destroying his rivals for early, middle and late pace but picked up an injury from his exertions that night and it is difficult to come up with a convincing case that he can last all 6 rounds. If he makes it to the final it will take a very good colleague to beat him. Priceless Sky is a likeable sort but that is more than factored into his price and it’s hard to make a case for him on value grounds at 25/1. Further down notable entries are Garryglass Rodge’s best mate Tyrur Sugar Ray as they would both prefer to be in trap 0. The early-paced Money Talks (who missed the break in his trial stakes which is a concern), the strong Screen Critic and the sprinting pace of Knockglass Billy all have a chance too. They all have pace and claims but I am happy to take them on with my team, assembled on behalf of the Lolly Faithful. Here they are:

Shaneboy Alley – 1 doggie treat e/w @ 20/1

The Arc winner has looked every part a Derby contender since he came over from Ireland and catered for a strong Arc field with a track-record performance in the Semi-Finals. He has everything for Wimbledon: early, determination and staying power for the long run-in. Being seeded Wide is a huge benefit this year in my opinion, too, as their is a lack of top quality wides and so he should be treated to favourable draws throughout. He also has shown he can come out of traps 5 or 6 (which was Bubbly Phoenix’s undoing last year) and actually pinged like yours truly out of 5 during that campaign at Swindon: that performance put him firmly in this Derby frame. In Ireland he led Skywalker Puma (the Irish Derby champion) for effectively 480m before being overhauled for the extra yards at Shelbourne and that is a form-line that speaks volumes of this dog’s ability over this trip. He also beat Golden Wonder recently in a trial over the Course and Distance convincingly and Wonder with a clear run is arguably one of the fastest puppies in training. Alley has the credentials and the likelihood of favourable draws through all of the rounds to back him to win this most prestigious of tournaments.

Isabels Boy – 1 doggie treat e/w @ 25/1

This Irish early-paced merchant is drawn in the heat of death, 6, but can lay down a serious marker by surging round the outside and at least coming second to Eske if Draper’s charge pings. His form in Ireland barks volumes about him being a competition sort with 10 wins and 11 seconds and his electric early can see him avoid trouble through the tournament. He was beaten by the rapid Razldazl Luke (who is now sunning himself in Australia) and Camas (who is stuck in less favourable weather in Ireland, although he is breeding so every cloud…) in respective races by a short-head which shows that this dog can run. This is furthered by the ultra-impressive form-line of beating Paradise Madison 2 weeks before Madison set an astonishing track-record at Shelbourne and thus the form is gaining momentum that this dog can go the distance in this tournament. He is trained by Matt Dartnall who knows how to get a dog into a final of this competition with his training performance of Derby favourite, Farloe Ironman, last year being admirable. Boy has been trialling well and can build his stamina as the competition grows and the fact he is a middle seed, with the aforementioned lack of wides, should mean he is drawn in at least 4 for the majority of the tournament. With so many rail-seeking early-paced pingers in this year’s Derby, it will almost certainly be a better place to be drawn wide of the potential chaos for the rails lovers.

Farloe Warhawk – 1 chewstick e/w @ 33/1

Following a sensational campaign as a puppy last year, Warhawk was at the head of the antepost market for a considerable time. Since then, he started the year disappointingly and has drifted dramatically yet this drift is far too much for a dog that has just set the track-record at Coventry. He won 10 of his first 11 starts including an all-the-way, gritty success against Eske in the Puppy Derby over the Course and Distance and he has the prerequisites for a Wimbledon dog in abundance. Superb early accompanied with determination at the bends means this dog can go a long way and make a mockery of the doubters who are over-reacting to his Winter form. The Summer is back now (or so the calendar tells me as I look outside from my sofa) and Warhawk has proven he can do it the hard way too by winning the Laurels from behind against some very useful sorts. He is drawn on the inside of the rails-diving Holborn Junior so should fend him off and then exert his authority down the back straight and demonstrate his credentials.

Lemon Pluto – 1/2 a piece of bread e/w @ 33/1

Another Wimbledon-suited greyhound for the Lolly Faithful here who has the credentials to go a long way. He showed his liking for Plough Lane by winning his trial stakes in authoritative fashion and provided he doesn’t have any mishaps at the traps, can go a long way in the tournament. He is drawn in a relatively tough heat with the very quick Tyrur Sugar Ray and Ringtown Snowy, with the latter turning over the former at odds-on in the Ladbrokes 600 at Shelbourne recently. It was indeed a surprise to see Sugar Ray come for this Derby and his suitability for Wimbledon is a huge question mark. It could be moreso when Pluto is away-and-gone from him in Heat 12. The doubt over Pluto is that he lost the Northern Puppy Derby to the undoubtedly strong Teejays Bluehawk, but it was disappointing to see Pluto give up his lead over 480m to a dog destined for great achievements over further. Indeed, I might be made to regret my bark there but if Bluehawk wins the Derby I will give up my sofa back to my owners. On second thoughts, I just do not think he will win so I will leave it at that.

Holdem Spy – 1 chocolate drop e/w @ 80/1

This enigmatic fellow has been delighting the crowds at Coventry with an unbelievable turn of foot as he swoops round the outside to pick off his fellow competitors. The doubt of whether he is chasing the hare to his full ability or showboating for his adoring following is a question that we will almost certainly find out the answer to during this tournament, but if he is running with his full concentration he is not an 80/1 shot: nowhere near it! It has been more than factored into his odds the fact that he may have other ideas about the game and now he has had a change of scenery and change of track could bring the best out of my colleague. He has the pace to win the Derby.

Judicial Ruling – 1/2 sausage e/w @ 100/1

My tongue has fallen out of my mouth several times about this chap for different reasons. Not seen since the final last year, I thought he had retired for a life watching Pets Do the Funniest Things on his sofa but no, he is back! He is 100/1! An incredible price for a dog who would have arguably been sent off favourite for the Derby final last year barring a very late plunge on Farloe Ironman; he has also surely been targeted for this tournament for a year by connections. Because of his absence he is lightly raced for a 4 year old and the fact he sustained an injury in the Second Round last year and continued to produce superb performances shows his durability for the 6 rounds is there and it will take a good dog to knock him out. Of course, the question is whether he is the same fellow that we saw last year come out of nowhere to reach the final, but if he is 3/4 of that dog from last year he will make odds of 100/1 look very wide of the mark. Let’s see what he has got!

Farloe Tango – 1 doggie treat @ 25/1 (Already Advised)

The Lolly Faithful have been on Tango for a while as we have then watched his antics with astonishment and bewilderment. He may stop at any time if he feels like it. He may jog round the back like I jog in the park (actually I would overtake dogs if I was jogging but you know what I mean!). He may not bother to even get in the traps. Yet, he has shown that when he focuses his talent and ability is superb and if anyone can get him right for a Derby, it is Mr Lister OBE.

So there are my thoughts on the Derby. It is with regret that I cannot go into more detail about why I have left out other contenders who have a chance but I do not perceive them as value. My paws are beginning to get tired as well and I have heard the lead being rustled so I’m going for a walk! As ever please comment or tweet if you have anything to say and I will bark back in my usual fashion! If I had to pick one dog to win the Derby: Farloe Warhawk.

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The Regency Final and Sky Supporting Card Thoughts

A class assembly of my colleagues line up for the Regency final tonight and I hope they like their paws getting wet! It has been raining constantly on the South Coast today and it may be a question of finding the dogs that have the best doggie paddle to win the races at Hove this evening. It is worth holding back to see how the track is running before dispensing of any of your hard-earned doggie treats but as this is a preview so I have no such luxury. I would definitely be favouring an outside strong sort most of the time in these conditions over a pacey railer. So here are my thoughts for the action provided by my fellow hounds:

19:34 – Hurdles

Lenson Johnny has been highly thought-of since making his transition to the obstacles but he has yet to live up to his billing. He was second favourite for the Springbok earlier in the year and failed to make any sort of significant impact in that competition for novice hurdlers: he is best avoided. Baran Bally Hi has been a class act throughout his career on these shores and the Emerald Isle and can let his class tell tonight. He is normally slow from the start but is a nice jumper and can swoop round the outside of this field to win this. Green Amigo finally gave his relentless backers some respite at Sheffield last week but he has a terrible draw to work from now, which accompanied by his disappointing efforts in previous outings means that he is hard to fancy.

19:49 – Sprint

The market may have overreacted to Droopys Quincy’s devastating display of pace last week on the card before the cameras began to roll. He has his chance in the limelight tonight and the bark around the kennels is that he is not camera-shy so a repeat performance of pace is possible. He went quicker than Farloe Barracuda to set new figures at Sheffield and considering the opposition Barracuda had behind him, Quincy has a great line of form on his card now. Another, however, who has an impressive CV is Billymatt who would not be a 9/2 shot around his beloved Romford. He is a class act in Essex and whilst the draw in 4 is far from ideal as he prefers the stripes, he is too big to power to the bend and remind Quincy of his puppy status. Helenas Sailor has form around the Course and Distance but lacks the consistency and perhaps pace of Billymatt and the Romford raider can show why he is feared by layers on Friday nights.

20:04 – Puppies

The Gymcrack runner-up Droopys Odell takes a significant drop in class, has his favourite trap and the mid-moving Blonde Razor on his immediate outside. Just when you’re thinking I’m going to put an entire year’s supply of Pedigree Chewstix on him though, he has been known to miss the break and whilst he could surge to the front, at cramped odds he is best watched. He will most likely win this in style.

20:19 – Marathon

The figures that Ballymac Swift has been producing over the last month are quite simply staggering and whilst I’ve never been good at Maths, as they didn’t teach me it when I was being schooled, all of these track record displays are hard to ignore. Yet this is an odds game and Michaels Gift has slipped under the radar here. She finished ahead of Swift in the Ted Hegarty in Ireland and ran creditably in the Regency. She now steps up to her optimum distance and this is a long marathon so Swift will have to be careful not to put too much effort into the early exchanges. This is especially relevant as she will likely be joined by Bubbly Capel for the first 6 bends and whilst those two race each other out in front, Gift can turn handy from a good draw and use all of her stamina in the dying strides. Black Lamora is a huge danger if anywhere near at the 7th bend as she will be staying on, arguably forever.

20:34 – Bitches

It’s turning into a night that if the short-priced favourites oblige, the Lolly household will be treatless for a considerable period which will mean constant howling in disgust. Yet, I believe Bridge Ruth is too short here and I am going to take her on (I’d also like to take her out but that’s a different story). She can be poor from traps 5 and 6 (she has lost 4 from the wide boxes) and she seems to be a bitch that likes to have things her own way (on second thoughts, she’s becoming less appealing) and so she is too short at 4/6. If she leads it will be all over bar the barking but a bitch with a great draw and a much more appealing price is Jaytee Jules. She ran well in the Monmore Spring Festival Bitches and is the litter-sister of serious Derby contender Jaytee Hellcat. Therefore, she may be open to improvement and she has the early to turn prominent, perhaps in the lead if Ruth does indeed miss the break, and she can outrun odds of 12/1 on the bunny. Vivendi Blue is stepping up in class but has pace, whilst Sharies Miller has never seemed to take to the Hove circuit. Jules is the bark for me.

20:49 – Stayers

Sometimes a dog can be over-hyped and we have a definite contender for that in Bouncy Bocko. The poor dog has yet to run over 6 bends but is apparently the contender to be the greatest 6-bend dog of all time (OK, perhaps not that hyped up but you know what I mean!). He was subject to a huge gamble in the 3 Steps to Victory but failed to impress over his now apparently inadequate trip and until I see it with my own eyes, I am going to take him on. Holbeins Champ has class 6-bend form and ran really well in the first round of the Regency. He also has a great looking draw with the 3 inside dogs lacking any sort of real early. Of the three inside dogs the danger is Eden Rumble who has the second best name of a dog that I have heard in Gavin, and Gavin is a danger if he turns menacingly. I think Champ will be away-and-gone though and the potential superstar that is Bouncy Bocko will have a real race on his paws and not just a show of good pace to the pickup.

21:04 – Standard

The undoubted superstar of the extended 4-bend trip round Hove is Airlie Impact and he can win this. Whilst his draw in trap 4 looks poor on the surface, it is not that bad as Droopys Ed Moses must have been playing on his dog mobile in the traps last week and Islas Scolari has very little early. Impact dislikes other tracks but here he will be able to use his devastating back-straight pace to win a race that is lacking in depth.

21:19 – Regency Final

Providing the sand hasn’t been washed away by this point, the Lolly Faithful will be barking for Fear Emoski who we are on at 7/2 antepost. In my dog blog for the competition (which can be found in full here: http://is.gd/Y6zbx7) I suggested that in her heat Emoski “can progress to the tougher challenges ahead in the Semis and Final; which I believe she will cope with consummate ease” and that statement is what I stand by: I think she will win this final with “consummate ease”. She has been fortunate with her draw and it will take a ridiculous bias towards the outside or for her to uncharacteristically miss the break altogether for her not to show her supreme middle and put these to the sword. Musical Gaga is in the form of her life, as is the well-drawn Ayamzabeauty who ran a huge race to qualify in the Semis, but neither have the style, grace and power of Emoski and she can demonstrate all three of those attributes tonight. Bubbly Swallow will need to fly from the boxes to be in the mix.

So here are the recommendations for the Lolly Faithful:

19:49: Billymatt – 1 doggie treat @ 9/2

20:49: Holbeins Champ – 2 pieces of bread at 11/4

21:04: Airlie Impact – 1 chewstick @ 13/8

So there are a dog’s thoughts on the proceedings and as ever, please tweet or comment if you have any thoughts yourself. I’ll promise to bark back at you but I’m going on my walk now and am fortunate enough to own a nice leather jacket so I won’t get too wet, and I’ll look fashionable at the same time. My colleagues will be getting wet this evening though and it will most likely be in vain in the Regency as Emoski is a fearful prospect.

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3 Steps to Victory Final and Supporting Card Thoughts

My colleagues return to Sky Sports this evening with the final of the intriguing contest that is the 3 Steps to Victory being supported by a classy undercard. The Lolly Faithful currently have their treats riding on Romeo Recruit at 16/1 each-way antepost and the question is: will he stay? Whilst I’ll be barking at the screen like a lunatic in the final stages as my colleague is gasping for air, I think his breeding and his running style suggest he will just about get there. More on that later but let’s first look at where the value is for the Lolly Faithful as that is the name of the game:

19:34 – Puppies

Teddy The Legend has a lot to live up to given the nature of his name but he should not dent the credibility of his self-proclaimed Legend status by winning here. Indeed, there is a certain arrogance about this litter with Golden Wonder believing he owns the rails and Young Golden waiting until a final to win in style, but these brothers are blessed with serious pace and ability. Droopys Odell was runner-up in the Gymcrack and has a decent draw but The Legend can make-all and begin his quest to gain legendary status like some of us.

19:49 – Hurdles

Whilst I was sunbathing today on the lawn I briefly rested my eyes, which I’m sure you will agree is acceptable for a dog to do in his retirement, but my problem is that when I awoke this race has been put to SP and so I must have missed something. I’ve been pawing all over the internet and I have heard a rumour that my colleague in trap 4 is a non-runner but there is no barking at the kennels about this so I am confused. I assume all six run. As we are trying to find value, it is therefore a non-treatworthy race but I expect Soviet Military to dominate on the outside. A lack of a look round is a concern as he will not know if he is on a 12 or 13 stride pattern between the hurdles, but us dogs are more adaptable than humans and he can swoop round the outside. Mash Mad Snowy has pace but is a dog without a distance (and now seemingly discipline) and Green Amigo is a former A1 competitor here but is struggling to get his head in front at the crucial time to win a race.

20:04 – Stayers

The reason I took my first nap this afternoon instead of the usual 3 naps in the morning is that I have been busily getting my doggie treats on this race. Aghaburren Paddy at 4/1 and now 7/2 (the bookmakers must have got tired of converting money into doggie treats to pay me) is huge value for this versatile dog who is extremely hard to beat on the bunny over any distance: he can lead these. Farloe Kyle has early and determination in front but he is a railer and lacks consistency, so I am willing to take him on and therefore Paddy can gain a cheap lead. He also has a good run with Hather Sherlock and Granard Bound lacking early and if either of those can get themselves close in the final stages they will pose a threat. Paddy will have too much power for them.

20:19 – Standard

It is great to see the return of Bucks Blade this evening and a tilt at the Derby looks the call for this classy individual. The Lolly Faithful were on Blade last year in the Derby and he ran very creditably to get to the Quarter-Finals, beating very useful sorts on his way to the last 24. He had a poor draw that night and just could not turn handy. That is a different story today. He is unbeaten at this track (3 from 3) and only has to confirm fitness issues to land this race and he looks very generously priced considering his calibre. Longwood Fantasy is an admirable sort who always gives his all but would not be joint-favourite with Blade this time last year. Phanters Capri is running well and so it would be remiss for me not to bark about her credentials, but Blade is a different class to her and these.

20:34 – Marathon

Now this is a marathon! I’m pretty sure we were not bred to go this far but here my colleagues will grind out a very long 8 bend trip and stamina will be a great issue. The remarkable comeback of Bubbly Capel for the last Sky meet was a great story for the Champagne Club and this bitch can gain a hold on this race in the first half and not be for catching. Whether Aero Rebel actually stays this far is questionable and her antics away from Romford are not encouraging: she is worth avoiding when away from home. Storming Coco is a terrific local bitch but is priced accordingly considering Bubbly Capel is a classy sort when right.

20:49 – Sprint

It must be said that this is one of the best dashes I’ve seen in a long while, probably since I was running, with all of these colleagues possessing serious 2 bend speed. The Golden Sprint winner Farloe Barracuda is still hard to get away from and whilst I would have given him a race to remember, these will probably struggle to cope with his explosive early. He will head to Wimbledon for the Derby soon and will be a player if he stays, which is of serious doubt after Droopys Loner nearly caught him in the Golden Sprint, but that is for another day and we can admire this dog’s pace in extremely good company today.

21:04 – 500m

Farloe Warhawk came back to form on Sunday just at the perfect time for a tilt at the Derby and his brother, Many Are Called, can show why he is heading to Wimbledon with his sibling by winning here. He fluffed his lines last time out but that is excusable, and the longer run to the bend over this trip will be ideal for his early to surge to the front. Whether he is in the same class as his brother is questionable but he can beat a decent field here. Longwood Bound ran well in the Arc before being outclassed in the final and a repeat dose could be on the cards here. Airlie Impact needs a galloping track for which Sheffield is arguably not and so he is best watched before returning to his beloved Hove; he does have a good draw, however, and is always a danger with his ability and pace.

21:19 – 3 Steps to Victory Final

The Lolly Faithful could once again be dining in style this evening with our antepost bet on Romeo Recruit and it is hard to envisage him not being at least in the melting pot around the final two bends. Then it is game on! My antepost analysis still remains (it can be found in full here http://is.gd/NlcpIj) that in his heat over 480m “Recruit will be laying down a marker here and if his breeding as a stayer is confirmed, he is worth siding with in the tournament at 16/1” and the fact his litter-brother has won over 6 bends bodes well for us tonight. If Welton Arthur can turn handy he is of course a huge danger but Jazz Tilly should have enough pace over the first 5 bends to give Arthur something to think about, which he has been prone to before, and that could be enough to seal it for Recruit. It is hard to make a case for Hather George over this trip now after his Semi final performance where he was being reeled in by Arthur and I would be backing Recruit to beat him over 4 bends in any case. Bubbly Jaytee will almost certainly stay this distance but has struggled in top-class company, which he has been pitched in all too often in his career.

So the recommendations for the Lolly Faithful are:

20:04: Aghaburren Paddy – 3 doggie treats @ 7/2

20:19: Bucks Blade – 1 chewstick @ 5/2

21:04: Many Are Called – 1 dog bone @ 5/2

So there are a dog’s thoughts on the proceedings and as ever please tweet or comment if you have anything to say and I’ll bark back at you in my usual fashion. They will need to come and catch the Recruit today and in all likeliness, he will not be for catching.

Enjoy the racing,

Jimmy

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The Regency Antepost Thoughts

One of the highlights of the year for the stayers begins tonight and the list of previous winners has the feel of a who’s who of 6 bend champions of the past. Therefore, to find value in this tournament it is imperative that the top of the market is treated with great respect as at Hove over this long 6 bend trip on a galloping circuit, the cream of my colleagues normally rise to the top.

One potential superstar of the 6 bend scene is Fear Emoski who has turned encouraging 4 bend form into devastating displays of all-round pace and determination in her 2 wins over 6 bends to date (from 2 races). It really is hard to ignore her at the head of the market and those lucky enough to have been on her at an opening price of 9/2 really have found some value. For those unlucky enough to miss that price, which includes myself as I was having a nap at the time, the 3/1 still available still looks worthy of one of our beloved doggie treats. She has a great draw in the heats with the reopposing Crinkill Jewell being the only realistic challenger this evening and Emoski can progress to the tougher challenges ahead in the Semis and Final; which I believe she will cope with consummate ease.

Michaels Gift is an intriguing bitch from Ireland and it is hard to gauge how impressive her facile win last week over the course and distance was as it was basically a trial for a bitch of her class. I think the market may have overreacted and so the value is not there at a best priced 10/1 for me. In a similar fashion, Musical Gaga has been backed having caught Bubbly Swallow last week but Swallow is an enigmatic bitch and it may have flattered Gaga that she was able to get on terms and overtake. Droopys Xavier is the nearly-dog of the 6 bend division and only appeals as each-way value in competitions like this: odds of 14/1 look cramped and unappealing. The aforementioned Swallow is in my opinion, and I am only a dog, a bitch without a distance and the fact she was picked up having led last week reaffirms my belief that she should be feared in any race but not to be backed at short odds. Dural Bound nearly found himself on my most prestigious of lists that I recommend to the Lolly Faithful, as he is a game sort and could be a force over the next year, but he is priced accordingly with Killieford Khali: they could both be very good but it will be a brave human to back them at the moment as they need to progress.

A dog that does not need to progress to win this is Swift Signal who is arguably not the force of old, but that is more than catered for in his odds. He is a powerful, determined colleague and is capable of raising his game back to the heights of last year and winning this tournament, if Emoski was to fail. He has a good draw to work from tonight being drawn next to the slow-away Dural Bound and the disappointing Freedom Cache and can march into the Semis. He is slightly draw dependent as he likes the rails but he normally has enough early to turn prominent against most 6 bend sorts and without many early-paced merchants in this tournament, he can turn handy against virtually all of these entries. Blonde Reagan is starting to get down to a price where he will be backable as he is capable of reproducing his all-conquering form of last year at any point, but preference is for Signal at similar prices as his form has not dipped as far as Reagan’s has.

So here are the recommendations:

Fear Emoski – 1 doggie treat @ 3/1

Swift Signal – 1 dog bone broken in half @ 18/1

So there are a dog’s thoughts on the proceedings. As ever please comment or tweet if you have anything to say and I promise to not howl at you like I do when my food is being prepared. Fear Emoski looks a potential star for Charlie Lister and claims of “she will never be beaten over 6 bends” that I have heard being barked around the kennels, will be put to the test in this high class affair: she can pass this test.

Enjoy the racing,

Jimmy

Unknown's avatar

The Arc Final and Supporting Sky Card Thoughts

A tournament that has been surrounded in controversy concludes this evening with the feeling that anything could happen being the only realistic prediction! It would be harsh to chastise my colleague Longwood Warrior too severely as his antics in the rounds of the tournament have come completely out of the blue, but whether he will be chasing the hare or the other dogs this evening is a question that will hopefully be the former. He is certainly quick enough. I never really knew if the dogs behind me were chasing me or the hare because they never got close enough for that to be an issue. Anyways, on to the card which has quite a few tricky races to call with the standard being especially high in some of the contests. As ever, I will find some value for the Lolly Faithful in amongst the intriguing undercard:

19:34 – Bitches

Regular readers of the dog blog will know that I’ll be lying on the edge of the sofa with my eyes firmly glued to this one as I enjoy these races with classy bitches involved. Butts Mott rose through the grades at Monmore rapidly, which is a fair standard, but was a no-show in the Arc and if she repeats those antics, it could set the race up for Forest Mollie to pinch an all-important lead and reverse her course-and-distance loss to Sharies Miller. Miller is a game bitch, of which I have a particular fondness for, but she will need to avoid trouble and with Mollie being drawn inside her this evening, she might not be for catching. Forest Dot is formidable on the bunny but will be needing the rails. I’ll be looking forward to watching Tarty Toes in the parade due to the lure of her name, but she looks outclassed.

19:49 – Sprint

This has the feel of a two-dog race and the question is whether Guinness Sky will take to the track having his first look round. If he doesn’t it will most likely be a procession for Chester Lad. He is, however, a fast but beatable sort and at the prices it is worth backing Sky to build on his impressive young career to date. His latest race can be forgiven as he had no sort of draw to work from whatsoever but today he should be able to lead the gutsy Lord Save Us and then prove too pacey for the well-drawn Lad.

20:04 – 509er

The Arc trip was probably on the short-side for Ardkill Star but those sighters will be a benefit today when he returns to this more adequate trip. He has drawn his favourite box and can steal a march on the track-record holder Crusty Crab. Despite being lightly-raced, it must be remembered that Crab is now a veteran and whilst my creaking bones are reserved for a jog in the park these days (albeit a very fast jog), he cannot be trusted to rediscover the blistering pace of his youth. Gemstone Jack has pace but often gives himself too much to do and can get into some trouble too often for my liking.

20:19 – Stayers

Ding Hero sadly did not make it through the first round of the 3 Steps to Victory for the Lolly Faithful over his inadequate trip but he can demonstrate his class over 6 bends here. He can come out of any box so trap 4 is not a problem and he should assert from the off and not be for catching. Navarone was an expensive purchase and is slowly recouping some of that for connections but is a bang railer and the stripes will not benefit him at all; he looks the chief threat, however. It is difficult to envisage Hero not producing a facile success here and is worth backing with a doggie treat for those who like a flutter with their food.

20:34 – Standard

The three inside dogs in this affair have all shown early in their careers and are classy colleagues of mine. They all have question marks over them though and look worth swerving. Scolari Express is making his UK debut for Paul Sallis, whose kennel strength is growing for the Derby, and so he may take time to settle with a dog that he beat in Ireland, Ladbrokes Star, also taking time to get used to the British way of life as an example. Farloe Iceman, full-brother to the Derby second Farloe Ironman, looks a slight shadow of his former self which showed in the Semis of the Arc; he looks as though his best days are behind him and a career of the breeding paddocks and the sofa watching Pets Do The Funniest Things beckons. Taranis Rex is a star of the Swindon circuit on-and-off the track but he did not take to his draw out-wide at all in his last race and he will have to clear the two early-paced merchants on his inside. Incidentally, Rex has taken to Twitter and so may be interested in a career like myself as a Freelance Journadog after his racing days conclude. The possibility of those three tangling could lead to the well-drawn and likeable Tyrur Willyjoe pinging out like he did in the heats of the Arc to only be caught in the dying strides. He may be too far ahead today to be caught and he is worth a treat from anyone’s cupboard at 10/1.

20:49 – Super Stayers

The remarkable statistic that Ballymac Swift went under the track record for 4 bends when going on to record an impressive track-record over the 8 bends at Coventry is hard to ignore in this contest. The barks from around the kennels are starting to suggest that my colleague Aero Rebel is a one-track specialist and as she is the only realistic contender to Swift here, it looks like this will be a matter of how far.

21:04 – 509er

Arguably the classiest race of the undercard here poses some real questions into the outcome. Will Longwood Fantasy lead? Is Ballymac Cryan as good as last term? Can Slippery Patch turn handy? Was it a freak run in the heats from Tyrur Andy? When am I getting fed (sorry I got distracted)? Anyways, my heads starting to hurt more than when I used to get patted on the head vigorously after winning. I’m going to side with a stalwart for the Lolly Faithful in Sawpit Sensation regaining his form as Airlie Impact will go for his usual visit to the restaurant and back during the race to give Sensation enough room to challenge. He may even lead. He’s a truly top dog and I doubt his trainer would run his superstar if he was not totally fit.

21:19 – Arc Final

Some real Derby contenders come into this contest looking to build some momentum before heading to Wimbledon. Longwood Warrior’s pace was frightening to pick up Jolly Bullseye in the Semi and whilst he was a naughty boy on the run-in, he still got his head in front and could do so again today, although the likelihood of a photo-finish is more of a possibility. Longwood Bound could be hindered by his kennelmate and the fact that Jolly Bullseye will be looking for room on the inside. So whilst those three tussle on the inside, I think that Shaneboy Alley will be able to lead the outside as he did last week and not be for catching. He has thrived on his racing since arriving from Ireland and if he wins tonight, I’m sure Rab McNair will be asking “what price the Derby”? He looks to have too much early and too much pace for these and can show that tonight.

So there are a dog’s thoughts on the proceedings. Please tweet or comment if you have anything to say about what I have barked and I promise I’ll try and avoid any puns on the Warrior name of Longwood Warrior if at all possible. It has been a real battle to do so, so far.

Enjoy the racing,

Jimmy