So after an intriguing tournament, the Lolly Faithful are feeling pretty pleased with themselves having had two of their most beloved doggie treats on White Soks Roks at 8/1 antepost (now best-priced Evs). Before the masses of Followers get too excited, however, he hasn’t won it yet! Another performance like the two he has produced so far would surely seal it but I, as a greyhound, know that it is not that easy (even I lost, occassionally). So here are my thoughts on the final and how it could unfold:

Soks has his perfect draw in trap six in order to utilise his superb early-pace with his elegant, long stride leaving others in his wake. If he misses it, though, his litter-brother Paulines Pride is perfectly well-equipped to punish his brother in a typically ugly sibling rivalry for these youngsters. The problem for Pride is that he has yet to show the early of his nearest-and-dearest and so Soks would have to miss the break terribly for him to figure for me; as we know from my first dog blog, it is very hard to pass dogs on the bends at Crayford and one can’t envisage Pride beating Soks for pace on the straights.

So where is the challenge going to come from? Droopys Xavier is a likeable sort, especially on the bunny, and has a great draw to work from with two tardy trappers either side: he is a danger. His limitations may have been exposed in the Semi-Final though in that he lacks that extra yard of pace to make him a serious consideration in Category One tournaments and whilst he is valiant, for me there needs to be a huge rail bias or significant trouble behind him for him to pick up the Jacket tomorrow morning. He could have a significant role to play in dragging Eden Rumble or Pony Bride with him on the first circuit, where they can both use their finishing pace to take the Silver Jacket (which surely should be it’s title). Preference is for the former.

‘Gavin’, as he is affectionately known away from his workplace, is full of desire which has shown him run two valiant performances to get to a final that many did not expect him to achieve. Eden Rumble is too big at 12/1 considering that the (unfortunately) terribly drawn Crinkill Jewel is shorter than him. ‘Gavin’ simply does not know when he is beaten and if he can stay in contention on the first circuit, which should be achievable with Xavier’s early dragging him along, his finishing pace can gain the Silver Jacket for his growing following. Pony Bride is always to be feared as she runs forever and a day and then a morning after that, but she has shown elements of being a quirky bitch who should win more than she does over a longer trip so it is a better call to be with Rumble to chase the shadow of Soks.

Whatever the outcome, it should be a great race and let’s hope the track is fair for all of my colleagues as the track staff have had terrible trouble with going biases, both ways, over the past weeks. The recommendation is Eden Rumble (1/2 a Dog Bone e/w @ 12/1). May the best dog (or bitch) win!

Go get that bunny young Soks!

Enjoy the race,

Jimmy

Well, the first round proved to be just as exciting as it was billed up to be! Advantage definitely went to my early-paced colleagues on the whole, with the tight bends proving a menace for dogs to try and overtake. I expect a similar pattern in the Semis with the stronger dogs having less room for error this time around with only 2 qualifying and therefore having less stragglers to pick up in order to qualify. The good news for the Lolly Faithful is that we had two of our antepost dogfolio win in the first round, White Soks Roks and Ding Hero, so we can move into the Semis with confidence. The only dissapointment for us was Aero Gaga who looked well short of his best and he might be looking to hang up his collar soon. So let’s look at the Semis for tomorrow morning and try to help all those bleary-eyed Crayford folk who may have one too many milk-and-waters tonight.

11:23 – 1st Semi-Final

One thing is for sure, there is plenty of pace to the bend in this one! Farloe Elektra missed her kick in the first round but she has the ability to ping and produce early; however her chance is diminished with the impressive Droopys Xavier drawn on her immediate outside. Xavier waited at the sough when on the bunny in his heat (and personally I can’t blame him as I would have done!) and any mistakes like that could be punished, so he is best swerved for me until he shows more focus. Lottes Girl was admirable in her efforts in the heats but this was probably exacerbated by White Soks Roks tiring on the run-in, who will have come on leaps and bounds for that all-the-way success of his in the last heat. He is still the one to be feared in this tournament for me but he may have more of a race on his hands this time with the fast-up Oneco Cool likely to pose a problem around the first circuit. The negative for Cool is that he failed to overtake Bubbly Swallow (which I suppose is excusable) when he tried several times and so his temperament has yet to be proven on these shores for me. With Lode Vanquish unlikely to steal a lead at the first bend like he did in his heat win, I will be with White Soks Roks to come on for his heat win and beat Droopys Xavier in that order.

12:08 – 2nd Semi-Final

This looks a three dog race between Boherna Bridge, Paulines Pride and Ding Hero as it is hard to see Airforce Harlem improving on his run and Buglys Billie and almost certainly Pony Bride likely to be leaving it too late (they both need longer for me). The value must be with our antepost Ding Hero producing a similar effort to his heat performance where he matched antepost favourite Blonde Reagan for the first circuit before powering away from the disappointing Reagan. That form should stand the highest scrutiny because as I mentioned in my antepost dog blog, Reagan on the bunny is a fearful proposition and Hero matched him claw-to-claw. With Boherna Bridge preferring a mid-course he will likely give room for Hero to assert on the rails, with Bridge needing to produce a career best (pretty much like his heat win) to be able to live with Hero and the favourite, Paulines Pride. Pride seemed a bit one-paced in the heats and whilst his one pace is an extremely quick one, over a marathon distance you often need a change of gear at crucial times to break clear of the pack and get on the bunny (a tactic I adopted over the sprint trip). Pride is an uneasy favourite for me here and if he gets on the bunny he is likely to prove too strong, but if he turns behind either the 1 or 2 dog, then it is game on! Hero to beat Pride for me.

12:57 – 3rd Semi-Final

The weakest looking Semi on paper has produced a dream draw for the comfortable outright favourite, Bubbly Swallow, and quotes of about 4/7 are about right for her chances here. Ballymac Swift is normally tardy over the first circuit and can only hope to get dragged by the jolly, whilst Eden Rumble decided she fancied a jog for the first lap in the heats: I almost forgot she was in the race she was that far back! Whilst she produced a tremendous finish (presumably with all of that conserved energy after her lap of jogging), that will almost certainly be punished by a flying Swallow. Freedom Cache caught the eye for me and I’ve been trying to get my paws into his career and what has gone wrong for him. A dog full of potential and pace, he has never really found a trip, but he ran well in his heat and can also utilise his draw next to the aforementioned Rumble. King Lauchlan ran out of legs (I’m pretty sure he started with 4) in the slowest of the heats and that sort of effort will not be able to produce a qualifying performance against these types. Crinkill Jewel ran OK in her heat but made little impression on the leader and seemed happy to follow him round. It will be Bubbly Swallow to beat Freedom Cache for me, probably by a fair distance.

So there we are, a dog’s thoughts on the Semis which should give us further clues for an inevitably impressive final, whoever qualifies. I have one recommendation for the Lolly Faithful in Ding Hero (1 doggie treat @ 5/1) as he looks overpriced but the other two Semis look about right to me. Let’s hope Soks meets him in the final!

Enjoy the racing,

Jimmy

A fascinating, quality field of my colleagues line-up at Crayford for the Golden Jacket this year and it should be a tournament to savour. Before I learned how to type with my paws, followers of my recommendations will remember we had Blue Bee last year at 20/1 to win this Category One event and a similar approach to this year’s competition should bring dividends for the Lolly Faithful.

So, what does it take to win the Jacket? Crayford is one of the tightest tracks in the UK and passing dogs (around the bends especially) is particularly tough: being in the lead is the strategy (as it was for my career). Although ran over a marathon distance, it is almost essential that a dog has enough early to get to a prominent position by the first bend to avoid scrimmaging that will almost certainly lead to failure. This circuit is like the Monaco Formula 1 track that these humans drive their non-roadworthy vehicles around: you cannot overtake. As we saw with the final last year, Blue Bee made the bend and was brave enough to drive into the traffic to lead and then it was game over for her rivals: we need a similar sort for this year.

Of the main protagonists, Blonde Reagan has just about assumed favouritism around the 6/1 mark which is fully deserved for the Marathon and Stayer of the Year. He is imperious in front and fits the bill for the Jacket in that sense. If he traps out in each round, it is hard to envisage a dog in either England or Ireland overtaking him over 6 or 8 bends, especially around Crayford where it is so tight. That is the problem though, “if”. Mark Wallis admitted himself that “he is a dog that needs to lead” and that seems to be a shrewd assessment from the Trainer of the Year as we saw when Reagan missed the break in the Monmore Festival and ran a disappointing last (having been sent off odds-on). Therefore, 6/1 seems about the right price to me as backers will almost certainly be relying on him to trap three times in a row: which is about what those odds represent.

The others at the fore of the market that I’ve been getting my paws into are Bubbly Swallow and Paulines Pride. Swallow is a fast bitch (and believe me, I’m a fan of that) but she has always struck me as a bitch without a distance. She has early (a tick for the Crayford column) and can stay but she looked ill-at-ease around this circuit last year and missed the break twice, which proved her downfall in the Semis. There is no doubt she has improved over the past year and has ran creditably, but she offers little value at 7/1 for a bitch that has yet to show the consistency and determination to win a Category One tournament. The price on Paulines Pride is arguably worse and will certainly be getting none of my beloved doggie treats. He has ran the track brilliantly recently with two eye-catching times but this tournament is a whole different kettle of fish to those races (sorry, briefly distracted about the thought of eating fish…). His other form is unremarkable, including barely holding on against Navarone who was an expensive purchase (reportedly £10,000) but struggled to compete in graded fare at Hall Green (which is a modest standard) before being moved after his former trainer, Chris Kyme, retired. Therefore, Pride has yet to prove he is anywhere near up to the standard of these colleagues and whilst he may prove me wrong, the Lolly Faithful know that I rarely get it that far off (well, that’s what I tell myself anyway!).

Therefore, step forward the best value in the tournament: White Soks Roks. He looks cracking value for a dog who has early, stays and has beaten top-class opponents in Ireland and has thus proved his credentials. People who follow me on Twitter will know that I have been keeping a close eye on Soks (apart from at dinner time when I watch the bowls religiously) and his progress after being moved over here temporarily. He has barked to me that he is here for “UK Domination” and the price of 8/1 is too good to ignore on a dog with so much confidence after his Night of the Stars success. The form-lines of “Faw” (fast-away) in Ireland on a consistent basis show that he can ping and he has beaten the marathon star in Ireland, Future Boy, convincingly over a similar distance which is form that should be taken seriously. Soks’ trial over 4 bends was uninspiring having been beaten by Ballymac Swift (who is tardy for the first four bends – her effort in the Ted Hegarty Marathon showed that) but a dog can be forgiven for one bad trial in a new country at a new track; he has had time to settle now and should be well-up for this tournament.

As for the rest of the field, such is the quality at the top of the market it is hard to envisage any major shocks, but there is still value in breaking a doggie treat in half and going each-way on a couple of railers. This is because the top of the market is loaded with wide-runners and so if they all progress as expected, it is likely that they could cause trouble for each other. Therefore, Bubbly Swallow has had her backers for that reason, but there is far more value in siding with two dogs further out in the betting: Ding Hero and Aero Gaga. Hero has yet to run round this track which is a huge concern but if he can qualify from what looks like a tough heat with pace next to him (in Farloe Elektra) and of course the aforementioned Blonde Reagan (who is very well-drawn), Hero is too big at 33/1 in this tournament. He adjusts to new tracks well, is versatile and dependable to give his all and is a colleague that has great early when he times his break well (I will be having barks with him on improving his consistency). Aero Gaga is too big at 33/1 too. Whilst he is not the force of old that won the Ted Hegarty Marathon just over a year ago, he still has enough pace to be a threat in this tournament over this 714m trip. Over the past year he has shown signs that he would relish a shorter trip than the long marathons that he used to thrive on (I think any marathon is long by the way, it’s ridiculous!) so this trip at Crayford should be ideal and he is a tight railer who has enough early to avoid traffic problems. He has also drawn a soft looking heat with the dogs either side of him (Eden Rumble and Carden Twilight) both possessing pace but lacking in quality against dogs with real class, like Aero Gaga. Peggys Style is the main danger in this heat but her back-running style is not ideal to Crayford and I can envisage Gaga picking up a cheap lead in the heat and thus progressing to a harder challenge in the next round: which he is more than capable of dealing with.

Here are the recommendations for the loyal Lolly Faithful then:

White Soks Roks (2 doggie treats @ 8/1)
Ding Hero (1 dog bone broken in half @ 33/1)
Aero Gaga (1/2 a chewstick @ 33/1)

So there we are, as ever if you have any opinions on the dog blog then please tweet or comment and I’ll get back to you provided I’m not having a nap or looking for squirrels on my walk. It should be a fantastic tournament and it would be remiss of me not to conclude this dog blog by saying: Happy Birthday Young Soks!

P.S. Please save the celebrating for after your victory in this tournament.