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East Anglian Derby Final and Supporting Card Thoughts

The Sky cameras descend upon Yarmouth tonight and the venue could arguably be considered Charlie Lister’s home ground with his bid for an incredible 12th success in the East Anglian Derby resting on the 2011 Greyhound of the Year. His dogs just seem to have a knack of running this track brilliantly and all of his runners should be respected (perhaps even moreso than usual!) around this track. The card has a really good feel to it and the loyal Lolly followers should be rewarded with a few winners tonight – well that’s the plan anyway! Here are a dog’s thoughts on the racing:

7:40 – 462m

An intriguing contest to start us off here with Lister’s speedy pup Killieford Deal looking to atone for some costly defeats in higher class affairs. He is of no doubt a fast dog when everything clicks and was a selection for this dog blog in the Puppy Classic but ran poorly in the semis (perhaps he couldn’t see the hare with Ballymac Eske so far in front!) and has since seemed to have lost his way a bit. Therefore, at odds-on and without the luxury of his ideal six-box he is worth taking on. Droopys Ardan is well-drawn on the rails and no doubt has pace but his efforts in actual races have been disappointing by missing the break and he may take a while to adjust to racing conditions. So the value for me is with Ferndale Eagle who has question marks like the rest of this field but showed good pace in Ireland and a change of venue to Yarmouth from Romford (where his ability to turn the bends left a lot to be desired!) could be the catalyst for him to really get his UK career up-and-running and he represents the marginal value.

8:00 – 277m

It’s always nice to see Lil Risky in action as I was often too far in front of him to see how he was getting on! Joking aside he is in great form over four-bends and his trapping is sufficient enough to land a contest of this nature. The problem for him, however, is that Jimmy loves a stat now and again and this one is an absolute belter! In the last 47 open races over this course-and-distance there has not been one winner from the red box – that dates back to 2007! It is often wrong to look too much into statistics in greyhound racing but that one cannot be ignored and despite Lil Risky’s class potentially being able to defy the curse of the red-box, he also has the very likeable Big Local on his immediate outside. Local is in cracking form, he rails, and can match any dog in the country out of the boxes on his day. Throw in the railing and useful sprinter Diesel Sammy and there could be carnage for Risky if he does not produce his absolute best and the recommendation is for the well-drawn track-record holder Monleek Town. Some might argue that he needs a box closer to the rails but the make-up of the race should mean he gets the mid-to-wide ground that he wants and I’m happy to take 5/1 on a track-record holder!

8:15 – 462m

This ladies contest looks to be a great race for Belvedere Emma to demonstrate her talents and show why she is a bitch to follow in the coming months with the Oaks approaching. She would ideally prefer a draw nearer the rails but has enough pace to get out and get to the inside with Aero Joker providing the only potential hazard to such a scenario. Joker does have good early over the 575m at Romford but this step-down in trip will probably show her early is not sufficient to lead over four-bends these days and while Missy Kissy flew round in a trial last week, she has a poor draw and is unproven at this level.

8:35 – 843m

Track knowledge and experience is almost always a huge positive against dogs who are unfamiliar to the venue and that is why Aero Gaga is no more than a tentative selection. He is continually underrated over these sorts of distances and wins an impressive amount of races considering the level of opposition he is normally pitted against. The runner who could be a huge danger if getting on the bunny is Hometown Honey who has a growing reputation and graded round here earlier in the year before making the step-up to open class, so she knows the circuit better than any of her principal rivals tonight. Indeed, she will have many supporters because she ran well over the testing 925m at Romford when being picked up by reopposing Storm Pockets, who normally needs further than tonight’s trip, but Gaga has enough class to stay handy to Wallis’ bitch and beat her tonight. The other interesting runner is Powerfast Pigeon who exploded onto the marathon scene last term with some great trap-to-line successes but has lost her way massively since seasonal rest and has been poor over inadequate trips: do not be surprised though if she pings and goes away from them tonight! It is tough to envisage that unless you have a seriously good memory to remember the bitch as she was and even if she does rediscover her best form, Gaga was always at least a match for her.

8:50 – 462m

This should be a great race with some very good young dogs looking to make a promising start to their careers in all-aged company. Ayamzaman is a tremendously quick individual but just does not get any distance over his beloved 400m at Romford and a step-down in trip to a sprinting distance seems the most logical move for him in my eyes. He is surely an uneasy favourite in this race especially considering he is berthed next to another early-paced merchant in Isheforreal who has rediscovered the form that took him to the Peterborough Derby final. As those two battle it out for early supremacy, the race looks set-up for Droopys Reason to show his heat success was no flash-in-the-pan and he runs this track extremely well. He also has a good draw with Star Cash Simon likely to move towards the middle and Jordans Chris having a very questionable middle-seed tag when his path often takes quite a wide course! He is of no doubt a danger if he turns handy but Reason looks a good thing here if he is not too distressed after being knocked over in the East Anglian Derby Semi-Final (falling over at 40mph is not something I would recommend!).

9:10 – 659m

This looks a straight contest between Jaytee Monroe and Blonde Reagan with marginal preference for the latter as he has been running well in defeat of late. Monroe took off on Sky last time out in a race that had the look of a one-dog trial for her after the first bend but she will have plenty more to think about today with Reagan next to her. She may indeed get first run but Reagan showed good battling qualities against the classy Derrane Jake at Doncaster and he was arguably unlucky that the strong-running Pantone Ava got an absolute flier on the Sky card on Champion Stakes final night. His SP’s show that he is one of the most feared six-bend runners in the country and the theory here is that he can turn at least handy to Monroe and outstay her; if he leads it will probably be all over bar the shouting (and barking from yours truly!).

9:25 – 462m

When I told one my colleagues in the kennels this morning that I would be placing a doggie treat on Boher Paddy tonight he called me barking mad as the “dog is past it”! Yet he is a dog that I have always admired and he is getting one last chance to prove that he is a formidable opponent and to also contribute to my ever-growing reputation as not only an unrivalled sprinter, but an unrivalled tipper as well! I still think Paddy was extremely unlucky in the Derby (and even though I keep mentioning it I promise I’m not bitter) and although he has not won in a while, he has always been involved in top class affairs against the very best in the country. In those defeats he has lost twice to Bubbly Phoenix who is on fire at the moment (sorry, I couldn’t resist with the pun) so can be forgiven for those which leads to his performance in the heats as his only real blemish round Yarmouth in this Category One contest. Many will argue that he needs slightly further than the 462m and the track does not suit his running style but I doubt Lister would have entered him if he had concerns about the track for Paddy, even if his inclusion may be due to his time running-out to notch a much-deserved tournament win in his unlucky career. With a great run he just looks huge at 7/2 for a dog with his pace and Loughteen Blanco looks far too short for me while I’m looking over his recent races from the sofa. Blanco was extremely fortunate to qualify for the Semi-Final of the tournament concluding tonight as he completely missed the break to an almost embarassing extent in the Second Round. He then followed this up with an average break in the Semis and he just seems to have lost his knack for trapping which saw him land the Classic and go ever-so-close in the Sussex Cup: he may need a break! Amongst the other threats for Paddy is Ballycowen Dave who won the Kent Derby for this dog blog but really needs to be in trap six to show his best talents. Jaytee Pedro also needs to be respected but he is all-too-often an also-ran for his speed and so he is best swerved in races against such talented dogs as these.

9:45 – 462m

So the final of the East Anglian Derby has once again thrown up the question of Taylors Sky and if he is the same dog that won the Derby last year; even if he is not quite as good (which is often painfully debatable) he is certainly value at 3/1! The disparagy in his price with Bubbly Phoenix has left me somewhat perplexed and it has disturbed many of my dog naps trying to work out how Phoenix is odds-on for tonight’s showcase. Yes, he has been brilliant in the tournament so far. Yes, he went close to the track record in the semis. Yes, he could quite easily have won the Derby this year were it not for a total hash of the start in the Semis. So all-in-all he looks like he has one paw on the trophy but it is that last “Yes” that perturbs me: he is just not as good out of trap five. Indeed, he seems to be improving when not drawn in six as he has won twice in the competition with the orange jacket on but with Guinness Dusty capable of pinging and Millwards Matt having decent early, Phoenix will need a ping himself to lead the outside and that to me is not an odds-on shot. If he leads it will probably be all-over but that inclusion of the word probably shows that Sky is still quick enough to live with Phoenix’s pace and with his draw and the prices, it seems a no-brainer to side with Lister’s former superstar to show that he is indeed nearly the dog he was.

So there you go, a mammoth dog blog for you today but the quality of the card and intriguing nature of the races justifies such analysis in my opinion! As ever please tweet or comment if you have any opinion’s on the dog blog and I’m sure you will as the kennel has been lively with gossip over Jimmy’s selections this week. Let’s hope Paddy wins for me or I’ll never hear the end of it!

Enjoy the racing,

Jimmy

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Coral Greyhound Olympic Heats and Antepost Thoughts

Well, two weeks is a long time in greyhound racing and after my holidays I’ve returned to see how some of my colleagues have put in some great performances recently. Whilst I was running round having a wail of a time there have been some exhillirating battles on both sides of the Irish sea which brings me to the epic Irish Derby final; watching Skywalker Puma in full flight was a joy to behold as he picked up the courageous Cuil Cougar but the best moment over the past few weeks has to be the reaction of connections to Smiler Jack’s victory who was mightily impressive in the Champion Stakes. Could he rectify his mistake in the heats and ping from the red box? Of course he could! Then followed a tremendously brave first bend to squeeze past the unfortunate Be Real and it was all over bar the shouting and tears from his emotional trainer. It was great to see such passion and sheer joy shown on the screens!

So as that tournament ends, another begins at Hove tonight on Racing Post TV with a great line-up for a Category Two tournament. What better time to start a competition called the Greyhound Olympic after the success of Team GB this summer. It’s about time us dogs started getting some praise for the training hours that we put in like these human athletes and its disappointing how a bidding war for TV rights between the BBC and Channel 4 hasn’t materialised for this Olympic competition. Anyway, I am still proud of my colleagues achievements whatever the outcome of our Olympics and here’s a dog’s thoughts on the heats:

19:46 – Heat 1

Demonstrating the class of this field is the fact that Sawpit Sensation is in double-figure odds to win this tournament despite being one of the best in-form dogs in the country over a middle-distance. He lit up Shelbourne Park in the Irish Derby with some explosive performances to reach the Quarter-Finals and his unfortunate withdrawal due to a trivial injury was terribly unlucky as he looked a dog who was destined to qualify all the way to the final: who knows what would have happened if he had turned second to Cuil Cougar! Besides thinking about that hypothetical situation, he has a tremendous draw to demonstrate why he impressed our Irish neighbours so much in their premier competition. His back-straight pace is frightening! With Millwards Blag having a far from ideal draw in the red box for him, he is more than likely going to hinder the chances of Holycross Prince who would have to reproduce his last run round the Hove track to get competitive which is unlikely. Sensation looks plotted up here to continue his winning run in the UK to six from six and odds-against quotes should be pounced upon as fast as I used to come out of the boxes!

20:02 – Heat 2

This is an interesting heat which may be over at the boxes if Bridge Honcho gets a flier, as he would then surely go on to justify the support he has had for the race. His guarantee of an early-lead is questionable though as he has mid-to-wide galloper Hugo You Go on his inside who coarses the hare and has flown from the boxes in his last two outings before being picked up over the 575m distance at Romford which is too long for him. Further question marks surround Honcho’s trapping consistency as he was a notoriously tardy trapper in Ireland and this flaw seems to be creeping back into his game in the UK with his early-pace often being hampered by being left behind at the boxes: he is worth taking on. A true track-stalwart looks the call in Kilmore Say Go who loves this track nearly as much as I did and is written off round this South-Coast track at your peril. He beat Honcho recently at odds of 4/1 and so surely looks value for a repeat at odds of 4/1 (bookies really are unimaginative at times aren’t they!).

20:18 – Heat 3

Regular readers of the dog blog will know that the Lolly is not a massive fan of Sakara Star but his recent form figures are encouraging with him utilising his undoubted scintillating pace to win more races recently. His limitations remain though as although he won his last race, it does not paint the whole story as he actually ran into the crowding at the third bend instead of running round it and should have won more emphatically than he did so. In saying that he is always a huge danger! Another dog that failed to impress last time out was Maireads Dandy who’s Irish reputation went before him in his debut round here in a facile success before stepping up in trip to what seemed his ideal course and distance of 575m at Romford: he did not live up to expectations and ran very flat. A dog should always be forgiven for one bad performance (we aren’t machines you know – although at times I did a good job of creating the illusion I was!) but the best option in a tight heat is to rely on Tullna Hawk breaking better than he has done and to build up a winning advantage at his local track. Hawk is a nice sort who rarely loses me too many of my beloved doggie treats.

20:34 – Heat 4

Wow! This heat has the look of the Sussex Cup final about it and therefore the quotes of 9/4 on Airlie Impact (who was sent off odds-on in that final) look huge to my eyes. There is a question over his fitness and the fact he ran a shocker in the aforementioned final (remember a dog’s allowed one bad race – just the one though!) but he loves it round here and drawn in six he should get a great run round the outside tonight. The unproven but highly-rated Britania Richard could be anything but his presence might just halt Westmead Maldini’s progress enough throughout the race to stop Maldini spoiling the party as he is never one to ignore in any race. Another that requires a lot of thought is why Mark My Words is such a big price (around 8/1) over arguably his ideal trip; yes he has been a little flat of late but he looks way too underrated in this line-up and will surely have some shrewd support at some stage. Speaking of shrewd support, Impact is well worth many of my doggie treats tonight as he should surely be closer to evens than he is.

20:50 – Heat 5

On looking at this heat there was one question that sprung to mind: Lenson Bob, how far? It is of course wrong to assume anything is a foregone conclusion in greyhound racing (ask backers of 1/10 Bayllmac Eske and 1/8 Farloe Tango earlier in the year!) but it is hard to envisage any other eventuality than a facile trap-to-line success for Bob here. His ability against top class opponents is questionable and he will need to prove himself to get competitive in the competition whole, but this looks nearly as certain as Mario Balotelli taking a penalty kick and the mercurial and at most times perplexing talent has even been heard in the City training ground asking people: Why always Bob?

21:06 – Heat 6

So here he is, the greyhound of the moment, Ballymac Eske. If Lenson Bob has a penalty kick, this race is effectively a tap-in from two yards that even Michael Owen could score these days despite reports he is due to start up-front for Stoke at the weekend with his trademark zimmerframe (quite a football-related theme today I know – you thought greyhounds were just interested in hares and exceptionally comfortable sofas!). Anyway, Eske’s step up to all-aged company should go without any problems for the speed-machine himself and although his record is 0 from 2 at Hove, he should get his campaign off to an impressive start today. The interesting runner is the strong Droopys Xavier who could run well for each-way backers and I’m going to break a bone in half to have him to come second at over 3/1: I just hope he can see the hare for long enough!

Antepost Thoughts

Quotes of 5/4 seem far too short for Ballymac Eske as he has proven in his brief career that he is beatable and their are some nice sorts with good form round Hove in this field; there is no doubt if he leads each race that he will be extremely difficult to beat however. Regular dog blog readers will know that Lolly loves a bit of value and with Eske being so short, there is plenty around. I woke up this morning to hear that Sawpit Sensation was 20/1 and my paws couldn’t turn on the computer fast enough to try and put an entire week’s supply of ‘Dentastix’ on him each-way (a dog’s got to look after his teeth you know!) but I was disappointed he was now 16/1 and decided to wait to see if he went out again. After a brief nap on the sofa, I then discovered he was 14/1 and cursing my incessant need for forty winks I am now reluctantly going to leave him off my antepost selections as his value is now about right to me. He will no doubt go on to show 14/1 is still too big on him but I much prefer the 10/1 about Airlie Impact. He is a dog that can win from the front or use his back-straight pace to haul in his rivals on this galloping circuit and he looks value to at least reach the final. If Eske makes any mistakes in the competition and is eliminated, the 10/1 on Impact becoming Olympic Champion will look huge and his efforts might just sneak him onto the ever-growing list of Sports Personality of the Year contenders. Impact has far more personality in the kennels than Wiggins but maybe I’m biased!

So there are a dog’s thoughts on the Greyhound Olympics and hopefully some of my selections will pick up gold medals tonight. I’m particularly looking forward to the Opening Ceremony at Hove tonight with rumours of Britain’s Got Talent winner Pudsey doing a special routine for the crowds, but despite the fact I am not jealous at all of his ability to walk backwards and dance to music – he can’t trap as fast as I can, can he?

Enjoy the racing,

Jimmy